Euro 2024

Euro 2024 Tips on Tuesday: Back 7/2 best bet in Austria v Turkey

Euro 2024 referee Arthur Soares Dias
Fouls are expected to flow with Arthur Soares Dias in charge

It's the final day of the last 16 matches at Euro 2024 and Mark Stinchcombe is here to talk about the best bets...


20:00 - Austria v Turkey

Those of you who were here for Turkey's last game against Czechia will know we were hoping for cards and wow did we get them! Eighteen were brandished by Romanian referee Istvan Kovacs (15 for betting purposes with three coming after the full-time whistle) as our bet on over 4.5 cards at 7/101.70 cruised in.

Given we're now in the knockout rounds, tensions could continue to rise, and unsurprisingly I wanted to be on the card angle again. Unfortunately this is already factored into the odds with over 4.5 cards just 1/21.50.

It's a shame because it's a fantastic referee appointment in Portuguese Arthur Soares Dias. Last season in Liga Portugal, he averaged 5.91 cards per-game, including red cards for both teams in the final fixture of the season between Farense and Portimonense.

At International level during qualification, he managed to find eight in Montenegro v Lithuania, seven between Poland and Moldova and five when Ireland took on France. He's refreed Turkey twice in the last few years and handed out four and five cards in their matches again Wales and Hungary respectively. However, this time around I'm diving a bit deeper to find some value on similar lines.

On a very similar angle to cards, this looks a perfect match to invest in fouls. We know Turkey's style and Austria are a match made in heaven having committed the most fouls per-game in the tournament at whopping 16.3. Turkey themselves are committing 11.7 per-game yet we can back a Bet Builder at 7/24.50 which looks a great price for them to hit their average.

Dias averaged 29 fouls per-game last season in Portugal's top flight. He gave a staggering 38 when he refereed Montenegro v Lithuania in qualification with a 18-20 split.

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