Man City v Brighton: Citizens can march on

Dave Tindall
05 April 2019

Manchester City boss Pep Guardiola

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Manchester City can reach another Wembley final by beating Brighton in their FA Cup last four showdown, says Dave Tindall...

"With the games coming thick and fast, it's a real exercise in plate spinning for Guardiola. Pragmatism is kicking in and City look happy enough to just win games rather than run up cricket scores."

1pt Man City to win 2-0 at 6.05/1

Man City v Brighton
Saturday, 17:30
Live on BBC One

City looking four-midable

After returning to the top of the Premier League on Wednesday night, Manchester City are just 4.84/1 to win Four Trophies this season.

They already have one in the bag after beating Chelsea on penalties in the League Cup final and make a swift return to Wembley to take on surprise semi-finalists Brighton.

City's Quadruple bid took a huge wobble in the quarter-finals when trailing 2-0 at Swansea with just over 20 minutes left but persistence, class and some old-fashioned luck with an offside winner took them over the line.

Prior to that they'd smashed 17 goals in their previous three ties so a single goal against Brighton would make City the first side since Chelsea in 2011/12 to hit the 20-goal mark in the same campaign.

City were stunned by Wigan in the following year's final so we need to go back to 2010/11 to find the last time they lifted the FA Cup.

Seagulls have mixed memories

The 1982/83 season is a significant one in the history of Brighton.

That was the last time they reached the FA Cup final, beating City en route in round four before losing a replay to Manchester United after a 2-2 thriller - "and Smith must score" - in the original final.

The other dark twist was that Brighton had suffered relegation prior to the final and there are worrying echoes this time.

Once more Brighton are heading to Wembley - although this time in a semi - and they're just five points above the drop zone.

They reached the last four after wins over Bournemouth, West Brom, Derby and, most dramatically, Millwall.

If City left diced with a quarter-final exit, Brighton went right to the brink but came from 2-0 down at the New Den with just two minutes left to force extra-time before winning the penalty shootout 5-4.

Brighton written off

Man City are just 1.141/7 to get it done in 90 minutes - something they couldn't manage in the League Cup final against Chelsea. Brighton are are massive 29.028/1 to win in regulation time while The Draw is 11.010/1.

In the 'To Qualify' market, Man City are just 1.081/12 to make it through while Brighton can be backed at 12.011/1.

That's somewhat insulting to Brighton, a Premier League side, and some may be happy to chance their arm at 28/1.

There isn't much encouragement to be found in head-to-heads however. City ran out 2-0 winners at the Etihad in September while Pep's men scored 3-1 (home) and 2-0 victories (away) last season.

City may settle for narrow win

With the games coming thick and fast, it's a real exercise in plate spinning for Guardiola and, so far, he's juggling his starting line-ups and getting it just right.

But, as a result, pragmatism is kicking in and City look happy enough to just win games rather than run up cricket scores. That's shown in the last two results - 2-0 victories over Fulham and Cardiff.

At a less busy period in their schedule, City fans would have expected their side to smash five or more past one or even both of those two bottom-three teams but getting the job done has become the priority and understandably so.

A third 2-0 win would come as no surprise at all against a Brighton side that has kept City to that exact scoreline in two of the last three meetings.

Expect low card count

Brighton have been involved in two potentially tetchy games of late - the local derby against Southampton and a trip to Chelsea.

But there was not a single booking at Stamford Bridge on Wednesday while just one Brighton player was shown a yellow card in the 1-0 loss to Southampton (three bookings in match).

A look at the disciplinary table shows City as the second cleanest side in the top-flight so it will be a surprise if they bump the card count up.

There were three bookings in the meeting at the Etihad (all to Brighton players) while the card make-ups between the pair last season were one and two.

That's just six in the three meetings so, despite the occasion, I'm happy to back Under 30 bookings points at 13/10.

The ref is Anthony Taylor, who showed just two yellows in the Manchester derby earlier this season.

Same Game Multi

There's no end of possible combinations on the City side. Sergio Aguero to score in a City win (90 mins) is clear odds-on and we've not quite hit the even-money mark if switching him with Raheem Sterling so enthusiasm is tempered.

Bernardo Silva is a more interesting option given that he's scored in his last three games and it's 3.29 the Portuguese star nets in a City win.

City have kept six clean sheets in their last eight matches so I'm struggling to find a scorer option for Brighton. And it's why I'm not really tempted to back Both Teams to Score 'Yes' at 2.962/1.

Jurgen Locadia has scored in the last two rounds against Millwall and Derby but will he get even a sniff of goal against City?

Opta stat

Man City have had nine different goalscorers in the FA Cup this season, last having 10 different players net at least once for them in the competition back in 2010-11, when they last lifted the trophy at Wembley.

Dave Tindall's P/L, 2018/19

Staked: 119pts
Returned: 97.97pts
P/L: -21.03pts

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