FA Cup / Gary Boswell / 12 December 2008 /

The Boz returns to his favoured match betting medium of one off cup games as Non-League prepares to stage the 1st Round Proper of the FA Trophy this weekend.

Apologies to all those who followed my abysmal advices in last weekend's non-league football and HURRAH for a return to cup action this weekend where I am showing a tendency this season to do much better at match bet tipping. No surprise to me that. I long since switched my serious league betting away from long term match betting and into season long portfolio management on the outright market. Regular followers of my work will have noted that by now!

The Cup, however, is a different matter with a real chance to identify a few of those David v Goliath type bets that are not only exceedingly profitable when they land but are tremendously exciting as well. I don't know about you but I get the biggest of big buzzes when the massive underdog I'm on does the business as per Barrow, Blyth and Histon in the FA Cup a fortnight ago. Whilst I think about it, I'm very sweet on Blyth winning that replay next Tuesday evening against an AFC Bournemouth side without the recently retired Darren Anderton.

The Spartans are only still in it because of the heroics of goalkeeper Mark Bell who soared to the top of The Boz's BSN goalkeepers table with two match-defining saves that kept Harry Dunn's heroes in the Cup. They went to Bournemouth for a draw and got it but they are a completely different kettle of fish at Croft Park to which Paul Simpson's Shrewsbury will testify. That 3-0 lead in 60 minutes against the League One play-off contenders was no fluke. I'm big on the Spartans and if past form is anything to go by, they won't be the odds compilers' favourites to win the game!

But back to this weekend's Trophy action where the minnows from Unibond North - DURHAM CITY - are my weekend nap at the stunningly available odds of [3.45] to beat Blue Square North play-off contenders Harrogate Town. Neil Aspin's Gate have been blowing very hot and cold of late - the 0-3 home defeat to Gainsborough was a shocker which Darren Dunning described as his 'alamo' - and won't fancy the trip North to a Durham side who are still unbeaten in the league and whose 2-2 draw in the FA Cup against the crème de la crème side in current Non-League football, Histon, was very well deserved.

Lee Collins' Cathedral side have already eliminated Halesowen and Stalybridge (who they beat 6-1!) from this competition and if ever there was a side destined to rise through the pyramid in the coming years, Durham are it. They give me the same feeling that Histon did five years ago.

With the Blue Square Premier title race starting to shape in to a slugfest between Histon and Burton Albion (which both have wonderful green sums against their names if you've followed the Boz's portfolio approach) - it is worth noting that Nigel Clough has had no problem this season getting his team eliminated from every cup competition at the earliest opportunity. A loss against Kiddy first round of the FA Cup and a 3-0 belting from BSN's AFC Telford last week in the Setanta Shield. You can't help deducing that Saturday's home tie with Farsley Celtic will feature low on the Clough priority scale. A tie which the oddsmakers have them at [1.42] to win.

That may sound like conspiracy theory which was my undoing in tipping last weekend but it does also make logical sense because there is no doubting that Burton Albion are going to have to dig deep in their league campaign to overcome the young pretenders from Histon and I rate Cloughie as astute enough to have worked out that he wants all focus on the league campaign. They had a champions swagger about them when winning at Forest Green last Saturday but I expect far less as they line up against a Celtic side who have adapted well to life back in BSN and for whom this is much more a season defining encounter. The [7.0] on Celtic looks long to me and I'll take it rather than the lay on Burton simply because a replay is the last thing that Cloughie will want.

Whilst Burton definitely do look like a side who will need to concentrate all their energies on winning the league, there is a possibility that Histon are going to be able to do as Aldershot did last year and use the Cup competitions to create a kind of 'feelgood factor' in the squad. Possible because the Stutes' squad is now rotatable and doesn't seem to be losing any quality when previous season's key players are absent.

I used to think the absence of Antonio Murray affected overall Histon performance but not so this season. And the arrival of 19 year old Brentford loanee Lanre Oyebanjo has been an example of how serious quality is constantly being brought into the Stute squad now. It was a late Oyebanjo strike that scuppered my opposition to Histon last weekend and I was immensely impressed with his pitch coverage in the FA Cup tie against Leeds. He has that wonderful attribute of defensive pace and when that is allied to a mature reading of the game, it is awesome to behold.

I really rate the current Histon side and have covered them extensively in my league portfolio despite thinking that maybe Cloughie's nous might just do it for Burton.

In the Cup though, Histon have proved themselves tenfold and look a decent price at [2.12] to do local rivals Cambridge United at the Glassworld - a game assistant manager John Beck is certain to be taking very seriously indeed. Histon will want to win it for Becks!

THE BOZ's RECOMMENDED BETS:

1pt BACK on Durham City to beat Harrogate Town at [3.45] or greater
1pt BACK on Farsley Celtic to beat Burton Albion at [7.0] or greater
1pt BACK on Histon to beat Cambridge United at [2.12] or greater

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