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Liverpool v Everton: Origi looks best option in Anfield guessing game

Dave Tindall
04 January 2020

Jurgen Klopp has bigger fish to fry

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Liverpool and Everton lock horns again in the third round of the FA Cup and Dave Tindall is here to guide you through Sunday's showdown at Anfield...

"Origi has a superb record against Everton, scoring in all four of his five Anfield matches against the Toffees, including a superb brace in last month's 5-2."

1pt Divock Origi To Score at 2.6413/8

Liverpool v Everton
Sunday 5 January, 17:30
Live on BBC One

Reds have poor FA Cup record under Klopp

Liverpool are European champions, Club World champions and hold a massive 13 point lead at the top of the Premier League.

They also scored a 5-2 home win over Everton last month while the Toffees haven't won a league game at Anfield since 1999.

And yet this is the FA Cup, a tournament which Jurgen Klopp... how shall we put it... doesn't exactly ring in his diary at the start of each campaign.

Perhaps that has filtered through to his players and, in two of the last three seasons, Liverpool crashed out at home to Wolves, then a Championship side, and West Brom, a team which went on to be relegated.

Klopp showed his priorities again recently when, rather than mix and match, he went for broke (successfully) in the Club World Cup while playing a full team of kids in the League Cup tie at Aston Villa. The youngsters did well to a point but were ultimately thrashed 5-0.

The big guessing game here is what mix of first-teamers and youngsters he goes with this time? And how many big guns will be on the bench just in case?

"I have to make sensible decisions," said Klopp in his Friday press conference, marking our cards that plenty of the usual names will be given a rest as he focuses on the Premier League (Liverpool's next three games are potentially tough ones against Spurs, Man Utd and Wolves).

This could be the Toffees' time

Everton have a shocking record against Liverpool with no wins in the last 20 against their neighbours. That splits into 10 draws and 10 defeats.

And that includes a last-gasp 2-1 defeat at Anfield two seasons ago when they were undone by a Roy of the Rovers script which saw Liverpool's new-money signing Virgil van Dijk head a last-gasp winner.

But some Toffees fans are seeing this as their best opportunity in years to reverse that run and there are good reasons why.

First, Liverpool are vulnerable in this competition and that will apply surely again with Klopp likely to rotate heavily.

But secondly, there is the Carlo Ancelotti factor.

Not only has he made a bright start at Goodison - two wins and a narrow 2-1 defeat at Manchester City - he's taken four points out of six against a full-strength Liverpool in the Champions League.

That was with Napoli but clearly he knows a thing or two about how to negate Liverpool's way of working.

"We will try and progress in this competition, everybody knows how important it is," says Ancelotti. Well, maybe not to everyone and this could be Everton's big chance.

Reds odds-against

To give some context, Liverpool were 1.42/5 to win last month's Premier League game, with Everton out at 9.417/2.

This time, Liverpool are odds-against at 2.226/5, Everton trade at 3.3512/5 and The Draw is 3.814/5.

There are obviously two ways to play this. Take a guess at the team news and have a punt now OR wait until starting XIs are revealed but risk getting a much shorter price if, say, Liverpool are stronger than many predict.

So, can we make a decent prediction of the Reds' line-up?

Well, it seems pretty certain that new signing Takumi Minamino will get a first run-out although Klopp says he is "not 100% sure".

If the Japanese star does play, Klopp won't just surround him with a load of kids but will Liverpool have enough first-teamers on show to suggest backing them at around 6/5 is any sort of bet?

Originally, I was all set to wade into Everton if they were being underestimated against a less-than full strength Liverpool but is 12/5 really big enough away from home, especially if Klopp has get-out-of-jail options on the bench?

Overall, I'd rather wait and see the teams before pulling the trigger.

Origi can add to stellar derby record

Divock Origi has a superb record against Everton, scoring in all four of his five Anfield matches against the Toffees, including a superb brace in last month's 5-2.

He looks a likely starter in Klopp's shuffled pack and, to help with the guessing game, it may be worth referring to the team the German boss sent out in the bonkers 5-5 draw with Arsenal in the League Cup.

Liverpool lined up: Kelleher, Gomez, Van den Berg, Milner, Keita, Oxlade-Chamberlain, Lallana, Elliott, Brewster, Origi.

Despite not having the usual supply lines, Origi still managed to score twice that night so I'm happy to play him at 2.6413/8 to get on the scoresheet against Everton yet again.

Takumi Minamino, who scored in Salzburg's 4-3 defeat at Anfield earlier this season, is 3.55/2 for a debut goal and it's not the worst price.

Of course, Everton's line-up isn't wholly predictable either but, even if it's close to its strongest, Dominic Calvert-Lewin at 2.285/4 and Richarlison at 2.6813/8 don't quite look big enough.

Perhaps there is an unlikely Everton hero in the ranks. Tom Davies perhaps or Yerri Mina nutting one in from a corner. Those two are 11.010/1 and 14.013/1 respectively.

Goals could come early

The 5-2 win for Liverpool last month isn't exactly in character with this fixture as five of the previous six league meetings had featured two goals or fewer.

The two Liverpool v Ancelotti's Napoli games both produced two goals so there is an argument that Under 2.5 goals at 2.546/4 is too big.

Overs is the clear favourite at 1.635/8 and, to be honest, I'd expect it to land.

The market also expects BTTS to land and that trades at just 1.538/15 although I think that's a likely outcome.

My preferred option is that the likely changes in defence lead to early confusion and hence early goals.

Over 1.5 First Half Goals is 2.47/5 and that's a price worth playing.

Some supporting evidence would include the five first-half goals in the Liverpool v Arsenal League Cup game and the four in the opening 45 against Villa.

Although the second was an extreme example of 'not the real Liverpool', the team against Arsenal (shown above) was a mixed bag and the goals flew in at both ends.

I don't expect five again but two goals in the first half seems a reasonable ask.

Opta stat

Everton have played five away matches against Liverpool in the FA Cup - four have been drawn and gone to replays, though the most recent match in January 2018 was won 2-1 by the Reds.

Dave Tindall's P/L, 2019/20

Staked: 70pts
Returned: 77.94pts
P/L: +7.94pts

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