Aston Villa v Leicester
Live on BBC 1
Where do we start? Villa are in a right mess and I've been banging the 'back them to be relegated' drum for over two months now.
Unfortunately for those who listened, the 10 points Villa accumulated in their first four league games of the season still count. But as I said way back then, Villa got those 10 points in miraculous fashion, registering fewer shots on target than any other Premier League club at the time. Oh how that was a sign of things to come.
After that good start Paul Lambert's men (as they were up until Wednesday) took just 12 points from their next 21 league games, scoring an unbelievably low seven goals in that time. Since September, they have been by some distance the worst team in the Premier League.
And of course, Lambert has finally paid the price following a run of five consecutive league defeats that saw the Midlands club drop into the relegation zone for the first time this season on Tuesday night.
But this is the FA Cup and Villa now have Scott Marshall and Andy Marshall in temporary charge, so in some ways the lead-up to Sunday's home tie with the Foxes is now a whole new ball game.
The only surprising aspect of Lambert's sacking was that he wasn't the second managerial casualty in the space of a few days. Every man and his dog were telling us that Nigel Pearson had been shown the door at the King Power Stadium on Sunday night... and it seemed he had, until someone at the club made a dramatic u-turn.
Pearson is certainly hanging on to his job by a thread; the Foxes are now five points from safety at the bottom of the table following four consecutive league defeats, and just two wins - against struggling Hull and Villa - in their last 20.
But like Sunday's opponents, Leicester are at this stage of the competition because they've won a few cup games recently, at home to Newcastle and away at Tottenham, on paper at least, two results that look far better than Villa's home wins over Championship sides Blackpool and Bournemouth.
The big question you have to ask yourself here is how much emphasis do you put on this being a cup game as opposed to a leauge match?
If this were a Premier League relegation six-pointer, on current form you'd fully expect a low-scoring cagey affair and it would be difficult to make a strong case for either of the sides winning. So what's different here?
Well firstly it's a cup match, a free shot if you like. A chance to play under a little less pressure than a league outing - a defeat here isn't going to get you relegated. But one man who will certainly be feeling the pressure still is Pearson. A defeat here might just bring an end to his reign as Leicester boss.
Whether that pressure translates through to the players is another matter, but at 3.185/40 to back the away side isn't my idea of the winner.
Villa are 2.568/5 to back and despite their current form - don't forget they are playing a team in equally poor form - they have to be the call. So often we see a team have an immediate up-turn in results after a managerial departure - QPR grabbed their first away win of the season once Harry Redknapp left for example - and that's a big enough factor in this game to give Villa the edge.
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
As we've already alluded to, cup games can have a completely different complexion to league matches but the fact remains - cup game or not - both these sides really struggle for goals. It's difficult to see that being different here.
The Under 2.5 Goals option in the West Brom v Swansea game in midweek traded close to 1.68/13 so you can make a good case for saying 1.84/5 about the same option here is actually a decent price.
The Baggies had just come off a 2-2 draw, Swansea had scored in their previous six away games. Villa don't do 2-2 games, they don't score goals, but against an equally poor side I can easily see them keeping a clean sheet. Three of the last six meetings between these two sides have ended witht he scoreline being 1-0.
The 0-0 option is available to back at 10.09/1 here and I can see that being a very popular selection.
I'm always fearful of a freak goal, a moment of brilliance, or an early red card however so I generally like to cover a few other scorelines and just let the game play out rather than trade the goalless draw.
The 1-0 to Villa can be backed at 8.615/2 and the 0-1 to Leicester is available at 9.617/2 - dutching those two scorelines along with the 0-0 pays out at around 3.211/5 and that's how I will be playing this market.
Back Aston Villa to Win @ 2.568/5
Back Under 2.5 Goals @ 1.84/5
Dutch 0-0, 1-0, and 0-1 Correct Scores @ 3.211/5