Euro 2024

Euro 2024: Goals, fouls and a 25/1 Silva lining in #OddsOnThat markets

Netherlands and Inter Milan defender Denzel Dumfries
Denzel Dumfries (right) led sthe fouls table at the 2022 World Cup

Ahead of Euro 2024, Andy Schooler has trawled the #OddsOnThat markets - and taken a look at the Young Player of the Tournament betting.


Betfair are offering customers a chance to earn a free bet each time the side they back to win Euro 2024 (£10 stake) scores a goal during the group stages. Do you opt for a side who is likely to go deep, like France, or, is your faith in a Portugal side who banged in 36 goals in 10 qualifying matches?

Romelu Lukaku is toward the top of the Golden Boot market after finishing the qualifying campaign as the top scorer with 14 goals - that was 64% of Belgium's 22 goals, so could he and the Red Devils be the side to back with the offer in mind?

Perhaps it is an outsider you fancy to surprise us all - like the much fancied Austria, Hungary or Ukraine, and a few goals in their opening three games could well pay you back for your faith in them before the tournament, and hope their big price takes you all the way!

Make sure you opt-in on the Betfair Sportsbook before the opening game and place a £10 bet (or £5 EW) in the Winner market to qualify!


#OddsOnThat

Many Euro 2024 bets requested by Betfair users have already been priced up - and remember there's still plenty of time you can your suggestions in.

Just use the hashtag #OddsOnThat via X/Twitter and the Betfair traders will look at getting you a price.

In the meantime, here are some of the ones which already look to have potential...

Denzel Dumfries 10 or more foul involvements in group stage - 17/20

Dutch full-back Dumfries was the fouls king at the 2022 World Cup, producing a whopping 17 in five games in Qatar.

A player who likes to drive forward and play an attacking role too, the Inter Milan star was also fouled nine times, taking his 'foul involvement' tally - that's fouls committed plus fouls drawn - above 5 per game.

He's looking at 3.33 across the group-stage matches to land this and recent outings for the national team also suggest that could well happen.

Taking in qualifying and last year's Nations League finals, Dumfries have had 26 involvements in his last eight competitive internationals - an average of 3.25.

Netherlands are in one of the most competitive-looking groups with much-fancied France, dark horses Austria and Poland.

Only one side committed more fouls than Poland in qualifying, while they also scored highly in terms of fouls drawn too.


100 or more goals in the group stage - 11/102.11

You probably head that this season's Premier League saw more goals scored since the 1992 'breakaway' - 3.28 per game.

But an increase in goals was seen in several other European leagues, including Germany and Spain.

The Bundesliga saw its highest foals-per-game average since 1986/87 (3.22), while La Liga's rose to 2.64, its highest in six years.

The last European Championship, in 2021, saw 142 goals in the 51 matches - that's 2.78 per game - and it will only take a small increase push that figure up to 145. That's odds-against at 11/82.38.

Those who like to take a bigger risk will likely be interested in the 155 line - that would take the average just above 3 per game and can be backed at 11/26.50.

However, my best bet in this area is to back 100+ goals in the group stage (an average of 2.78) at 11/102.11.

This phase of the tournament could see a few blow-outs if the big guns show no mercy. For example, Spain won 5-0 against Slovakia three years ago and also put seven past Costa Rica at the World Cup.

Antoine Griezmann 5 or more foul involvements in group stage - 13/82.63

This looks an #OddsOnThat price with potential.

It's probably based on the fact the French star was only involved in six fouls in his eight qualifiers but France were dominant in their group and clearly the level of opposition rises here.

It's worth noting that in this season's Champions League for Atletico Madrid, Griezmann's numbers were considerably higher.

1280 Antoine Griezmann Atletico Madrid February 2024.jpg

There was at least one foul involvement in nine of the 10 matches, 16 in total. A repeat of that average would take him to 4.8 in this group.

As highlighted above, Group D looks fairly competitive (usually good for fouls) with the Poles' foul numbers of significance.

In short, I'm not sure Griezmann should be 13/82.63 here.

