Gillingham v West Ham: Back a second win for the new Moyes regime

Dan Fitch
03 January 2020

Will David Moyes inspire West Ham when they face Gillingham?

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Dan Fitch is not expecting an FA Cup upset when West Ham visit Gillingham, even though the Gills have been much improved in recent weeks...

"Gillingham have only scored twice in the last three games."

Back West Ham to beat Gillingham to nil at 3.02/1

Gillingham 5.85/1 v West Ham 1.645/8; The Draw 4.216/5
Sunday 5 January, 18:16
Live on BT Sport 1

Gills overcome poor start to find form

League One side Gillingham come into their FA Cup third round match with West Ham in the sort of form that suggests they at least have a chance of pulling off a shock.

Though only 11th in England's third tier, Gillingham have been consistent over the winter months. They have only lost once in the last 12 games (W7 D4), drawing away at Sunderland in the FA Cup first round and then beating them in the replay, during this sequence. In the second round they beat Doncaster 3-0 to reach this stage.

Steve Evans became Gillingham manager over the summer and the controversial Scot had a poor start to life at the Priestfield Stadium. Gillingham only won three of their first 17 matches (D7 L7), so the fact that Evans has managed to turn the team's form around, should be applauded.

Over the festive period Evans picked exactly the same team in the Boxing Day draw with Ipswich, the 1-0 win over Rochdale and most recently the 1-1 draw with Portsmouth. With no injuries, Evans may well again opt to name an unchanged side.

Perfect first game for Moyes

West Ham fans would have been sweating over the prospect of this match if Manuel Pellegrini was still in charge of the club but will now be hoping that the team is in safer hands.

The return of David Moyes to West Ham could not have gone better so far. His first game of his second spell as manager, saw the Hammers easily beat Bournemouth 4-0. The Cherries are in very poor form, but the margin of victory remains impressive.

If there's something that Moyes was able to rectify when he was last brought in by West Ham to turn around their season, it was their work rate and organisation. There may still be doubts as to whether he has progressive enough ideas to be a long-term solution for the East Londoners, but Moyes should at least be able to solve those familiar problems.

While there could be a bit of tinkering after a busy couple of weeks, you'd imagine Moyes would be averse to being too experimental, at a time when he is trying to rebuild the team's fragile confidence. David Martin, Jack Wilshere, Andriy Yarmolenko, Michail Antonio and Xande Silva could all be unavailable to Moyes after missing the Bournemouth game with injury.

Moyes looking for second clean sheet

West Ham are the 1.645/8 favourites, with the draw at 4.216/5 and Gillingham at 5.85/1.

If Moyes picks a fairly strong side as anticipated, then that price could be a decent starting point to find value in the away victory. West Ham are 3.02/1 to win to nil against a Gillingham side that have only scored twice in the last three games. That bet landed in West Ham's game against Bournemouth, as did the half-time/full-time victory at 2.546/4.

Lower scoring game than Bournemouth rout

Gillingham are likely to play cautiously and there is evidence that they have the defensive ability to frustrate West Ham for some time. They have kept clean sheets in seven of their last eleven games.

West Ham may well find it more difficult to score goals than they did against Bournemouth. Under 2.5 goals is 2.265/4, with the West Ham win and under 2.5 goals a tempting option at 4.47/2.

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