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FA Cup Betting: 'Let's get this out of the way quickly'

FA Cup RSS / / 11 February 2009 /

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Sir Alex and co will be desperate not to add to their workloads and will be telling their sides to settle their FA Cup ties at the first attempt. But do the stats suggests they will get their way? Andrew Atherley investigates.

With the Champions League again looming on the horizon, the teams left in Europe's premier competition will be keen to settle their FA Cup Fifth Round ties with the minimum of fuss this weekend.

Recent history suggests that is exactly what they will do, with the so-called big four rarely allowing their ties in the later rounds of the FA Cup to go to a replay. The message in the dressing room at this stage must be: let's get this out of the way quickly.

From the fifth round onwards, Manchester United, Arsenal, Liverpool and Chelsea combined have played 42 ties in the past 10 years and 37 of them (88%) have been decided without the need for a replay (excluding games where two of the big four were pitched against each other). That indicates a quick decision this weekend in Derby v Manchester United and Watford v Chelsea, while Arsenal will be keen to get their delayed fourth-round replay against Cardiff settled so that they can, hopefully, move on to the fifth round.

The percentages, then, are slightly in favour of laying the draw in the fifth-round ties at Derby and Watford, at [4.7] and [5.2] respectively in the early betting.
Other teams also might not want to have their focus shifted by an extra cup match, with Everton and Aston Villa chasing Champions League places, Blackburn and Middlesbrough in the thick of the relegation battle, and several of the remaining Championship teams involved in the promotion race.

Yet the evidence here is not so clear-cut that replays will be unnecessary. Although the percentage of replays in the past 10 years has dropped slightly from the fifth round onwards, down to 21% compared with 23% for rounds three and four, it was influenced by last year's record low number of FA Cup replays. From round four through to the semi-finals, only one of 30 ties went to a replay, which pushed the average down.

It is surprising that there aren't more draws in the later rounds of the cup, given that one of the prevailing trends is for fewer goals to be scored as the competition progresses. In the past five seasons, 74% of ties from the fifth round onwards have had under 2.5 goals when one of the big four hasn't been involved.

This trend is also witnessed in other cup competitions: at the last World Cup, for instance, 11 of the 15 straight knockout games had under 2.5 goals and six of them ended all-square after 90 minutes.

One difference about the FA Cup is that there can be a significant gap in quality between opposing teams, and that is the case again with five of this weekend's seven fifth-round ties pitting a Championship team against a Premier League outfit.

Yet even here the draw rate in the later stages hardly varies, at 24% over the last 10 years. That is lower than the draw average in England's top two leagues, though statistically the difference is negligible.

What is notable about Premier v Championship ties is the high win rate for top-tier teams, and particularly on the road. The overall win rate for Premier League teams is 61%, which indicates a little value in backing Blackburn at [1.68] for a home win over Coventry but significantly better value in away wins for Fulham at [2.86] against Swansea and for Hull at [2.94] against Sheffield United.

The away win percentage for Premier League teams against Championship sides rises to 68% in the latter stages of the competition and, even allowing for the big four contribution to that figure, the odds are still in favour of the visiting sides from the Premier League.

Defeats for Premier League teams are relatively rare in such encounters, despite the memories still being fresh of Barnsley's giant-killing efforts against Liverpool and Chelsea last season.

Much more common are clean sheets for Premier League teams, running at 52% over the past 10 seasons, and this is an option worth considering in this weekend's ties.
Indeed, the evidence from FA Cup results shows that, while teams may be keen to get matches settled, they do not go about the task in the gung-ho fashion associated with the more famous cup exploits. With Wembley in their sights, most teams - with the possible exception of the big four - adopt a risk-averse strategy, which probably explains why goals totals decrease without necessarily leading to an increase in draws.

This is where the difference in class really is brought to bear. When Premier League teams have taken the lead against Championship sides, they have gone on to win 80% of matches and drawn just 13%. Low goals totals in most of those matches are an indication that the better side sticks rather than twists from that position of strength.

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