Curzon Ashton v AFC Wimbledon: Dons the right price to progress

Alan Dudman
03 December 2016

Wimbledon boss Neal Ardley is looking to overcome Sunday's FA Cup hurdle

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Alan Dudman was successful with his 1.758/11 lay of Oxford on Friday night, and with more televised FA Cup action this Sunday, our man believes Neal Ardley's Wimbledon should progress to the next round...

"According to Opta stats, Wimbledon's Poleon is averaging a goal every 33 minutes in the FA Cup - as he scored twice against Bury in the 66 minutes he was on the field."

Back Dominic Poleon to score @ 2.809/5

Curzon Ashton v AFC Wimbledon

Sunday December 4, 12:00
Live on BT Sport 1

Match Odds

This game presents a similar sort of scenario to the Friday night FA Cup second round clash between Macclesfield and Oxford. The prices for that were 5.509/2 against 1.758/11, and we are not too far away for Sunday's equation; with Curzon at 5.905/1 to back, and Wimbledon at 1.664/6.

The Dons are on the verge of the League One play-offs with 29 points - so I wouldn't be forming the queue to lay them at that price. They are three levels above The Nash in the football pyramid, and enjoyed a decent run in November with just one defeat in seven.

Curzon Ashton have endured a tough passage to reach this stage - knocking out Consett, Bedworth United, York City, and Westfields. Three of those four matches went to replays, so they have earned a crack at Football League opposition.

The National League North side are in the second round of the FA Cup for only the second time in their history.

Curzon Ashton

Manager John Flanagan is in his fifth season at the club, who are now playing at their highest level in their history. Flanagan said of Wimbledon: "I watched them and I never thought 'this is something we can't deal with'. It's one of those banana skins for them and realistically the pressure is on them."

Their league form is a worry - especially at home. With just one victory all season at The Tameside Stadium, there's an argument to say they should be a 9/1 shot for this. They concede too many goals, and are currently shipping an average of just over two per game (37 in 18).

The home team's centre-back Jamie Stott (on loan from Oldham) is suspended, although Liam Tomsett and Niall Cummins are available again after serving bans.

AFC Wimbledon

I've included the Wombles in several League One columns this season, and I've really changed my opinion of them since the start of the season. I like the way they play, and they have shown they can handle the big guns in the division with several good displays - in particular drawing 0-0 at Millwall with a superb defensive show.

The Londoners had a couple of tussles with Bury in the previous round - with both serving up goals. After the first match which finished 2-2, Wimbledon hammered the Shakers 5-0 with Dominic Poleon grabbing a brace, and they should win this. But do we take the 1.664/6 price?

Manager Neal Ardley knows the challenge he faces this Sunday by saying: "It's a massive hurdle in the way. There will be a lot of eyes on us, all expecting, maybe even hoping for an upset."

Barry Fuller is available after suspension, whilst Lyle Taylor needs to shake off a hip flexor problem. Ardley was short on numbers last Saturday, and he'll also be thinking about next weekend's massive game against the MK Dons.

Over/Under 3.5 Goals

With Curzon conceding so many goals at home in the league, it's no surprise that the Over 2.5 Goals is available at fairly short odds of 1.705/7. Going a step up, the 3.5 market might push the price nearer to 2.9015/8 - which is more favourable.

Ardley's side do have a habit of conceding late on though, and that particular Achilles heel popped up last weekend in the 2-2 draw with Fleetwood. A 92nd minute blow wasn't particularly welcomed by me either (as I had previewed the game with a home win) - and that was the fifth time this campaign they have conceded after 90 minutes.

To Score

According to Opta stats, Wimbledon's Poleon is averaging a goal every 33 minutes in the FA Cup - as he scored twice against Bury in the 66 minutes he was on the field. The striker is a clever runner who plays on the shoulder, and he looks to break the offside trap with darting runs. The forward has scored four in his last four.

Burly striker Tom Elliott gives the Londoners plenty of height and he causes opponents all sorts of problems.

Recommended Bet
Back Dominic Poleon to score @ 2.809/5

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