FA Cup / Richard Walker / 13 February 2009 /

After a week of turmoil at Stamford Bridge can Chelsea get their season back on track with a win in Hertfordshire? With a heavy heart, Richard Walker thinks so. Best Bet: Back Draw/Chelsea HT/FT @ [4.9].

Valentines Day it may be, but your humble correspondent - a life-long Watford fan - isn't about to let his heart rule his head.

I set off researching this preview with the clear stamp on my mind that a managerial change always brings about a victory - like a jilted lover on the rebound, proving they were good enough for those that dumped them. That's Chelsea right now, of course, except Big Phil's departure has lingered on with rumours of dressing-room divides.

That happens everywhere; all bosses have their favourites i.e. the ones who are getting a game and the ones who aren't. It's not rocket science, yet footballers are sensitive souls deep down, when you put a side their six and seven-figure annual earnings.

I've not been swayed however, despite my heart suggesting there might be a draw in this for my beloved Hornets. Yet while I have few doubts over a Chelsea win - after all, they've got a point to prove in front of watching new coach Guus Hiddink - [1.39] is painfully short and I think this 5.30pm tie will take a while to get going. Suspecting former Stamford Bridge reserves coach and now Watford boss Brendan Rodgers might take an uber-tactical and defensive approach, Draw/Chelsea in the HT/FT list at [4.9] is my main match tip.

It's [5.2] The Draw (and yes, I will be dabbling) and [10.0] for a home win in front of the Setanta cameras. Other HT/FT options include Chelsea/Chelsea [2.02], Draw/Draw [8.4] and the rather unlikely Chelsea/Watford at just [100.0]!

Interestingly, you can get [1.96] about backing either 'Yes' or 'No' to a Chelsea clean sheet. During the cut and thrust of cup action, I fancy the visitor's goal to be breached at least once. Although they ship 'em at the wrong end, they do score them too and are likely to get at a minimum a consolation, making 'Yes' a decent play.

I can certainly see there being more than 2.5 goals in that most popular of Over/Under fields. Unders is a [2.08] chance with Overs at [1.87] - it'll surely be the latter since, if the Hornets do go one or two down they'll at least try to chase the game, opening it up even further. In fact, getting involved at [3.15] about Over 3.5 goals could hardly be described as an outlandish play for this game.

When the game's first goal does arrive, as it surely will, I expect Didier Drogba to be scoring it. I'd lay high odds against him not starting tomorrow. His being restored to the starting XI is almost an admission that Scolari had it wrong towards the end. He'll be around [6.0] to do the business and I won't be missing out.

If you're looking for a couple of longer-priced To Score suggestions, perhaps try Chelsea's young Slovakian striker Miroslav Stoch - who worked under Rodgers at the Bridge - at [5.0] or thereabouts, or Tamas Priskin, an enigmatic Watford forward who can be great or gross. He'll be around the [6.0] mark to find the net in a game that might suit his less physical style.

Chelsea by a 3-1 margin is my Correct Score choice, priced at [14.0], but I will be delighted to be completely wrong. Heart says "Just maybe, Head says "Can't see it".

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