Liverpool v Plymouth
Sunday January 8, 13:30 kickoff
Live on BT Sport 2
Liverpool are having a fine season, lying second in the Premier League and possibly benefiting from not playing in Europe - something manager Jurgen Klopp will be detailed to correct with Champions League qualification.
For now, however, the Reds are embroiled in plenty of cup action aside from their fantastic league run (just two league defeats). In the next few days, they have the first leg of the EFL Cup semi-final against Southampton. Wembley is close, then, but any manager will tell you that the FA Cup is preferable to the League version.
Despite that, Klopp is reportedly likely to drop most of his senior players. Philippe Coutinho will not play any part after a return from injury (making the Opta stat that he's scored in his last three FA Cup appearances have to wait for another day), plus Daniel Sturridge and James Milner not being risked. Goalkeeper Loris Karius is more likely to start, but has been criticised heavily for his performances.
One commentator remarked that Liverpool shouldn't have any trouble getting past the Pilgrims, but they might have trouble defending against Graham Carey, who creates a lot and who has scored 10 goals, too, and won't be in awe of a large crowd having played in the Scottish Premier League.
Derek Adams' side are also second - in League Two. They have led the division for a long time, having also done so until around this time last year, before falling away and eventually losing in the play-off final.
They required a replay and extra time against bottom club Newport to reach this stage, one of four games in their last seven in which they kept a clean sheet. A repeat of that would seem difficult at Anfield right now.
Liverpool's task should not be underestimated, as they drew 2-2 with Plymouth's Devon rivals Exeter last season, albeit that was away.
The hosts are very short at 1.21/5, but for good reason: they have not lost at home yet this season and have conceded one goal in four cup ties, against Tottenham, while the clean sheet wins came against lower league opponents.
Striker Divok Origi, 21, will surely regard this as another chance to impress, as Klopp sends out a side which will be strongly influenced by under-23s. Klopp might like to remember that Havant & Waterlooville gave Anfield a bit of a scare in 2008, eventually losing 5-2 having led twice. However, Liverpool have never lost to fourth tier opposition in the FA Cup, state Opta.
The big day out by the lower opposition should never be discounted. Adams, who led his Ross County side to a Scottish FA Cup final, is glad the boot is on the other foot from being favourites each week in League Two. But bucking the trend of losing their last 11 games against top-flight opponents (Opta reveal) seems a very tall order, reflected by the odds of 22.021/1. 8.07/1 for the draw? Nice if you think they can hold out.
Over 3.5 goals
As Liverpool have scored at least three goals in five of their 11 home Premier League games, it seems reasonable to think the match could produce over 3.5 goals @ 2.265/4, even if one of those is a Plymouth consolation. Even if the visitors were to score early, Klopp will surely have enough in reserve from the bench to turn the game around.
It should be noted that Plymouth have the second strongest away record in League Two, with eight wins, and the best away goal difference of +8, scoring 16 and conceding 8, but you would expect whoever Liverpool put out to make Yann Songo'o and Sonny Bradley look pedestrian centre-backs, such is the class that Liverpool are showing at present.
Is it worth a punt on one of the Plymouth players scoring first? To do so, you feel they might have to net from an early mistake. And they don't seem to score early goals. Maybe they can against unconfident goalkeeper Karius. Carey seems the best shot at 16.5 with Jake Jervis not far behind for the visitors at 19.018/1.
But if we are looking for the more likely home player to score, while Adam Lallana is someone who might play and is 6.611/2, Origi seems a better starting point. He has three goals in four cup starts and another four in 17 Premier League games (5 starts and 12 as a substitute).
Referee Paul Tierney was promoted to the Select Group of referees in 2016 and has refereed a handful of Premier League games, but not the likes of Liverpool at the top end. He refereed Plymouth's 1-0 win over Portsmouth in the League Two play-off semi-finals last season. He doesn't seem to be overly prone to red cards, but one stat of interest is that he is showing yellow cards at an average of 4 a game so far in 2016-17, compared to 3 per game average last season. If things go Liverpool's way swiftly, he might have an easy day too, not requiring a high number of cards. Consider under 2.5 cards and look for 1.910/11.
Our Plymouth v Liverpool FA Cup Replay Betting Preview is behind the link.
Back over 3.5 goals @ 2.265/4
Back Divok Origi for first goalscorer @ 6.611/2
Back under 2.5 cards @ 1.910/11