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FA Cup Betting: Stats say go low on goals

FA Cup RSS / / 31 December 2009 /

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Steven Gerard is unlikely to start against Reading and Liverpool will be deprived of their main source of goals

Steven Gerard is unlikely to start against Reading and Liverpool will be deprived of their main source of goals

"For a start the natural feeling is that the better team will score more goals than the lower league side and so the odds generally reflect this in all markets. The under and over 2.5 column market is no different and generally the over 2.5 goal option is the favourite, but the under 2.5 goal option is, at times, the value bet."

Ed Nicholson talks us through the stats from recent years that suggest that FA Cup misconceptions need to be ignored and that the value very often lies with backing low-scoring affairs, an example of which is Liverpool's trip to Reading.

It's the third round of the FA Cup this weekend and as those who read this column on a regular basis will know I like to be against goals when a higher league side plays away against a lower league side, especially at the start of the FA Cup in January and February.

For a start the natural feeling is that the better team will score more goals than the lower league side and so the odds generally reflect this in all markets. The under and over 2.5 column market is no different and generally the over 2.5 goal option is the favourite, but the under 2.5 goal option is, at times, the value bet.

Secondly, when a club from a lower division does play a team from a higher division it is the former that usually have the edge in terms of motivation. And if the tie is played at the lower ranking side's ground it brings the teams even closer together, making a low scoring contest even more likely. If the lower team has the momentum factor too, it becomes doubly interesting, especially if the higher league side has been struggling and lack confidence.

Thirdly, the higher league side (especially Premier League sides this season with many teams having played three games within eight days) might rest first team players/key players.

Finally, bad weather conditions (rain, wind, snow, sleet, cold) and poor pitch conditions (muddy, bumpy, little grass) bring teams of differing abilities closer together, as fewer goals are scored, increasing the chance of a low-scoring draw.

I analysed last season's FA Cup results.

3rd round - 15/32 over 2.5 goals = 46%
4th round - 7/16 over = 43%
5th round - 5/8 over = 62%
Quarter finals - 3/4 over = 75%
Semi finals - 1/2 = 50%
Finals - over = 100%
In total: 32/63 were over 2.5 goal contests = 51%

However, when we strip it down to lower league teams hosting higher league teams the results were as follows:

3rd round - 6/12 over = 50%
4th round - 2/6 over = 33%
5th round - 2/4 over = 50%
Quarter finals - 0/1 over = 0%

In total: over 2.5 goals contests: 10/23 = 43%

However it must be remembered that as with anything, the price is key, and I would only be interested in backing the under 2.5 goal option at the right price.

Reading v Liverpool

This game ticks all the right boxes for a play on the under 2.5 goal option. Reading, from the Championship, take on a Premier League side struggling for goals, away from home. Add into the mix that Liverpool have played twice this week already and are certain to rest their star players, and a low scoring match is envisaged. The final piece of the jigsaw, and the most important one, is that you can back the unders at [2.10].

Reading have only scored nine times at home in 12 matches, while they have conceded 16 times. And although in 20th place in the Championship, they managed to get a confidence-boosting 1-1 draw against high flying Swansea last time. Liverpool meanwhile lack any real firepower once Steven Gerrard and Fernando Torres do not start and it would be a big surprise if either of them played on Saturday and a huge surprise if they both did. Liverpool are capable of scoring goals, but as they showed against Leeds in the Carling Cup earlier in the year, they simply do not have the strength in depth other Premier League sides do.

Recommendation

2pts Under 2.5 goals @ [2.10]
0.25pt Liverpool 1- @ [9.0]

Brentford v Doncaster

Over the last few years Doncaster's success has been built on defence. Last season they quietly finished 9th in the Championship, conceding 53 goals in 46 matches, while this season they have conceded just 27 times in 23 games. But they are not prolific scorers away from home having netted just 13 times in 12 games on the road in the Championship. They will be fresher than most teams though, as their December 28th fixture against Leicester was postponed, meaning they last played on 26th December when losing 1-0 away at Coventry.

No team has drawn more games at home in League One than Brentford this season (six). And 15 goals in 12 games at Griffin Park tell a tale - they lack any clinical finishing. But they will be confident having drawn 1-1 with high flying Charlton last time.

Recommendation

2pts Under 2.5 goals @ [1.77]

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