It's an all Premier League FA Cup clash between Everton and Wigan Athletic. Dan Fitch is expecting a tight game and goals from both sides...
"Wigan failed to find the net against Liverpool last weekend, but the Reds were the first team to keep a clean sheet against them in ten matches."
Everton v Wigan
Saturday, KO 12:45, Live on ITV 1
Wigan take a break from their relegation worries, as they attempt to reach the semi-final stage of the FA Cup for the first time in their history.
They face an Everton side that are more familiar with the business end of the competition, yet are still looking to land David Moyes with the first trophy of his reign.
Having been drawn at home, Everton are heavy favourites as you'd expect. The Toffees are [1.46], with the draw at [4.9] and Wigan at [8.4].
If there's little value in the home win, there might be some to be found in the draw. The Opta stats reveal that along with Stoke, Everton have drawn more Premier League games than any other club this season (12). A whopping six of those draws have come at home.
Meanwhile, Wigan are a better side away than they are at home. The Latics have gained ten points at home, compared to 14 on the road, which has included four wins.
The two games between the sides this season have been relatively tight. In the more recent game at Goodison Park, it took until the second half for Everton to establish a lead, before eventually running out as 2-1 winners.
In the reverse fixture, Wigan twice took the lead, only for Everton to peg them back on both occasions and force the 2-2 draw.
There's definitely value in backing the draw, from a trading perspective at least, but a safer bet can probably be found in the goals markets. I like the look of the [1.88] for both teams to score. Wigan failed to find the net against Liverpool last weekend, but the Reds were the first team to keep a clean sheet against them in ten matches.
Over 2.5 goals can be backed at [1.72], with unders at [2.36]. I think that overs is a fairly safe bet, but as the price is a little skinny, we'll stick to backing both teams to score. Everton will be without the injured Phil Jagielka and they simply don't have the squad to replace such a key figure with a player of similar quality.
That could make Wigan's Arouna Kone a decent bet in the goalscorer markets. The Ivorian has scored in both of the games against Everton this season and has scored four goals in his last three games for Wigan.
This is the first time that either side has faced a Premier League opponent in this season's FA Cup. Ultimately I expect Everton to progress, but it will be no cakewalk. David Moyes' side are [5.9] to win the cup, with Wigan at a distant [42.0].