FA Cup Stats Preview: Brentford to lead charge of the Championship teams

Andrew Atherley
06 January 2016

Tony Pulis has a good record in the FA Cup

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Andrew Atherley sifts through the third round of the FA Cup and advises backing in-form sides from the top half of the second tier, as well as Tony Pulis' West Brom...

"Brentford, with the added advantage that boss Dean Smith knows the opposition inside out having recently left Walsall, make most appeal of the Championship high-flyers."

Recommended Bet
Back Brentford to beat Walsall at 1.9420/21

Form matters in the FA Cup, even if some patterns can be disrupted by wholesale changes from a team's usual line-up as managers throughout the divisions increasingly set greater store by league results.

One group of form teams always worth a close look are the top half of the Championship table, who often represent good value at home to sides from lower divisions.

What we know about the top 12 of the Championship is that they are having a good season and, all things being equal, have a significant class edge over lower-league opponents.

The problem is that all things are not equal in the FA Cup these days, with many managers leaving out first-string players, but even so the results of the Championship top 12 are often good.

Last season this group won all three home games played against lower-league opponents and, although the results fluctuate, the longer-term trend indicates around a 55-60% chance of success for the home team in that scenario.

Three of the Championship top 12 are in that position this weekend - Brentford (10th) v Walsall (third in League One), Ipswich (sixth) v Portsmouth (fourth in League Two) and Cardiff (ninth) v Shrewsbury (20th in League One).

Brentford and Ipswich in particular have good league records against teams from the bottom half of the Championship, which points to their ability to press home their superiority against lower-class opposition. Both have won eight out of 12 this season in that category, with Brentford six out of six at home and Ipswich having won two and drawn two of their home games.

Brentford, with the added advantage that boss Dean Smith knows the opposition inside out having recently left Walsall, make most appeal of those three Championship high-flyers.

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Baggies to bounce into next round

Tony Pulis is one manager who takes cup competitions seriously and, 12 months on from his first game in charge of West Brom, his side have a good chance of progressing when they host Bristol City on Saturday.

Pulis's first match in charge of the Baggies was a 7-0 home win over non-league Gateshead in last year's third round and, while the opposition is much stronger this time, the visitors are struggling in the relegation zone of the Championship and are without a clean sheet in their last nine games.

History suggests Pulis likes his teams to perform well in cup matches, especially at home, and that factor mitigates against a shock result at the Hawthorns.

In 2011 Pulis took Stoke to the final and in the last nine seasons (with Stoke, Crystal Palace and West Brom) he has won nine out of 12 home games in the FA Cup.

Recommended Bets
Back Brentford to beat Walsall at 1.9420/21 (1pt)
Back West Brom to beat Bristol City at 1.715/7 (1pt)

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2015/16 P/L

Staked: 63 pts
Returned: 51.09 pts
P/L: -11.91 pts

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