FA Cup / Andrew French / 15 February 2008 /

Andrew French tells us why Southampton's dismal away record is unlikely to improve in tomorrow's televised lunchtime kick-off

Previewing Southampton's FA Cup fifth round tie at Bristol Rovers evoked one of my first footballing memories - I was just five when Bobby Stokes' goal gave Southampton a surprise victory in the 1976 final against the mighty Manchester United.

However, I fancy it will be the Saints on the receiving end of a shock this weekend.

I can't remember much about that game in '76, except that my Dad was really surprised at the result. I have other vague recollections - am I imagining it or did the players used to drink pint bottles of milk after the game as they were being interviewed for TV?

Anyway, my abiding memory was the surprise of Southampton winning, and it has been that element of the unexpected that has, for me, made the FA Cup so great. Only a few weeks ago we saw Havant & Waterlooville lead twice at Anfield, and Liverpool were also involved in one of the greatest upsets ever, when they lost to Wimbledon in the 1988 final.

Shocks in the final are rare these days - you have to go back to 1995 for the last time the trophy wasn't lifted by Arsenal, United, Liverpool or Chelsea.

So the players of Rovers and the Saints will know that should they reach the quarter-finals, it could well be their 'final', especially if they are paired with the winner of this weekend's United/Arsenal tie.

And I believe we could see a shock tomorrow, albeit one that might not be at the top end of the scale.

Rovers are the second-lowest rank side left in the competition, and are tucked away safely in mid-table in League One. However, their league position hides some current form that supports my theory. The Pirates have lost only one of their last 13 league and cup games, and have not lost at the Memorial Stadium in 10 outings. Fulham were dumped out there in the last round.

If that wasn't enough of a signpost to an upset, let's consider Southampton's recent fortunes. They've lost three and drawn one since beating Bury in the last round, and have not won on the road in their last six attempts.

It's that poor form which has seen the south coast club slide down the table, and with only six points between them and the relegation zone, they could certainly do without the added hassles of a replay - and possibly without the distraction of a quarter-final tie.

Having seen manager George Burley take the Scotland job, the club is in the hands of caretakers John Gorman and Jason Dodd, with the search for a permanent boss currently on hold.

So many different factors point towards the Saints being ripe for plucking this weekend, and while I could play safe and suggest laying them at [2.52] to give myself the draw as a security blanket, I'm going to stick my neck out and back Rovers at [3.2].

Despite Saints' last two games producing five goals, I think this will be tighter, and so I think backing Under 2.5 goals at [2.0] is a fair bet.

In line with that, if you want something at a slightly larger price, then consider Rovers to win 1-0 and 2-0 at [12.0] and [23.0] respectively.

As the Saints have not kept a clean sheet away from home in 14 attempts stretching back to September, I'd also suggest backing them to fail to do so again at [1.36].

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