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FA Cup Betting: It's a serious tip when the Boz opposes the Non-League team

FA Cup RSS / / 25 November 2009 /

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Jermaine Beckford was unavailable when Leeds lost at Histon in the FA Cup last year but he's certainly available this time round. He's arguably a better player and Leeds are certainly a better side than a year ago.

Jermaine Beckford was unavailable when Leeds lost at Histon in the FA Cup last year but he's certainly available this time round. He's arguably a better player and Leeds are certainly a better side than a year ago.

"The difference being that this year’s Leeds is not last year’s Leeds. The day they went to Histon was a day Jermaine Beckford couldn’t play and this season, he is not only playing but is part of a Leeds set-up that looks miles too good for League One. The goals Robert Snodgrass and he scored against Brighton last weekend were above Championship standard to my eyes."

Fresh from tipping up a [9.0] shot in the last round of the FA Cup, Gary Boswell is back focussing on the world's oldest Cup competition this week but be warned: his strongest bet isn't of the nature you'd normally expect from him....

There will be those who've followed me just in press circles over the past eight years that think I bet the non-league teams blind when it comes to their FA Cup exploits against league opposition.

But the truth is that I go into non-league FA Cup fixtures in great depth and show no bias towards non-league teams when it comes to recommending bets. This week is a case in point as I go about explaining why it's the League team, predictably the favourite, who is the smart bet.

The tie in question is Leeds United's visit to Rockingham Road to play Kettering due to be shown live on ITV on Sunday at 1.45pm.

On the face of it, there is as much chance of upset in this as in any other when you consider that Kettering are exactly where Histon were last season when they dumped the high flying Yorkshire outfit out of the competition with a 1-0 win at the Glassworld. Kettering have just as much propensity to mix it up with aerial bombardment - Exodus Geohaghon being their own version of the Rory Delap monster throw-in man aswell as being an imposing centre half who comes up for corners. With Moses Ashikodi also adding quality firepower up front for the Poppies this year, the [7.5] would seem at first glance a monster price on the home win. Conference National top five sides have a long history of competing equally with League sides in the FA Cup over the past ten years and under normal circumstances I would be snaffling the price, no questions asked.

The difference being that this year's Leeds is not last year's Leeds. The day they went to Histon was a day Jermaine Beckford couldn't play and this season, he is not only playing but is part of a Leeds set-up that looks miles too good for League One. The goals Robert Snodgrass and he scored against Brighton last weekend were above Championship standard to my eyes. Premier League standard is no exaggeration - as was the midfield creativity of Neil Kilkenny.

This is a tasty Leeds side very much in form and if they are anywhere near that standard at Rockingham Road, a top notch Kettering won't live with it. What's more, the tie comes at a bad time for the Poppies with hugely influential manager Mark Cooper just upped to Peterborough and results dipping as goalkeeper Lee Harper struggles to work out how you manage whilst still between the sticks. Even bigger disruption in the boardroom where the ever mercurial Imran Ladaak landed himself with a Conference lawsuit over comments rashly published in non-league newspapers last weekend.

A fit and firing Kettering could be given a good chance against last year's Leeds but as neither of those is in evidence, this is a rock solid occasion when class will tell and The Boz is lumping on the Leeds price if it's offered to me anywhere near the [1.6] mark.

The non-league side with a serious chance of turning over the odds on telly are the same one as last round - Northwich Victoria - nowhere near as long this time at [3.5] but playing Chris Sutton's lowly League Two Lincoln, who have scored just two goals in their last six games.

At longer odds of [6.5], Conference form team Rushden & Diamonds would not be without hope at Gus Poyet's Brighton and Barrow are also a monster price of [10.5] to do better at the Kassam this weekend than they did last.

I take both of those as sides who will give you a run for your money but the serious lolly this weekend goes in the two telly games on Northwich and Leeds.

THE BOZ'S BEST BETS FOR THE WEEKEND:

BACK LEEDS (3 points) at [1.6] or longer to beat Kettering
BACK NORTHWICH at [3.5] or longer to beat Lincoln
BACK RUSHDEN & DIAMONDS (0.5 point) at [6.5] or longer to beat Brighton
BACK BARROW (0.5 point) at [10.5] or longer to beat Oxford

The Boz is currently running at a P/L figure of -1.71 to recommended stakes for the 09/10 season on match betting having closed his recommended BSP outrights portfolio satchel with a minimum +9 point profit on all teams.

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