FA Cup Betting: Magpies can hold up the Pirates

Ian Lamont
02 November 2017

Paul Doswell, manager of Sutton United, was in the media spotlight last year in the FA Cup

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Kevin Nolan's Notts County can extend their unbeaten home record in League Two into the FA Cup when Bristol Rovers visit on Friday night says Ian Lamont, who predicts a cup upset for Hartlepool on Saturday and says Sutton United, one of last season's cup sides, are too big a price for Sunday's trip to Cambridge...

"Morecambe have failed to score in five of their last seven matches. Craig Harrison's Hartlepool, by contrast, have scored in 12 of their last 13 games, suffering just one defeat in that time."

Friday November 3 Kick off 19:45 GMT
Notts County 2.89/5 v Bristol Rovers 2.68/5; the draw 3.55/2

Darrell Clarke has had a fantastic run as as Bristol Rovers manager, taking them out of non-league football and then quickly into League One. All they need now is a cup run, but will it happen?

Rory Gaffney believes he is in the best scoring form of his life, with six in 14 games but in terms of playing time a goal every 122 minutes. Midfielder Billy Bodin has made the place his own in the past two years, the 25-year-old finally finding a place to settle.

A 2-0 victory over MK Dons brought to an end three straight defeats as the Pirates settle in mid-table, but it is worth emphasising their away record. They have beaten relegation threatened sides Bury and Northampton, but only scored one goal on their travels against any other team and suffered six defeats.

That, certainly, gives the Magpies a strong chance of taking a victory here. Undefeated at home, Kevin Nolan has warned his side they must learn to cope with the pressure of being title candidates. It is typical of this time of year that the League Two leadership changes hands every week as top team loses. For now, County are top of the pile so this represents a free weekend away from league pressures, against a team from the division above.

County's Jorge Grant feels, like Gaffney, that he has really flourished at his club, however he is on loan from Nottingham Forest which could affect his availability and his nine goals could be missed. It shouldn't matter, if Jon Stead, Shola Ameobi or Lewis Alessandra - plucked from Hartlepool in the summer - can produce instead. They are all quite capable.

County are unbeaten at home. Experienced defenders Carl Dickinson and Matt Tootle can help them keep it that way.

Recommended Bet
Back Notts County @ 2.89/5

Saturday November 4
Kick-off 15:00 GMT
AFC Wimbledon 2.111/10 v Lincoln 3.9; the draw 3.613/5

Since being promoted to League One, AFC Wimbledon have had what looked like winnable home games in the FA Cup to lower-league opposition and lost twice, to Forest Green two years ago at this stage and to Sutton United in last season's third round replay.

Both teams were from non-league, while this year their opponents are finding their feet back in League Two after a promotion season that involved an extended FA Cup run, which is presumably funding progress now. Their manager Danny Cowley is mentioned every so often as someone who could rise to higher divisions, but he's helped the Imps climb to ninth so far even with a lack of goals - just 16, the lowest of the top 17 sides in the division.

The trick has been a strong defence which has let in just 14 - four clean sheets in their last six games and just a single goal in their other two, to maintain a run of one defeat in seven. Well done to Neal Eardley, Sean Raggett, Rob Dickie and keeper Josh Vickers, the mainstays of the defensive unit.

However, the lack of goals hasn't made them the most exciting team to watch, something Cowley alluded to when saying, after the goalless draw at Crawley, that fans of the other 71 clubs probably would have booed them off because of their lack of goal threat.

It is perhaps of unfortunate timing, then, for anyone seeking goals or FA Cup thrills, that they have been drawn away to AFC Wimbledon, who have also been struggling for goals.

Just when Neal Ardley's men thought they might have turned a corner with Lyle Taylor's hat-trick giving them victory over Rotherham, they lost 1-0 each to Plymouth and Charlton to sink back down to earth. There is every possibility that the FA will be glad they introduced just one replay for the FA Cup.

Recommended Bet
Back the draw @ 3.613/5

Morecambe 2.47/5 v Hartlepool 3.613/5; the draw 3.613/5

Jeff Stelling, Hartlepool's celebrity president, had precious little to shout about on his Soccer Saturday show in the past few seasons when his side where struggling to stay afloat in League Two.

Now, things are different - and Pools might actually relish the 100 mile trip to Morecambe (rather than it feel like a relegation battle), especially as they are having a very positive season.

The top of the National League is so tight that they might sit 12th, but they are just six points off top spot.

Another strength is that they are doing what Morecambe are not - scoring. That could prove crucial here. Despite the evergreen supplier Kevin Ellison's best efforts, The Shrimps have failed to score in five of their last seven matches: Craig Harrison's charges, by contrast, have scored in 12 of their last 13 games, suffering just one defeat in that time.

Striker Rhys Oates and midfielder Jonathan Franks have a fair smattering of league experience between them. Part of their success has been retaining stalwart Nicky Featherstone in midfield and Scott Harrison at the back.

Manager Jim Bentley is probably dreading putting a side lacking confidence up against a manager (and team) whose changed tactics maintained their momentum by conjuring a win at Torquay at the weekend. Takeover talk and still being described as a "cash-strapped club" won't be helping Bentley motivate his squad - especially after he recently told them they had to start earning their wages.

Recommended Bet
Back Hartlepool @ 3.613/5

Sunday November 5
Kick-off 14:00 GMT
Cambridge United 1.910/11 v Sutton 4.67/2; the draw 4.03/1

Layers really shouldn't be underestimating Sutton United to the extent they are. Were they not watching when they defeated AFC Wimbledon (away, in a replay) and Leeds United (at home on their artificial turf) last season, before competing well with Arsenal in the fifth round?

They are challenging for promoting on the National League, while Cambridge are proving much of a muchness in League Two. It's not so hard to see the upset as the odds suggest.

Admittedly - for those thinking lightning might not strike twice - Sutton's squad is much changed from last year. But Craig Dundas, their powerfully built striker who missed out on their cup run, will surely feel it is his turn for a slice of glory after 473 appearances for the club and 102 goals. He's not quite as well built as Wycombe's Adebayo Akinfenwa but is equally a handful for defenders.

The visitors also have a player called Kieron Cadogan, whose career at Crystal Palace began alongside Wilfred Zaha but never really took off. After a series of loans he went abroad and is now enjoying a prolonged spell in a first team.

England C player Louis John, formerly of Crawley Town, has the experience to tell youngsters such as striker Tommy Wright - now there's a name to conjure with! - what to expect and the 20-year-old will relish another step up, having been one of many players of the years plucked by wily boss Paul Doswell (pictured) from lower non-league levels. He scored 50 goals for Salisbury and has five in 10 starts already for Sutton.

For me, Shaun Derry's side remain solid but unspectacular. Two goalless away draws in their last four games don't inspire much. However, the reason for their favouritism is clear: they have only lost twice at home, scoring all but one match at the Cambs Glass Stadium. Uche Ikpeazu and Jabo Ibehre will both be threats but Doswell will call on the experience of defenders Jamie Collins and Dean Beckwith, both of last year's cup run, and John, to counter what Cambridge might throw at them. I'm bypassing the draw to go full out for the away win.

Recommended Bet
Back Sutton @ 4.67/2

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