Manchester City v Watford
Live on BBC One and BT Sport 2
Three is the magic number for City
If there were any lingering doubts about the seriousness with which Manchester City are approaching the final game of the English season, Vincent Kompany put them to bed last weekend.
"I can't even tell you how much I'm motivated to win against Watford," he said after City wrapped up another Premier League title.
"I know players and fans will think City are celebrating now and we can catch them off guard, but I can promise you the opposite."
The message is very clear: this FA Cup - and the domestic treble it would complete - matters. This season may not count as an unqualified success, given how their European adventure ended, but win on Saturday and Pep Guardiola's charges can still feel pretty pleased with themselves.
Widespread changes to the side that thrashed Brighton are unlikely. The only real dilemma is between Leroy Sané, Riyad Mahrez - who did his chances no harm with a fine display on the south coast - and a central midfielder. It's probably too early for Kevin de Bruyne to start, and with Fernandinho out, there might just be half a chance for Phil Foden if Guardiola is feeling sentimental.
Hornets out of nick
It is wildly condescending to say that just reaching the cup final counts as a major victory for Watford, but there probably is a touch of truth to that. This is the first time the Hornets have reached the Wembley showpiece since 1984, and whatever happens next, their run to this point will live long in the memory.
Which isn't to say they won't be eyeing one more scalp. Javi Gracia's side showed in the semi-final against Wolves that they have vast reserves of grit to complement their organisation and technical skill, and they certainly don't lack for big-game players: just try telling Troy Deeney that they're just fall guys on Saturday.
Watford's recent form has not been impressive, admittedly: they lost their last three games of the league season, dropping to 11th in the process - a disappointment given they were lurking just outside the European places for much of the campaign. They must raise their game again here, but there is good news on the personal front: left-back José Holebas is free to play after having a suspension overturned.
City heavily favoured
It is impossible to ignore City's form over the last few months: they have won 20 of 22 games (21 if you count the penalty/shootout win over Chelsea in he League Cup) since the start of February. They might not be scoring as many as they did in the winter, but they are controlling matches, often scoring early and squeezing the life out of their opponents.
Throw in Watford's shaky form, and it's little wonder that City are 1.251/4 to take the trophy in 90 minutes. That is too short for our tastes, however, so we must look for a different angle if we are to back the favourites.
Don't expect fireworks
They may have stuck four past Brighton, but City have been efficient rather than spectacular on the home straight. Nine of their last 13 league games went under the 2.5-goal line, and if Watford adopt a cautious approach, as seems likely, this may follow a similar pattern.
Granted, Watford's defenders will need to do a whole lot better than they did against West Ham at the weekend (1-4). But 1.991/1 on City to win and under 3.5 goals - using the Same Game Multi tool in the Sportsbook - looks a solid play.
Kun can lead the charge
Sergio Agüero missed out on a share of the Premier League Golden Boot by one goal, but will be hopeful of having a say this weekend. The Argentine looked sharp against Brighton, grabbing a typically instinctive goal, and will be available at around 3.55/2 to open the scoring at Wembley.