Havant and Waterlooville 8.4015/2 v Preston North End 1.412/5, the draw 5.409/2
Monday 20:00 BST, live on BT Sport 1
There isn't an awful lot of room for manoeuvre regarding Preston's price, and as the League One side take on the Conference South outfit, it's a game they are expected to win. Havant in no way should be considered no-hopers however, and are managed by Lee Bradbury (ex Portsmouth striker and former Bournemouth boss). He has turned the club's fortunes around from relegation candidates to promotion contenders in two seasons. They have suffered just one defeat in 14 games, including a remarkable September in which Bradbury's side won every single game. En route to the first round, Havant beat Wingate and Finchley (2-0) and Swindon Supermarine (3-0).
The Hawks have plenty of league experience too, the likes of Brian Stock, Warren Cummings and Alan Connell had years of playing in the third and second tiers. Cummings was capped by Scotland, Stock featured for Doncaster, Bournemouth and Burnley, and Connell had a great song when he was at the Cherries (I'm reliably informed via a fan of his), and it went Alan Connell Alan, Alan Connell Alan, etc.
North End enjoyed a fine October and moved up to second in League One, however their latest two results have been disappointing with defeats to Swindon (0-1) and Rochdale (0-3).
It might be closer than the market suggests, and if you are considering a fancy wager on Havant, back them in the +1, +2 and +3 markets. Likewise backing Preston at 1.412/5 is not particularly exciting, so it might be possible to use the Asian Handicap to your advantage.
The hosts appear to be in good shape regarding a fit squad, and Bradbury has an extremely professional set-up at Westleigh Park. Preston boss Simon Grayson was pleased with the extra few days preparation for a Monday game, but Bailey Wright, Calum Woods and Andy Little are all unlikely to feature. International call-ups have robbed the Whites of Scott Wiseman and Callum Robinson, but striker Paul Gallagher has permission to play from Leicester City.
FA Cup History
As one of the founder members of the Football League, Preston have a rich tradition in this competition as two-times winners (1889 and 1938) and five-times finalists (their last appearance at Wembley in 1964). Whether a run in this year's tournament is high priority for Grayson I am not so sure - especially given how well they are doing in the league.
Havant have made it to the first round in 2002 and 2006 when losing narrowly to Dagenham and Millwall respectively, and were also beaten by third tier opposition two years later against Brentford.
However, their finest hour came at Anfield in 2008, taking the lead twice against the Reds, but losing 5-2 in the fourth round. Their efforts earned a standing ovation from the Kop, and made an instant hero of midfielder Alfie Potter (who will be in the BT studio on Monday).
Over 2.5 Goals
Preston's Joe Garner is a terrific forward and a pest to opponents, coupled with his never-say-die attitude he will be perfect for this sort of game. He has bagged ten already in League One this season, and should help add to the potential for goals here. Havant's playmaker Stock will need to supply the ammunition for dangerous front pair Bradley Bubb and JJ Hooper. The latter is the interesting one, a 20-year-old powerhouse of a forward who attended the Newcastle United Academy, he's hit 11 in 14 games and might be able to find the net on Monday.
Havant kept six clean sheets in a row during September, and have already started this month with a 0-0 in the Conference South, so I'm not expecting a cricket score. I'd like to consider 1-2 and 1-3 correct scores, and the over 2.5 price around 2.1011/10 makes some appeal.
Garner hit a treble recently against Fleetwood, and I certainly believe it's the sort of match he'll be fired up for, look out for odds In-Play for hat-trick scored if he starts on Monday night.
Corners Match Bet
Not a market I usually get to see, but seeing as we have a live TV encounter we might just get a decent price on the hosts. If Preston show their class and are leading narrowly at around 70 minutes, I would consider an In-Play bet on Havant as we often see the lower league team push everything forward in search of goal. They can pin back North End and for all their pressure late in the game, picking up five or six corners could potentially seal a nice bet.
Back Preston to win 1-2 and 1-3 @ 7.06/1 and 12.011/1
Back 'yes' in both teams to score market @ 2.01/1