FA Cup Betting: Shrimpers to net a surprise

Ian Lamont
05 December 2013

Phil Brown could be in a happy mood come lights out time at Chesterfield in the FA Cup on Saturday

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Southend could prove a good big price in the FA Cup, while Newport might be on a sticky wicket at Kidderminster, says Ian Lamont as he looks at the chances of some League Two sides in round two...

"As well as putting together a healthy defence, Southend have a striker, Kevan Hurst, in a rich vein of form, scoring on four of his five most recent appearances – and taking a rest when suspended for one game, too. Anthony Straker is clearly relishing his more attacking role."

Chesterfield 2.111/10 v Southend 3.814/5; The draw 3.55/2

Southend might have lost 2-1 early in the season at home to Southend - a first defeat of the campaign for the visitors - but on current form a price of 3.65 on the visitors looks too large.

Two defeats from 11 league and FA Cup games with six clean sheets shows just what Phil Brown has achieved as he pursues a genuine promotion challenge after the under-performing Shrimpers' campaign of last season.

As well as putting together a healthy defence, Southend have a striker, Kevan Hurst, in a rich vein of form, scoring on four of his five most recent appearances - and taking a rest when suspended for one game, too. Anthony Straker is clearly relishing his more attacking role.

All this is not to say that Chesterfield are not without their chance of winning this game, it is just that the match seems an awful lot more level playing than odds of 2.111/10 on the hosts - and the away price - suggest. Chesterfield have a strong home record, with just two defeats and seven goals conceded, with 12 scored - in the league.

Their two defeats at home came in October, from which they seem to have improved again, but with three draws and one win. Five clean sheets in seven games suffered a bit of a blemish at Newport, where they lost 3-2 last Sunday, with Liam Cooper sent off.

He will be one of three players missing as Paul Cook looks to attack. The FA Cup offers a free card, if you like, from the constraints of normal matches, with both sides likely to want to get forward.

Southend might just be slightly more inspired by a manager who has had great times in the FA Cup with Bolton. Barry Corr and Freddy Eastwood will redouble efforts to return in time, from injury.

Back Southend @ 3.814/5

Fleetwood 2.26/5 v Burton 3.814/5; The draw 3.613/5

You'd probably have to be a little barmy to predict this one with too much certainty, so I volunteered. After the week I've had commuting to work, I have eyeballs out!

The price for FA Cup failure last season at Fleetwood was the sack for Micky Mellon. Clearly, the money men at Highbury needed some glory to add to a promotion charge that fell away. So, if a manager with several promotions in a few years could be dispensed with, Graham Alexander could be forgiven for wondering about a tap on the shoulder if he loses here.

And his side might just spare him wondering, because they do seem able to score quite readily at home, even if they then did concede quite a few, with that 5-4 win over faltering Mansfield. Before that was a 4-1 win over Newport, who clearly had a bad day as they have a high number of away draws.
Antoni Sarcevic, Gareth Evans and Steven Schumacher need to keep chipping in with a few goals in the absence of other strikers.

Overall, Fleetwood's form is not totally sparkling, and the Brewers will prove no pushovers. They will have to be blitzed with waves of attack or gradually unpicked, as if this were a chess match. The reason is that in their last 10 matches, one side has ended up scoring nil and the other one goal or two. Tight games include three straight 1-0 wins and seven clean sheets in ten games. Even if Adam McGurk can continue the scoring form that his manager Gary Rowett has hailed as key to Burton's progress, Fleetwood might be able to outscore them.

Back Fleetwood @ 2.26/5

Kidderminster 2.56/4 v Newport 3.02/1; The draw 3.55/2

Justin Edinburgh, Newport's manager, says it was an easy decision to turn down the chance to talk to Portsmouth about their managerial vacancy, because he has unfinished business with the Exiles.

So, the FA Cup, being what it is, presents the perfect stage for the confident to come a cropper. The Welsh side are certainly on the crest of a wave but there is no doubt they would have preferred a home tie. They took two goes to beat Braintree after drawing in Essex and, in League Two, have drawn four of their last six away - all 0-0 - and not won.

Amari Morgan-Smith and Joe Lolly have been in great scoring form. The Harriers have just one defeat at home and only Barnet have beaten them in 10 Conference Premier games. Steve Burr is a canny manager who, despite play-off defeat to Wrexham last season, earned manager of the year in the division. According to Opta, Kidderminster have failed to win their last nine FA Cup ties against higher level opposition, while Newport's only success in the past six seasons is that replay win over Newport.

If Kidderminster can find one goal, it might just be enough.

Back Kidderminster @ 2.56/4

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