AFC Wimbledon v Liverpool
Monday January 5, KO 19:55
Live on BBC1
Twelfth in League Two, AFC Wimbledon are well clear of the relegation fight and sniffing around the playoff places. The season so far has brought a bit of everything with near identical home and away records (five wins, three draws, four defeats at the Kingsmeadow Stadium, and just one less victory on their travels). Neal Ardley's team look to be in good current form having enjoyed a pair of good victories over the festive period, keeping a clean sheet when winning Portsmouth and then hitting Exeter for four goals to warm up for this Cup clash.
It's been a bumpy old season on Merseyside and just when it seemed Brendan Rodgers had his side hitting their smooth best they threw away a 2-0 lead at home to the Premier League's bottom side Leicester. That New Year's Day draw brought an end to a two game winning streak but the Reds still enjoyed one of the better festive periods with seven points gained, seven goals scored, and one clean sheet kept.
The big news this week was the announcement of captain Steven Gerrard's departure at the end of the season. You can bet the Liverpool legend would love to sign off with a third FA Cup in what would be his last game of English domestic football, although reports suggest he may be rested for this clash. The Anfield side are 10.09/1 to win an eighth FA Cup.
The home side are a mighty 14.013/1 to pull off a shock win with the visitors as short as 1.271/4. Before piling in on Liverpool note that Rodgers' team have been beaten by the underdogs in recent history, bumped out the 2012-13 competition by Oldham (themselves an 18.017/1 shot). So, while there may be 71 places between the two sides, victory is not assured for the Premier League giants and if taking huge odds on massive upsets is your kind of thing then chuck a few quid at the League Two side.
I can't bring myself to do that, however. Liverpool have only lost once in the last 11 games (five wins, five draws in that sequence) and there were signs in recent games that Rodgers is developing a fluid and effective attacking unit. Liverpool should have too much class upfront to get into trouble here.
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
AFC Wimbledon have goals in them, that's for sure. The south London side have scored 33 league goals from 23 games with 20 coming at home. Strike duo Adebayo Akinfenwa and Matt Tubbs are responsible for 20 of those goals and can trouble a Liverpool rearguard that has repeatedly slipped up this season. The market knows all that though and a price of 1.564/7 on Overs is too skinny to tempt. Over 3.5 is 2.3411/8.
Sidemarket Selection - Match Odds/Over 2.5 Goals double
Rather than take short prices on a Liverpool win or Over 2.5 Goals why not combine the two for a decent double? You should be able to get matched at 1.910/11 or thereabouts in this nice new addition to the Exchange offering.
Back Liverpool/Over 2.5 Goals double @ 1.910/11