FA Cup Tips: Birmingham and Leeds to be among disappointed hosts

Michael Lintorn
08 January 2016

Steve Evans lost his only previous reunion with his former club Rotherham in November

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Michael Lintorn uses the Opta stats to identify three away clubs worth backing in the FA Cup third round...

"Leeds have lost their last three FA Cup ties without scoring a single goal."

Recommended Bet: Back Rotherham to win at Leeds @ 4.3100/30

Birmingham v Bournemouth (Saturday, 15:00)

Bournemouth won both league meetings with the Blues last season, including an 8-0 win at St Andrew's

The Cherries were brutal to Birmingham in 2014/15, scoring 12 goals across two clashes, with both results crucial to their Championship triumph as the 8-0 lifted them from eighth to fourth and the 4-2 propelled them from second to top. Now the Blues can perhaps similarly aid an FA Cup challenge.

Despite pushing for a play-off place, Gary Rowett's men are far from infallible at home, losing five of their last ten matches. They have also faced Premier League sides four times in cup competitions since the start of 2014 and were beaten every time, with three of those setbacks coming as hosts against Swansea, Sunderland and West Brom.

Recommended Bet: Back Bournemouth to win @ 2.0421/20

Eastleigh v Bolton (Saturday, 15:00)

Bolton are unbeaten in 19 FA Cup games against non-league opposition (W16 D3)

It has been such an abject campaign for Bolton that even their chances of defeating a club playing at a level three divisions below their own are rated at slimmer than 50%. However, they finally overcame a second-tier team two fixtures ago in Blackburn, so have a bit of momentum, and over a century has passed since their previous reverse to a non-league adversary (Chesterfield in 1911).

Eastleigh would arguably have been in a better position if they were drawn away, both on account of the opportunity of turning the Macron Stadium against their side and because their two FA Cup victories and seven of their National League successes came on the road. By contrast, they have lost four in nine in front of their fans.

Recommended Bet: Back Bolton to win @ 2.3411/8

Leeds v Rotherham (Saturday, 15:00)

Leeds have lost their last three FA Cup ties without scoring a single goal

If you combine the above trend with the fact that Rotherham have netted in nine consecutive FA Cup encounters, you have an instant reason to believe that the Millers can prevail as outsiders when bosses Steve Evans and Neil Redfearn oppose their last employers, but it certainly isn't the only one.

The visitors have climbed from 24th to 21st in the Championship over the past month and a half with four wins in nine and that run was launched with a formbook-defying 1-0 victory at Elland Road. The Whites don't carry as much momentum into the FA Cup and are on a three-match winless streak.

Recommended Bet: Back Rotherham to win @ 4.3100/30

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