FA Cup Third Round Betting: Wrexham to do non league proud

FA Cup / Gary Boswell / 04 January 2012 /

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The Wrexham dragon can Brighton up the weekend for non league fans

"Arguably, Fleetwood do look the most likely to cause the upset with the home patch advantage and [5.0] at Highbury is a price to seriously consider. I like current form though as the best friend to have on your side when whopping odds are on offer so my prediction for the side to scupper the League club acca bet are Wrexham. "

The Boz dons his betting strategist hat as he ponders how best to play the four remaining non league clubs in the 3rd round of the FA Cup.

Everton [1.1] Draw [11.5] Tamworth [40.0]
Brighton [1.48] Draw [4.6] Wrexham [7.8]
Fleetwood [4.5] Draw [3.7] Blackpool [1.85]
Sheff Utd [1.2] Draw [7.6] Salisbury [18.0]

There will be those punters looking no further than the League club four timer which is set to pay around [3.6] on the Betfair multiple. On paper that looks a value play as all four non league survivors have been cast a stiff hurdle to clamber over if they are to reach the fourth round.

This is the FA Cup though. The great leveller. There surely has to be at least one shock to bring that bet down and with odds like those above on offer, I set to trying to work out where the 'superior' league lot were most likely to come a cropper.

Easiest to dismiss from the potential banana skin mishap are Danny Wilson's Blades at Bramhall Lane. Seriously sharp at the moment with six league wins on the trot and Richie Cresswell a quality prowling menace that the Lilywhites are going to find very hard to handle. Languishing at the lower end of BSS, Salisbury are already in their cup final and have captured some serious scalps to get here. They are playing well and the Boxing Day snuff of Dorchester away from home will give their followers some belief that miracles can occur. Stuffed with youngsters of whom Adam Kelly looks a particular talent likely to want to use this as his shop window, I could imagine the amazing result were Blades to put in a stinker.No suggestion of that though with the league form they are currently in. A fraction of that on show and carnage will ensue. The Blades are a banker for me.

Oddsmakers consider Everton likewise. The wide open spaces of Goodison Park are likely to favour the Toffees who face a Lambs prepared for the slaughter, having lost five of their last seven since qualifying for this fixture. Been saving themselves? Marcus Law would have us think so and certainly the current slump is strange as Tamworth were proving a tough BSBP nut a month ago. The 0-0s achieved by both Exeter and Burton against Manchester United in recent years and the similar gotten by Nuneaton against Premier League Middlesbrough are reminders of what can occur if the Conference squad set up to frustrate. And there is no better side than Tamworth for that tactic in BSBP. At [10.0], the draw would be a very appealing bet were it not for the doubt about the Lambs' current form. Five shipped against Alfreton on Boxing Day and you really have to subscribe to the 'focussed on their cup match' theory to explain that away positively. The real clincher is Goodison Park though. Burton achieved the shut out at Old Trafford so it is a possible, but on balance, you have to say unlikely.

The other two are the ones you can really look at for inspiration. Gus Poyet's Brighton are in freefall and won't fancy the form in which Andy Morrell brings his Welsh Dragons down to the South coast. This fixture looks very similar to me to the Crawley-Derby game of last season - yardstick wise - and it only needs the flow to go Wrexham's way for a major shock to ensue.

Fleetwood are also comparable to last season's Crawley and the Fylde coast has been licking its lips for weeks now since local rivals Blackpool's number came up out of the co-incidence cabinet. The Cod Army have been practising over Xmas with back-to-back derby humdingers against title rivals Southport and the way they came back from 2-0 down against Yeovil to score the next four goals will have Ian Holloway treating the tie with utmost respect.

Arguably, Fleetwood do look the most likely to cause the upset with the home patch advantage and [5.0] at Highbury is a price to seriously consider. I like current form though as the best friend to have on your side when whopping odds are on offer so my prediction for the side to scupper the League club acca bet are Wrexham. The fact that they travel to a club that can't buy a win sways me. Poyet will have had a few sleepless nights over this fixture already so [8.6] on the Dragons is massive and I'll couple it with [5.0] the draw as my recommendation for the round.

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