Bournemouth v Liverpool: Reds will have to earn the win

Andy Tongue
24 January 2014

Brendan Rodgers needs to strike the right balance between his side's priorities

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Backing the Premier League side to edge a tight affair is the way to profit in this FA Cup fourth-round tie, says Andy Tongue...

"While Suarez and Sturridge would give the home defence a torrid time, one if not both will surely start on the bench"

Back Under 2.5 goals at 2.546/4

Bournemouth v Liverpool
FA Cup 4th Round
Saturday, 12:45
Live on ITV 1

Bournemouth
Having initially sparkled on their return to English football's second tier, Bournemouth have found it tougher going as the season has worn on and currently sit in 16th place in the Championship. Their home form isn't anything to write home about with five defeats to their name already and they have struggled against the division's better sides (just one win to their name over any of the top ten).

However, the Cherries have enough of a cushion over the relegation zone to ensure Eddie Howe will pick his strongest side here and go all out for an upset. Striker Lewis Grabban has 11 goals to his name this season and he's the man who could give the visitors' defence something to think about.

Liverpool
Brendan Rodgers faces the conundrum of putting out a side strong enough to ensure his men can avoid this potential banana skin while keeping much of his powder dry ahead of next Tuesday's derby showdown with Everton. The FA Cup is definitely a competition he wants to win this season and we can expect him to follow the lead from the previous round at home to Oldham when he left Luis Suarez on the bench but still had enough quality to see off the League Two side with two second-half goals.

The news that Lucas Leiva will be out for a couple of months was a huge blow this week but he does have the likes of Martin Kelly, Victor Moses and Iago Aspas who will be keen to show what they can do and try to force their way into Rodgers' plans as the Premier League campaign heads towards the final straight.

Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Over 2.5 goals has been backed down to 1.548/15 on the back of Liverpool's recent defensive trials and tribulations as well as the attacking threats. However Bournemouth will have nothing like the offensive threat of an Aston Villa or Stoke - players like Benteke and Crouch are a cut above what you find at the top of the Championship, let alone the lower reaches. And while Suarez and Daniel Sturridge would give the home defence a torrid time, one if not both will surely start on the bench. Rodgers would love a 1-0 or 2-0 win here and the value lies in backing under 2.5 goals at 2.546/4.

Half time/Full Time
Liverpool took nearly an hour to break down Oldham in the third round and I think we'll see something similar here with the home side coming strongly out of the blocks, roared on by a capacity crowd, before the Premier League side's superior quality shines through once they have weathered that early storm. On that basis backing draw/Liverpool in the Half Time/Full Time market at 4.94/1 is the second recommended bet here.

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