FA Cup Betting: Back a Sunday stalemate at Cambridge

Alan Dudman
07 December 2013

The Abbey Stadium - home of Cambridge United

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With two FA Cup second round matches live on TV this Sunday, Alan Dudman returns to preview the double header.....

"Sheffield United defender Harry Maguire is a huge price at 19.018/1 considering his aerial strength. The 20-year-old centre-back netted twice earlier in the season against Crewe, and scored the opening goal against Colchester in their FA Cup first round clash." Back Harry Maguire as first goalscorer @ 19.018/1

Cambridge United 3.55 v Sheffield United 2.1411/10, the draw 3.4012/5

Sunday, kick-off 12:00 BST, Live on BT Sport 1

Match Odds

Despite Cambridge placed two divisions below Sheffield United, the market is fairly evenly matched given the supposed gulf in class. I say supposed, because the U's would be rather competitive in League Two on recent form.

The hosts head into Sunday's FA Cup second round clash in dazzling form. Boss Richard Money has overseen 10 successive league wins at the Abbey Stadium, and head the Conference Premier with a healthy 45 points. Indeed you can back them at 2.44 for the title already.

The bedrock of Cambridge's run is clearly an impressive defence. The U's have conceded just nine goals this term - easily the best record in the division. Opposite boss Nigel Clough described them as a 'well organised side'.

Sheffield United are struggling towards the bottom of League One, but since David Weir was sacked as manager, new boss Nigel Clough has changed the mentality - and the results. The Blades have picked up seven points from five league games under Clough and are unbeaten in their last three.

The Yorkshire outfit are certainly harder to beat these days and look far more resilient - especially at the back. They are making teams work much harder for their goals, whilst looking a danger on the break, which is how they will probably set up for this match.

Team News

The home team are unlikely to risk Ryan Donaldson (ankle) and Tom Elliott (hamstring), whilst former Welsh international goalkeeper Jason Brown may have to settle for a place on the bench.

Sheffield United will be without Tony McMahon (suspended) and Aidy White (ineligible), but winger Ryan Flynn is fit again following a foot injury. Attacker Febian Brandy is available after suspension, but looks unlikely to start.

Opta Stats

This is the first time Cambridge United have reached the second round of the FA Cup since 2009, where they were knocked out by York City 2-1.

The U's have scored in each of their last 11 second round matches (including replays), scoring just 13 goals in the process.

Featured Markets

With this being a live TV match, I always like to have a dart in the first goalscorer markets. This should be a really tight affair given the two set-ups and their penchant for organisation. Sheffield United defender Harry Maguire is a huge price at 19.018/1 considering his aerial strength. The 20-year-old centre-back netted twice earlier in the season against Crewe, and scored the opening goal against Colchester in their FA Cup first round clash.

Maguire is highly-rated and could be on the radar of the England under-21s, whilst reports earlier in the season were suggesting that several Premier League clubs were interested in the tough defender. He should also be doubled up in the last goalscorer market, as he will be dangerous from corners and set-pieces.

Under 2.5 Goals

With the earlier Opta Stat in mind, the under 2.5 goals would present most interest. Cambridge have such an impressive defensive record on home soil, they are unlikely to be too open - especially early here. Indeed, the U's drew their FA Cup first round clash against Bury 0-0 in the first-leg, before dispatching the League Two side in the replay.

The Blades have a very good back four and will probably be forced to defend in the first 20 minutes, so their mission is to quieten down the expectant crowd. With this in mind, half-time markets should be looked at, whilst low scoring correct scorelines should be traded. The draw outright would be the most suitable Cash Out opportunity.

Tamworth 5.04/1 v Bristol City 1.758/11, the draw 3.90

Sunday 14:00 BST, Live on ITV1 and ITV1 HD

Match Odds

This second instalment of the 'League One against Conference Premier' clash represents a far more one-sided contest anticipated by the layers, although both are struggling in their respective divisions.

Tamworth sit just above the drop zone and have been a bit of a mixed bag. They have scored just 20 times all season (with 10 blanks so far), whilst the goals against column reads - conceded 32. However, Lambs boss Dale Bedford has stressed the need to enjoy the day for his players and the fans. But the TV cameras are there for a reason; to sense an upset.

Bristol City have a new manager, and Steve Cotterill faces a baptism of fire for his first game in charge following the departure of Sean O'Driscoll. I have never particularly rated Cotterill, but the 49-year-old has had a history of Cup runs, and guided Cheltenham into the fifth stage over a decade ago.

City's passage to the second round came courtesy of a comfortable 3-0 win against Dagenham, whilst Tamworth dispatched Solihull Motors and Macclesfield en route to Sunday's clash.

Team News

The Robins will be without midfielder Bobby Reid (hamstring) and defender Karleigh Osborne (suspended), whilst loan pairing Simon Gillett and Stephen McLaughlin are both ineligible. They played a 3-5-2 against Leyton Orient, but switched to a more conventional 4-4-2 last weekend against Preston, and they will probably go with the latter at Tamworth.

Lambs' midfielder Andy Haworth is a doubt with a hamstring injury, but Richard Peniket should overcome a dead leg to feature.

Opta Stats

This is Tamworth's sixth appearance in the second round of the FA Cup and they have progressed on three occasions (L2), once at the expense of a third tier team (Hartlepool in 2005).

This is Bristol City's first appearance at this stage of the competition since December 2006. They lost just one of their previous five second round games, to Barnsley in a replay in 2004 (winning five).

The Robins last defeat in the FA Cup to non-league opposition came in 1946 to Gillingham. progressing in each of their 24 games since.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals

The record of Tamworth makes this a fairly tricky one. The 10 blanks all season and just 20 scored for the Lambs should make this a standout under 2.5 goals bet, and four of their last five have gone that way. However, three of their last seven matches have gone 5-3, 4-1 and 3-4.

Bristol City have only won once from six of their most recent games. On the goal front (under Sean O'Driscoll), they managed to hit two at Swindon, four at Carlisle and four at Coventry. Perhaps they haven't been as entertaining in November and are unlikely to under the more pragmatic Cotterill.

The Robins ought to win this comfortably but wouldn't be a banker for a clean sheet. If the Bristol to win to nil market offers 'no' at short odds, I would probably look to take that on for Sunday. But over 2.5 goals would be the more solid call.

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