Germany, France, Portugal and England to reach semi-finals - 22/123.00

If you subscribe to the old saying that 'the bookies don't get much wrong', then this is a bet for you.

These four sides are the ones the tournament odds will reach the semi-finals.

All are odds-on to win their group and, if that happens, the knockout bracket would be set for this to occur.

It's worth a quick look at the potential routes through.

The hosts are expected to play Denmark or Serbia in the last 16 before facing Spain in the quarter-finals.

France would meet the Czechs or the Turks if the odds play out before then taking on Belgium.

England and Portugal would both face third-placed teams in the last 16 before meeting Italy and Netherlands respectively.

Clearly it wouldn't take a great deal for this to go wrong - a group slip-up may make it impossible prior to the KO stage - but it looks an interesting price.

England, France, Germany and Spain to win all their group games - 80/181.00

Another long-shot dart which looks tempting.

Three teams had 100% records in the group stage at Euro 2020 and these are the top four in the outright betting.

England look to have received a decent draw with Serbia, Denmark and Slovenia their group opponents. Yes, there are some question marks over their defence but a strong attack should be able to see this lot off.

France's pool looks tougher with Netherlands, Austria and Poland, but they are still the undoubted favourites and have the squad strength in depth to win a matchday three game with the Poles even if they decide to rest stars if they are already through (an obvious concern in this market).

Having caught the eye in the March international window with wins over Netherlands and France, the Germans should be able to get the better of Scotland, Hungary and Switzerland.

Spain are probably the biggest question mark here.

They are in with Italy and Croatia, plus Albania (who they play last), but 80/181.00 looks a chunky price.

Young player of the tournament

A relatively new award - it was only introduced in 2016 so there's not a great deal of 'form' to go on in terms of history.

The two winners so far have both been on the attacking side of the game - Portugal's Renato Sanches in 2016 and Spain's Pedri last time out.

Sanches was part of the winning team, while Pedri's Spain made the semis, showing you don't necessarily have to make the final.

I've got a couple of suggestions...

Jeremy Doku - 16/117.00

Doku wasn't regularly first choice at Manchester City last season but he took the chances he did get pretty well.

Crucially in terms of this bet, the Belgium winger is an eyecatching player thanks to his attacking approach which will see him take on opposing full-backs with regularity.

Doku scored 10 times and assisted on seven occasions in his 45 City appearances in 2023/24 - and the majority of those were as a substitute.

He's a likely starter for his country though, for whom he provided four assists in qualifying, and with Romelu Lukaku in the middle, he has a great chance of adding to that tally.

Talk of Belgium's 'golden generation' may have faded but this is still a side to be feared - Leandro Trossard, who shone for Arsenal, particularly in the second half of the season, is also in their forward line, while Kevin de Bruyne is another part of the supply line in behind.

Essentially, Belgium could well enjoy a deep run and if that's the case I'd expect Doku to play a leading role.

Antonio Silva - 25/126.00

Not a name which leaps off the page in terms of this market, primarily because he's a defender, but Silva has just enjoyed an excellent season at Benfica and is now attracting attention from some of Europe's biggest clubs.

The 20-year-old looks to have played himself into the Portugal team - he'll likely form a centre-back partnership with Ruben Dias - and that's a position from where he can star.

Portugal had the best defensive record in qualifying, conceding only two goals in their 10 matches. They were also top scorers and with a squad packed full of quality, I'm expecting them to go deep.

A group containing Czechia, Turkey and Georgia looks very winnable and if that happens they would land of what looks the weaker side of the draw.

Assuming the other seeds do the business too, Portugal then wouldn't be able to face the two favourites - England and France - until the final, with a third-placed team, Netherlands and Germany their most likely knockout route to that title match.

OK, being a defender is traditionally an immediate handicap in markets such as this but Josko Gvardiol came close at the 2022 World Cup, finishing second in the young-player vote to Enzo Fernandez.

Basically, there's enough I like here to have a small bet at the price.


Now read Andy's tournament guide - all you need to know about Euro 2024!

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