Euro 2024

Euro 2024 Tips on Friday: Back 2.08 best bet in Portugal v France

French captain Kylian Mbappe
Mesmeric masked Mbappe

It's crunch time at EURO 2024 with the quarter-finals starting and Mark Stinchcombe is here to talk about the best bet...

Portugal v France SuperBoost

You can now back Cristiano Ronaldo to have 3 or more shots in tonight's game with France at 1/12.00! Superboosted up from 1/21.50!

Ronaldo has had 20 shots at Euro 2024 so far, which coming into the quarter-final stages, is at least five more than any other player. Indeed, against Slovenia last time out, Ronaldo had eight attempts, six of which came before extra-time.

Ronaldo has also attempted 3 or more shots in each of his last 16 matches for club and country, amassing 81 shots at goal at an average of 5.1 per game.

Listen to Football...Only Bettor Euro 2024 quarter-finals podcast tips

Spain v Germany

The best two teams in the competition lock horns in the opening game of the quarter-finals on Friday evening in Stuttgart. The market can barely split them with Spain priced at 2.8615/8 and Germany priced 2.9015/8. And neither can I.

Spain have arguably played the better of the two this tournament but Germany have home advantage. Under 2.5 goals is the favourite at 1.834/5 but given the attacking prowess of both teams, and the questionable defences, I'm happy to take a chance on there being more goals than the market expects.

Ten of Spain's last 16 matches have seen over 2.5 goals (63%) and eight of Germany's last 13 home games have seen over 2.5 goals (62%) so they've hardly been goal shy. These two sit in the top three of EURO 2024 for goals scored (9 and 10), expected goals (8.9 and 7.7), shots-on-target (7.5 and 7.3), big chances created (17 and 12) and corners (29 and 31).

Defensively the pairings of Laporte and Le Normand and Tah and Rudiger don't fill me with confidence. Spain have conceded eight in their last 10 under Luis de la Fuente and longer back, Germany's record of 26 conceded in their last 18 doesn't scream title favourites.

Because the goal expectancy is just 2.60, we can actually back over 2.25 goals at 1.8910/11. There's every chance we could see a low scoring game given the magnitude of the occasion, however only zero or one goals will see the bet fully lose. Two goals would be just a half loss with this conservative approach.

Portugal v France

I think France are overpriced here at 2.568/5. The market rates them just 0.2 goals better than Portugal but I think Les Bleus are at least a level above. Under 2.5 goals is just 1.654/6 and that's having a big factor on the match odds. When the market forecasts a low scoring game, it increases the chances of a Draw 3.052/1 and thus pushes the two teams odds out.

Sixteen of the last 21 games here have finished under 2.5 goals which I think is a big driving factor (76%). However, round three of the group stages had a huge impact. With the expanded format allowing three of four teams to qualify from most groups, most teams only needed a point to guarantee qualification and thus played with the handbrake on. Actually, since EURO 2016 five of eight quarter-final matches have seen three or more goals.

Back to the matchup and I think Portugal will see this as a daunting task. They've failed to beat France in 90 minutes in their last seven meetings, failing to score in five of them, despite Cristiano Ronaldo starting every match. In fact Portugal have won none of their last 14 meetings with the French and you have to go back nearly 50 years for the last time they did in 1975. I think the manager Didier Deschamps has the edge having faced Roberto Martinez twice winning both 3-2 and 1-0. Deschamps has won a World Cup and a Nations League at International level compared to Martinez's empty cabinet.

Ultimately it comes down to the odds at the end of the day and I think there's enough to suggest France should be shorter. Looking at them recently against similar levels of opposition suggests that. They were 2.305/4 away to Netherlands in qualification and 2.707/4 away to Germany in a friendly. If we remove home advantage as if the game was played on neutral ground, like here, that would make France significantly shorter.

Case in point is the 2.01/1 France were v Belgium in the previous round. Given the increased odds, we can actually back France -0.25 at 2.0811/10 with the additional security of half our stake back if it finishes in a draw.

Now read Lewis Jones' Euro 2024 Quarter-Final Stat Pack

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Prices quoted in copy are correct at time of publication but liable to change.