Brighton v Hull: Defences to prevail in low scoring cup snooze fest

Lewis Jones
16 February 2014

Steve Bruce has just been asked if he's taking the FA Cup seriously this year

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Neither of these two exactly set the pulses racing in terms of attacking football and Lewis Jones is putting faith in the hard stats in predicting a low scoring and ultimately forgettable affair...

"No side in the Premier League has been involved in more games that have fallen under the 2.5 goals line than Hull City (77%) while no side in the Championship has been involved in more games that have seen fewer than three goals than Brighton (71%)."

Back Under 2.5 Goals @ 1.674/6

Brighton v Hull
Monday, 19:45
Live on BT Sport 1

Brighton

You get the feeling that things are finally starting to click into gear down on the south coast. Manager Oscar Garcia is slowly picking up the language, key players are returning from injuries and points are being picked up as a consequence.

They may not score many but they don't concede many either, meaning just one goal is enough to win games for the Albion. The Seagulls have won four successive home games in all competitions all by a 1-0 scoreline and are just four points off a play-off spot with a game in hand.

Everything about Brighton, from the stadium to their very sensible and astute owner Tony Bloom, screams sleeping giant and it will be no surprise if they don't get a chance to flex their muscles in the Premier League within the next few seasons.

A successful FA Cup run is well within their grasps this season too.

Win here and a home fixture against Sunderland in a quarter final - their first since 1986 - is a very winnable one and one that would yield plenty of attention with former boss Gus Poyet returning to the club.

Lively wide man Will Buckley may start for the Championship hosts for the first time in 2014 and key holding midfielder Keith Andrews is expected to pass a fitness test after missing the last two games with a hamstring injury.

Hull City

The reality of the way Premier League teams like Hull City treat the FA Cup will be in full flow this evening.

This game, although he won't admit it, will be nothing more than an unwelcome distraction for Steve Bruce despite being just two wins away from a Wembley day out for a set of supporters who haven't reached a FA Cup semi-final since 1930.

The Tigers are just three points above the Premier League drop zone and any prolonged spell of bad results will drag Bruce's men into the mire.

It's very easy to see that happening, too.

The Humberside club has lost five of their last seven league games - all of those losses have come without scoring in reply - but they have won both of their FA Cup clashes 2-0 away from home this season, first at Middlesbrough and then at Southend.

Tigers forward Sone Aluko could make his first start since October, while keeper Allan McGregor is back after a three-match ban.

Match Odds

At 2.56/4, the Seagulls will start the game as favourites, which will surprise many, with Bruce's side 3.259/4 (and drifting) underdogs next to the same price for the draw.

As with most of the FA Cup clashes this weekend the match odds markets are tricky to predict until you get to feast your eyes on the starting line-ups.

Gun to my head, I would just side with Brighton due to their fantastic recent home record - winning the last four games 1-0 - but in terms of strong betting advice, only one bet stands out. Read on.

Over/Under 2.5

Stats lovers, you're about to get all giddy over the case to back the 1.635/8 for Under 2.5 Goals.

This is a clash between two sides that relish tight and defensive focused encounters.

No side in the Premier League has been involved in more games that have fallen under the 2.5 goals line than Hull City (77%) while no side in the Championship has been involved in more games that have seen fewer than three goals than Brighton (71%).

It's safe to assume that those travelling to the Amex Arena won't be venturing there with much hope of seeing a goal fest.

The Tigers have scored just one goal or less in 11 of their 13 away games in the Premier League this season and the fact they are without the cup-tied strike duo of Shane Long and Nikica Jelavic makes it hard to fathom an argument that the visitors will severely test the Brighton back four.

This is a Brighton defence that hasn't conceded a goal from open play at home since Andy King broke through for Leicester in the middle of December. It's a frighteningly solid unit, protected by a fantastically shrewd midfield base and although Brighton rarely put teams under severe pressure in the final third, the tight knit nature of their rear guard makes them a seriously tough nut to crack.

The 2.789/5 for a home clean sheet will surely tempt plenty in.

But for the purposes of an official recommendation, all the smart money should be plunging on the Under 2.5 Goals line.

Recommended Bet

Back Under 2.5 Goals @ 1.674/6

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