FA Cup Betting: Luton to be last League Two side standing

Ian Lamont
01 January 2015

The Hatters should be making piles of FA Cup prizemoney this weekend

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Ian Lamont takes a look at the four remaining teams from League Two in the FA Cup and assesses their chances. Tranmere and AFC Wimbledon have their work cut out against the big boys, but Cambridge and Luton play each other...

"Luton have at least scored in six of their last seven games and have kept three clean sheets in that period, while Cambridge only have one, conceding an average of more than two, giving John Still's visitors the advantage."

Cambridge 2.89/5 v Luton 2.77/4; the draw 3.55/2
Saturday January 3, 15:00

With two League Two chairmen rubbing their hands at the prospect of £67,000 for the winner of third round ties, this could be a blood and thunder tie with no quarter given and plenty of goals. Or a tense 0-0 draw.

Richard Money's Cambridge have a decent home record and average 1.8 goals to conceding 1. Kwesi Appiah, on loan from Crystal Palace, will be fired up to land Premier League opposition. He has eight goals this season, including one in the last round's original game when they drew 2-2 with Mansfield.

Focus might fall on one his opponents, however, Luke Rooney, because of his famous namesake. Luke, 24, has three goals in 24 appearances for Luton and Mark Cullen, who has nine, scored the winner at Cambridge in the league.

The winner of this tie is likely to be the last League Two side left in the competition come Tuesday morning and I think the Hatters will be the happy ones.

Luton have at least scored in six of their last seven games and have kept three clean sheets in that period, while Cambridge only have one, conceding an average of more than two, giving John Still's visitors the advantage.

Recommended Bet
Back Luton @ 2.77/4

Tranmere 10.09/1 v Swansea 1.42/5; the draw 5.04/1
Saturday January 3, 15:00

The last time a League Two side met Swansea in a cup competition, the Welsh side squashed them 4-0. That was the League Cup final of 2013 and Bradford City were a pretty good side, earning promotion via the play-offs at the end of that season.

Tranmere are simply not in their class. They are backable at 10.09/1 and that looks slim. Unless of course Gylfi Sigurdsson and Wilfried Bony have off days, along with the rest of the squad.

Garry Monk shouldn't drop any first teamers for this, even though it might be tempting, as Micky Adams' men have absolutely nothing to lose in the corner of Merseyside which is in the shadow of the big boys and has, in the past, proved the source of a few surprises.

Rovers are looking a lot firmer under Adams, with one defeat in eight games in all competitions. But they are still third from bottom of the Football League and face a huge task to keep the visitors at bay. Over 3.5 goals seems decent value at about 3.02/1 while draw/Swansea in the half-time/full time market seems a decent wager at 5.04/1.

Recommended Bets
Back over 3.5 goals @ 3.02/1
Back draw/Swansea @ 5.04/1 in the half-time/full-time market

AFC Wimbledon 18.017/1 v Liverpool 1.232/9; the draw 7.413/2
Monday January 5, 19.55 BBC1

When Steven Gerrard didn't play against Real Madrid, people on social media pointed out you don't get 'rested' for such a game, but dropped. Here, Liverpool players will get rested, I am certain, but the club will have enough quality to survive this FA Cup Final re-run of 1988 whatever sort of squad players they put out.

Kingsmeadow's tight, small ground will offer an intensity of atmosphere and the Dons will simply hope they don't repeat the errors of their last home televised FA Cup match, against Wycombe in November 2008, when early mistakes cost them a goal and they were 2-0 down at half-time, severely on the back foot.

Neal Ardley's side might have - to some - the most feared strikeforce in League Two, with Matt Tubbs and Bayo Akinfenwa being supplemented by the emerging Ade Azeez, but don't be distracted by six wins from nine making them work beaters. They are an average League Two side.

They remain capable, though, of causing an upset, as they did at League Two leaders Wycombe in the last round, although Liverpool are an entirely different prospect. If the defence or midfield can cope with the pace and movement of Raheem Sterling - or even Rickie Lambert - for 90 minutes, AFC Wimbledon will have done well.

There have been goalless draws between lower-league teams and Premiership kings in the past - Exeter and Burton v Manchester United spring to mind - and for the brave that result is priced 24.023/1 in the correct score market but if you can imagine both sides scoring, Liverpool to win 3-1 is a speculative selection at 13.012/1.

Recommended Bet
Back Liverpool to win 3-1 @ 13.012/1

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