FA Cup Second Round Betting: Value over emotion

FA Cup / Gary Boswell / 29 November 2011 /

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Mark Yates' Cheltenham Town have a great chance of progressing against a Luton side with other priorities

"The Hatters have underachieved in BSBP again so far this season and must quickly start to focus on the ground there to be made up. I can’t see this as priority for them in the bigger picture and think they are outclassed anyway in most areas of the park."

Betting value always outweighs emotional attachment and with that in mind Gary Boswell thinks carefully before deciding which non-league teams to side with and which to take on ahead of the second round of the FA Cup.

Fleetwood Town v Yeovil
Friday 2nd December at Highbury - kick off 7-30pm
Live on ESPN
Fleetwood [2.4] - Draw [3.5] - Yeovil [3.3]

Sign of the times that the League One strugglers are considered outsiders and all those soundbites I usually trawl out (about the gap between top non league and lower league teams closing fast and this being a one-off game where league form can be discounted) have obviously been taken heed of! So time for me to switch sides! I have always had greater allegiance to betting value than blind faith in non league and I consider Terry Skiverton's Glovers nothing short of a steal in this.

The Cod Army do have Jamie Vardy as a serious (no longer so secret) weapon but the overall class gulf of two leagues is not to be underestimated now that Skiverton has got his troops firing again as they did so successfully in the second half of last season. Last weekend's 1-0 win at Hartlepool is form good enough to see off Fleetwood and in Bondz N'Gala, the Glovers have a powerhouse who can expose the frailty of such as Shaun Beeley and Steve McNulty in the Fleetwood defence. Only three defeats on the road so far this season for the Glovers and I don't see them losing this.

Recommended bet: 2pt Lay on Fleetwood at around [2.4]

Luton Town v Cheltenham
Saturday 3rd December at Kenilworth Road - kick off 3pm
Luton [2.7]- Draw [3.5]- Cheltenham [2.6]

Prices on this are likely to fluctuate as trading hots up and Gary Brabin's Hatters are not strictly favourites as I write which is just as well really or I might have considered oddsmakers on the verge of losing their marbles!

Mark Yates' Robins are the clear class outfit of the fixture (just five defeats all season and deservedly third in League Two, some 30 places higher up the pyramid than Luton) and come into the game in excellent form after last weekend's 3-1 win at Oxford - a yardstick that has them as much clearer favourite in my book than the odds currently reflect.

The Hatters have underachieved in BSBP again so far this season and must quickly start to focus on the ground there to be made up. I can't see this as priority for them in the bigger picture and think they are outclassed anyway in most areas of the park.

Chelmsford v Macclesfield
Saturday 3rd December at Melbourne Park - kick off 15:00
Chelmsford [3.3] - Draw [3.5] - Macclesfield [2.3]

Back to the more traditional fare of non league team as screaming outsiders on their own patch and in this case, a clear reason to support the Clarets! Were this at the Moss Rose Ground, I might have gone even stronger on the Essex boys as they remain unbeaten on the road so far this season. One of those strange anomalies that their home form shows just two wins from nine with a home draw incidence of over 50% that leads to the conclusion that the way to stake this is a lay on the short price Silkmen, rather than an all out assault on the Clarets win.

Home advantage will be key however and Chelmsford come in on the back of a convincing win at Melbourne Park in the Trophy last weekend against BSS table toppers Woking and sticking six past Bromley the week before. They are in good form and have in Kezie Ibe a striker who can cope with the rise in class.This is my top tip for shock result but because of that home draw stat, I'm playing cautious!

Recommended bet: 2pt Lay on Macclesfield at around [2.3]

AFC Totton v Bristol Rovers
Sunday 4th December at Testwood Stadium - kick off 12-30pm
Live on ITV

AFC Totton [5.3] - Draw [3.9] - Bristol Rovers [1.7]

Of the three serious minnows to consider this weekend, I'd have liked to have a punt on the two Bridges. Glassboy Stourbridge in particular at [7.0] have some appeal against Stevenage simply because it's the cup whilst [22.0] about any team makes Redbridge attractive at Crawley.

Neither are hugely likely to win however and I'll keep my Romantic hat off and my betting value cap on and concentrate instead on EvoStik Southern league leaders AFC Totton, who have the distinction of featuring live on ITV, and thus give us a chance for the advantageous bet In-play.

The class gulf ought to tell in the end in this but Paul Buckle's Rovers are hardly an in-form League Two outfit and you do get the sense that they'll be nervous of treading on the banana skin. First thirty minutes likely to be very tetchy in front of the live cameras and my play is a pre-match lay on the miniscule Rovers price to be hedged back during the first quarter.

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