FA Cup Stats Review: Derby to progress with clear-cut victory

Andrew Atherley
21 January 2015

Steve McClaren will be expecting Derby to get back to their usual high standards at home

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Stats guru Andrew Atherley delves into the figures and identifies Derby and Cardiff as solid fourth-round bets...

"The key factor is Derby’s strong home form under McClaren, with a win rate of 71% in all competitions against teams from the Championship or below."

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Back Derby v Chesterfield off -1 on Asian Handicap at 2.0521/20 (1pt)

A couple of less glamorous ties may offer the best value in this weekend's FA Cup fourth round, with strong home sides Derby and Cardiff fancied to progress.

The 'Derbyshire derby' pits Championship highflyers Derby against Chesterfield, who are eighth in League One, and the hosts may not be short enough even at 1.68/13.

The odds may be influenced by the likelihood of squad rotation by Steve McClaren, which in the third round saw Derby struggle to a 1-0 home win over non-league Southport.

The counterpoint is that McClaren will be looking for a reaction to last week's home defeat by Nottingham Forest in the derby that really counts for the supporters. He might put out a more recognisably strong side this time, and in any case he can bring on the big-hitters in the second half as he did against Southport.

The key factor is Derby's strong home form under McClaren, with a win rate of 71% in all competitions against teams from the Championship or below. The figure improves as the quality of the opposition decreases, as you would expect, and Chesterfield are the worst side apart from Southport that McClaren has faced at home.

Even allowing for a drop-off in performance because of squad rotation, Derby look ahead of the odds. As 60% of their home wins under McClaren have been by two or more goals, Derby are worth trying at the bigger odds of around 2.0521/20 to cover the Asian handicap at -1, which is no bet (with stakes returned) if they win by one goal.

The Asian handicap is also the way to play Cardiff, whose home form has been good since Russell Slade took charge in October (including a 2-1 win over Saturday's opponents Reading).

Cardiff's only home defeats under Slade have been against top-six sides Brentford and Watford, with only the goalless draw against Rotherham ranking as a poor result.

Slade's Cardiff have won their other six home games and, as the new manager has been beaten only by high-class sides, they look a solid bet off scratch on the Asian handicap or on the draw no bet, which amounts to the same thing.

Those options should be available at around 1.84/5.

2014/15 P/L

Staked: 54 pts
Returned: 57.12 pts
P/L: +3.12 pts

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