Man Utd v Arsenal: Carry on Emmanuel...into the next round

FA Cup / Tareq Quiroz / 15 February 2008 / 1

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TQ tells us why he expects lots of goals, few cards and Arsenal to progress

There are times in a season when the talking has to stop and for everyone to let the results tell the story. This time is upon us. With 26 games gone in the Premier League and the Champions League at the last 16 stage we really are into the prize giving stage of the season. More importantly this weekend, it's time for the fifth round of the FA Cup.

Man Utd and Arsenal will do battle at the Theatre of Dreams on Saturday afternoon in a bid to progress through to the last eight of the FA Cup. Even that doesn't do the significance of the event justice as this is about far more than progression to the next phase of the best domestic cup competition in the world. Despite what pundits, managers and the media in general might say, this game is pivotal to the mind-set that these two teams take into such a crucial stage of the season.

There is a lot of talk about what sort of team Arsenal in particular will put out. Don't be swayed too much by that as Wenger will be going all out to win this match with a strong Arsenal team. Neither club will want a replay but you cannot get away from the fact that they are the best two teams in the country and there is very little to choose between them. A point clearly demonstrated in the 2-2 draw between them at the Emirates in November last year. It took a late Gallas equaliser that day to share the points but it was no more than Arsenal deserved.

The Match Odds market reflects a degree of uncertainty surrounding how this match may pan out. Three of the last five FA Cup meetings between these two sides have ended in a draw and I can see that trend continuing on Saturday. The Draw is currently available at [3.3] and is my main recommendation for this week's premier cup tie. A further benefit of this selection is that it will undoubtedly be a tight game with plenty of trading options.

Man Utd will be desperate to bounce back from the loss to Man City last week and you can expect the match to take on a high tempo start. United will look to push forward in numbers and that may leave the door open to an Arsenal counter attack. Bucking the previous cup trends expect this game to have goals. There will be a certain element of freedom away from the Premier League and you can be sure that it will be an attractive game of football. The market that catches my eye is Over/Under 3.5 Goals and I cannot get away from a bet on Over 3.5 Goals. It is currently trading at [4.2] and is one to be on.

In years gone by, clashes between these two clubs have been pretty fiery. It was always a good excuse for Keane and Vieira to vent their dislike for one another and you would be guaranteed fireworks. These sets of players don't quite have that and although these games are anything but friendly I would expect a low card count. With the history factored in you can expect the 9pts and Above option in the Bookings Odds market to trade far too short. I fancy two or maybe three cards maximum so the bet has to be a lay of 9pts and Above.

Having sat on the fence a little in regards as to who may win on Saturday I feel honour bound to at least pick the winner of the tie. The To Qualify market allows you to bet on who will progress to the next stage of the competition, including possibilities such as a replay, extra-time and penalty shoot-out. Here you have to fancy Arsenal at odds of around [2.5] in the belief that they may be catching Man Utd at just the right time. I feel that Utd's usually incredibly tight defence is looking a little shakier of late and that will be their undoing at some point during the tie.

You could bill this game as so many things - Ferguson v Wenger, second v first, Ronaldo v Adebayor, north v south and I am sure you can think of a few more too. None of that hype will matter come Saturday afternoon and it will be down to that one bit of quality or stroke of luck to decide the tie. Whatever the result, it promises to be a humdinger of a cup tie and is not to be missed. Let's hope ref Alan Wiley doesn't spoil it and keeps those cards in his pocket!

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Graeme | 16 February 2008

I don't get this advice at all. You say a draw and then you say over 3.5 goals. Only scores, 2-2, 3-3 will be able to win that and they are rare compared to 0-0 and 1-1.

Well done on the overs though.