Five Potential FA Cup Upsets: QPR are at risk yet again

Michael Lintorn
02 January 2015

Will 2007/08 FA Cup winner Harry Redknapp make an early exit?

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Michael Lintorn advises laying Millwall, Swansea, QPR, Sunderland and Aston Villa in the FA Cup third round...

"Burton, Swindon, MK Dons, Rochdale and Port Vale have all ushered QPR out of cups this decade, the latter four at Loftus Road."
Lay QPR to beat Sheffield United @ 1.834/5

Lay Millwall to beat Bradford @ 2.26/5
Saturday, 15:00

We're not even convinced that this would be much of an upset, but the odds say that it would be. Millwall have won one home match in nine attempts since the start of September, losing their latest four. Bradford's cup credentials were established in their run to the 2012/13 Capital One Cup final at the expense of three Premier League teams, and they are unbeaten away to top-half opponents in League One this term (W5 D2), which should prepare them well for these Championship strugglers.

Lay Swansea to win at Tranmere @ 1.444/9
Saturday, 15:00

Of the five suggested lays, this is the most ambitious, but the logic in attempting it revolves around fatigue. Football League clubs have a huge advantage over their Premier League counterparts in having played a match less over Christmas, and the few top-tier sides in action on Saturday are likely to be the most affected. Swansea have it the worst of anyone: as they partook in the Monday Night Football against Liverpool, this is their third game in six days. Tranmere haven't played in this period.

Lay QPR to beat Sheffield United @ 1.834/5
Sunday, 13:00

This feels like a perfect storm: the specialists in suffering cup upsets against the experts in causing them. Burton, Swindon, MK Dons, Rochdale and Port Vale have all ushered QPR out of cups in this decade alone, the latter four at Loftus Road no less. Sheffield United met Premier League or Championship clubs on eight occasions in 2014 and lost just once, resulting in FA Cup 2013/14 and Capital One Cup 2014/15 semi-final appearances.

Lay Sunderland to beat Leeds @ 1.625/8
Sunday, 13:00

Sunderland showed what they are capable of in cup combat by reaching last season's Capital One Cup final, but that was by conquering Southampton, Chelsea and Man United. They aren't so great when the pressure is on them, exiting this competition at home to the likes of Notts County and Bolton this decade. By contrast, Leeds use it to prove that they can still hang with the Premier League's finest, eliminating Man United (2010) and Tottenham (2013) and holding Arsenal (2011).

Lay Aston Villa to beat Blackpool @ 1.4840/85
Sunday, 15:00

Aston Villa's previous two FA Cup campaigns were ended in January at home to League One side Sheffield United (2014) and away to Championship team Millwall (2013) and they were dumped out of this season's Capital One Cup by Leyton Orient at Villa Park. They are back to their most impotent too following three successive games without a goal. Meanwhile, things are improving at Blackpool. Having lost 12 of their first 17 Championship fixtures, they are on a run of only two defeats in seven.

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