Brighton v Arsenal: Easy progress on the cards for upbeat Gunners

Mike Norman
24 January 2015

Expect more scenes like this if Alexis Sanchez plays at the Amex

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Mike Norman takes a look at Brighton's home tie against the defending FA Cup winners on Sunday afternoon, and our man believes a vibrant and upbeat Arsenal side will make smooth progress into the next round...

"And because I expect Wenger's side to ease through to the next round, rather than back them at 1.564/7 to win I much prefer the 5/4 on the Sportsbook about the Arsenal -1 option."

Back Arsenal -1 @ 5/4

Brighton v Arsenal
Sunday 25 Jan, 16:00
Live on BT Sport 1

Brighton

Following last season's play-off semi-final loss to Derby, Brighton were one of the more fancied clubs to challenge for promotion from the Championship this term, being matched at a low of 15.014/1 to win the title and at just 2.01/1 to finish inside the top six.

But it's been a very disappointing season so far for the south coast club; they currently languish 19th in the Championship table despite winning three of their last four league matches.

Chris Hughton replaced the rather dull - and obviously not very good - Sami Hyypia at the turn of the year and like most incoming managers he immediately got a few wins under his belt. But the former Newcastle, Birmingham, and Norwich boss has been at the Amex Stadium long enough now to dispel any possibility of 'new manager syndrome' having an impact here.

Hughton has the option of bringing Lewis Dunk back into the team after the midfielder served a one-match ban in midweek, while Jake Forster-Caskey and Craig Mackail-Smith are also fit again after missing Wednesday's victory over Ipswich. Greg Halford remains sidelined however.

Arsenal

Arsenal's magnificent 0-2 win at Manchester City last weekend moved the north London club up to fifth in the Premier League table, just one point behind Manchester United in fourth and eight points behind last season's champions.

Last week's victory means the Gunners have now won three straight games without conceding and it seems their defensive naivety, especially when leading games, is at last becoming a thing of the past rather than a constant problem.

It remains to be seen what one good result can do for this extremely talented Arsenal side but you sense that the win over Man City has brought about an air of confidence to the FA Cup holders (previously the Gunners had been accused of being unable to win away at the big sides).

It's a difficult task to remember when Arsene Wenger has broken out into a smile more times than he has in the last seven days, that's for sure.

The Arsenal supremo certainly won't want this very welcome bubble to burst at Brighton and despite rumours of a few players being rested (rested for what?) we can expect a strong line-up, though Danny Welbeck is definitely out and Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain faces a late fitness test. Expect to see either Theo Walcott or Mesut Ozil replace the Ox.

Match Odds

Arsenal last played a football match seven days ago, and they don't play again after the trip to Brighton for another seven days - a home game against goal-shy Aston Villa - so there's absolutely no reason for Wenger to risk a cup upset by fielding a weakened side.

So assuming the Gunners are at full strength - and that means starting with the likes of in-form duo Alexis Sanchez and Santi Cazorla, plus Olivier Giroud in attack - then odds of anything around 1.564/7 about an away win still look worth taking.

Brighton - who can be backed at 7.413/2 to cause a shock - have been extremely poor on home soil this season, beating only Leagut Two outfit Cheltenham, and bang-out-of-form (at the time) Lancashire clubs Bolton and Wigan in 14 league and cup games. The Seagulls' 15th home game this term was of course a tremendous 3-2 win over highflying Ipswich in midweek, but one swallow does not a summer make.

The Draw can be backed at 4.57/2 if you believe Hughton's men can earn a lucrative replay at the Emirates Stadium, but I much prefer to concentrate on any outcome that involves Arsenal winning this game at the first time of asking.

And because I expect Wenger's side to ease through to the next round, rather than back them at 1.564/7 to win I much prefer the 5/4 on the Sportsbook about the Arsenal -1 option.

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Effectively what I'm asking myself here is will Brighton get on the scoresheet, or will Arsenal score at least three. If I can make a case for either (or both, obviously) then Over 2.5 Goals at 1.845/6 would have to be the call.

So will the Seagulls find the back of the net? It's a tough one to be honest. They've scored in five of their last six league and cup games and put three past in-form Ipswich on Wednesday night, but they've also failed to score on home soil against Brentford and Millwall in the last six weeks and you have to say that Arsenal's rejuvenated defence will be a tough nut to crack.

But I can certainly see the Gunners scoring a few at the other end. I've already mentioned that I expect Arsenal to be at full strength, and I also fancy the Premier League side to win comfortably. Sanchez is a breath of fresh air and I can see a game like this, and the FA Cup as a whole, being perfect for the brilliant Chilean.

Under 2.5 Goals is available to back at 2.1411/10 but whether it be through Arsenal alone or Hughton's men surprising me a little, then I'm firmly in the 'Overs' camp. And remember, these two sides met at exactly the same stage in 2013, the result being a 2-3 away win for the Gunners.

To Score

He may have only been in England for a little over six months but already Sanchez promises to be one of the best foreigners to grace the Premier League. He has that rare mix of stunning brilliance and an incredible workrate, and above anything his feet are firmly on the ground.

You get the feeling that Sanchez will embrace the FA Cup too, and if like me you envisage a simple Arsenal win then the 2.26/5 about the Chilean adding to his 18-goal tally looks worth an interest.

There has been some talk that Sanchez might be rested, which is rather baffling, but if he does start then expect a big performance.

Recommended Bets
Back Arsenal -1 @ 5/4 (Sportsbook)
Back Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.845/6
Back Alexis Sanchez To Score (anytime) @ 2.26/5 *if he starts

Mike's 2014/15 Individual Match P/L

Staked: 6pts
Returned: 12.14pts
P/L: + 6.14pts

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