Man City v Watford
Saturday May 18, 16:00
Live on BBC One and BT Sport 2
City to get home by the single goal
One of the nice things about the FA Cup in recent years is that almost finals have been pretty competitive.
Remarkably, of the last 12, eight of them were won by a single goal after 90 minutes, with three further ones won by a single goal after extra-time and only Arsenal's 4-0 hammering of Aston Villa back in 2015 sticking out like a sore thumb in terms of a very one-sided contest.
It's hard to imagine that Man City won't win this eventually given how steely and disciplined they've been over the last two months or so, that elimination in the Champions league at home to Tottenham aside, so we're instantly drawn to a price of 3.613/5 that City win the game by exactly one goal. Would-be backers of that outcome should remember by the way that would have to be after 90 minutes and not extra-time for it to be a winner.
One of the aspects of City's late-season performances that would have pleased Pep Guardiola will have been their ability to keep clean sheets. That freak 4-3 win at home to Tottenham aside, they improved massively in defence with Vincent Kompany's return to the starting line-up a big part of that.
Between that match and the last day of the season where they conceded against Brighton, they didn't concede in four matches in a row.
All well and good but Watford have found it easier to penetrate City's back four than most. Earlier this season they lost 3-1 at the Etihad, lost 2-1 at home and going back to last season they also lost 3-1 at City's home ground.
Knowing that playing for 0-0 and hoping for an extra-time stroke of luck is a thankless task, Watford will need to be positive here and wouldn't be at all surprised if they scored against them again. Both teams to score is 2.0521/20, meaning the double comes to 6.411/2.
Sterling first, followed by Deulofeu
Much to the dismay of Fantasy Football managers who owned Raheem Sterling (not naming any names), he didn't have his shooting boots on towards the end of the season. He didn't score in any of his last five league matches though his 29 goals from 55 appearances for cub and country this season are an incredibly impressive return by anyone's standards.
Sterling likes playing Watford, by the way. In early March he scored a hat-trick against them in a 3-1 win at home, last season he scored after just one minute (also in a 3-1 win) and he also converted a late penalty against them back in September 2017 in the Premier League as they thrashed the Hornets 6-0.
So it might be worth going with the former Liverpool man to open the scoring here at 4.57/2. An Fa Cup final goal is one of the things missing on his CV and despite not being at his goalscoring best recently, we've seen before how he enjoys the big stages.
Following the rationale that Watford might get a goal here, the who can get it? Troy Deeney probably won't be at his best from a physical point of view after missing three games through suspension thanks to a needless sending off against Arsenal in mid-April.
I also think that his physical approach, all elbows and back to the goal, are meat and drink for the likes of Kompany and Aymeric Laporte.
I prefer the chances of Gerard Deulofeu. He scored the consolation goal in that match where Sterling got the hat-trick and also got yet another consolation goal when Watford were soundly beaten 4-1 by West Ham on the final day of the season, presumably a game where the Hornets had other things on their minds.
Back in April he scored back-to-back braces- in Watford's 3-2 win over Wolves in the FA Cup semi-finals and then again in a 2-1 win away at Huddersfield. He's certainly their in-form man.
He's available at 6.05/1 to score, bringing the double up to odds of 45.24.