Rochdale v Newcastle United: Lay the injury hit Magpies

Alan Dudman
02 January 2020

Newcastle manager Steve Bruce has a mounting injury list to deal with ahead of Saturday

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Newcastle travel to Rochdale for the BT Sport televised FA Cup clash on Saturday, and Alan Dudman is opposing Steve Bruce's injury hit team...

"More worrying however is the second Opta stat, as the Magpies have won just one of their last 16 matches in away FA Cup fixtures."

Lay Newcastle @ 1.845/6

Rochdale v Newcastle United
Saturday, 12:31
Live on BT Sport 1

Rochdale's style earning plaudits, but not points

Whilst Rochdale have struggled in League One this season towards the foot of the table, their style of play under rookie manager Brian Barry-Murphy has earned plenty of plaudits. The 41-year-old is the son of GAA legend Jimmy, and his "tiki-tika" philosophy produced one of the goals of the season in September versus Southend; a 16-pass move that was finished off by talisman Ian Henderson.

At that stage of the season, that was Rochdale's third goal from 10+ passes. Only Manchester City (five) had more in September.

That was certainly a highlight, and so was the Carabao Cup 1-1 at Old Trafford - a game in which they took the Reds to penalties with 16-year-old Luke Mathieson scoring 14 minutes from time. Rochdale soaked up 31 shots that night and defended for their lives.

In terms of their domestic form, the Christmas period was poor, although they salvaged some pride with a win at Accrington on New Year's Day.

Overall, there is a lot to like about the way Barry-Murphy approaches the game. He was a former player at Preston under David Moyes, so has opted for a less defensive style game from what he would have played under there.

Injury-hit Toon facing a fixture they could do without

Newcastle's Christmas had very little festive cheer, as manager Steve Bruce's fears were realised with the nightmare loss to Leicester on Wednesday. Losing to Brendan Rodgers' side wasn't the problem, it was the injuries. Four players went down in the space of 20 minutes, and Newcastle's thin squad just couldn't cope with the fourth game in the space of 10 days.

They were not exactly helped either by Florian Lejeune's defensive performance.

The Magpies played the second half with 10 men against the Foxes, which was hardly ideal preparation for an FA Cup tie, even if it is against lower league opposition. Those injuries were to Jetro Willems, Jonjo Shelvey, Fabian Schar and Manquillo. Reports also suggested DeAndre Yedin sustained a hand injury, which was at one stage suspected broken.

Who of the walking wounded will make Saturday?

Newcastle's problems getting the layers on alert

There was an element of surprise with the prices for this, as on Thursday, Rochdale were at 4.607/2 to win and Newcastle at 1.845/6. The odds on the Tynesiders were completely understandable given that 10 of their 22 senior players are injured, but I thought Dale would be a little bigger. They wouldn't be favourites for many League One matches at the moment.

Brian Barry-Murphy 1280 .jpg

The market is quite clearly latching on to Newcastle's injury problems. But I also think with these sort of games, the layers are not only trying to second guess team news, but also the importance each club puts on a Cup run. With United currently in 13th in the Premier League, the end game is staying in that with the financial rewards. The last three seasons has seen Newcastle knocked out of the fourth round - which included a 3-0 loss to Oxford under Rafael Benitez.

The hosts themselves had eight first-team players on the sidelines ahead of New Year's Day. They won that fixture 1-2 at Accrington, but are still towards the foot of the table and have just two victories at home. Incidentally, they had lost three on the spin over the festive period before the Accy victory.

If you are backing Newcastle at 1.845/6, onside you have the fact that Rochdale have won just once in 16 FA Cup games against top-flight opponents. More worrying however is the second Opta stat, as the Magpies have won just one of their last 16 matches in away FA Cup fixtures.

With that stat, a massive injury list and a side hitting a bad run of form, they are the right price to lay.

Dale legend Henderson the one to back

Looking at some of the other markets available on the Exchange; the 0-0 at 14.013/1 and 1-1 at 9.08/1 present big enough prices with room to trade, as I envisage a fairly low-scoring game. Newcastle have been poor away and have scored just nine on the road in the PL, whilst the hosts have scored just 10 in 11 matches at Spotland.

The initial prices suggested a game of goals could be on the cards, though. Over 2.5 is 1.845/6, with the Under 2.5 at 2.1011/10. The latter looks more attractive as Rochdale were strong enough defensively to soak up all of Manchester United's 31 shots in the Carabao Cup, and the Reds have a more potent front-line that Newcastle.

Who starts up front for the visitors is anyone's guess. Andy Carroll's fitness has to be managed, and he is 2.829/5 in the To Score market. More realistic could be Dwight Gayle at slightly shorter odds.

I quite like the back of Ian Henderson, the Dale legend at 3.613/5. He has hit 11 this term and is on course for a third successive 20+ season. He's always been a fairly gifted player and has a knack of finishing off moves. There's plenty of videos to watch on You Tube for all of Henderson's goals. Sadly, the Joelinton version is still in the pipeline.

Newcastle's record signing had a torrid afternoon against Leicester; missing with an air-shot and wasting a one-on-one.

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