Hartlepool v Salford City: Home advantage offers no upset insurance

Michael Lintorn
15 December 2015

Ronnie Moore and Hartlepool are lower down the League Two table than they anticipated

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Though Hartlepool didn't lose away in this FA Cup second-round tie, they remain vulnerable in the return meeting...

"Salford City might be worried that their best chance passed them by in drawing the home tie 1-1, but Hartlepool have actually taken fewer points from their last eight league fixtures as hosts (five) than their last six on the road (six)."

Lay Hartlepool to win @ 1.738/11

Hartlepool 1.728/11 v Salford City 5.49/2; The Draw 4.1
Tuesday, 19:45
Live on BT Sport 2

Hartlepool

Ronnie Moore did an exceptional job following his mid-season arrival at Hartlepool last term, keeping them up from the precarious position of 14 points from 24 games - they were rock bottom throughout weeks 15 to 38 - by inspiring a quite dramatic transformation.

However, it seems that he was guilty of a little run-before-you-can-walk syndrome in talking up his revitalised side's promotion prospects over the summer though.

It all started wonderfully as the momentum of the great escape bled into three successive wins to open, but 12 defeats in 17 since leave them in 20th with 20 points. They have a decent gap to the drop zone, so relegation isn't an immediate concern, yet they are 13 points adrift of the play-offs.

Salford City

Unlike the other non-league teams to hit the headlines in the last decade like AFC Wimbledon and FC United, Salford City didn't become a big deal due to their ties to historic clubs, modern-football disillusion or a desire for more fan power and grass-roots involvement.

Instead, the reason that they are on the map is due to the profile of their investors, with ownership divided between Singaporean billionaire Peter Lim and former Manchester United teammates Phil Neville, Gary Neville, Nicky Butt, Paul Scholes and Ryan Giggs.

Since they took charge in summer 2014, they have overseen a Northern Division One North title triumph and are now third in the Northern Premier - two tiers below the Conference - indicating that their ambitious target of Championship football within 15 years is feasible. The most notable result yet came in this competition though, when they defeated League Two's Notts County 2-0.

Match Odds

Salford City might be worried that their best chance passed them by in drawing the home tie 1-1, but Hartlepool have actually taken fewer points from their last eight league fixtures as hosts (five) than their last six on the road (six). In addition to that, the non-league side have been much better away in their division, prevailing in all bar one of their outings.

Moore's men have plenty of previous when it comes to screwing up against lower-league opposition at Victoria Park too, flopping in three of their last five such FA Cup encounters. The Monkey Hangers lost 2-1 to Blyth Spartans at this stage last season, were held 0-0 by Vauxhall Motors in 2010 and beaten by Kettering in 2009.

Under 2.5 Goals

Both of Hartlepool's FA Cup matches in 2015/16 and each of Salford's past five delivered under 2.5 goals, indicating that there is value in backing this clash to serve up two strikes or less at 2.0621/20.

Recommended Bet:

Lay Hartlepool to win @ 1.738/11

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