Euro 2024

Euro 2024 Semi-Final Tips: Back 7/1 draw best bet

England's Ivan Toney coolly slots home his penalty
EURO 2024 Semi-Finals.....Draws and Penalties!

It's the crunch time as we enter the semi-finals at Euro 2024 and Mark Stinchcombe is here to talk about the best bets across the two games...

Netherlands v England Superboost

England are in the semi-final of Euro 2024, and Betfair are offering up another SuperBoost on Wednesday!

Liverpool and Netherlands defender Virgil Van Dijk can now be backed to commit 1 or more fouls vs England at 1/12.00 - up from 1/3!

Virgil Van Dijk has committed more fouls than any other player at Euro 2024 (12), at an average of 2.4 per 90.

Indeed, he has made a foul in each of the Netherlands' five games at the tournament so far, and committed 2 or more in four of those - 2 v Poland, 1 v France, 3 v Austria, 4 v Romania, 2 v Turkey.

England (73) are the most fouled team at Euro 2024, whilst both Harry Kane (10) and Jude Bellingham (11) sit in the top five most fouled players at the tournament.

Football... Only Bettor Podcast - Netherlands v England Semi-Final tips - Listen here!

EURO 2024 Semi-Finals

We enter the semi-final stage of EURO 2024 with many labelling the tournament a disappointment with the lack of goals. It's difficult to disagree and there's nothing worse than watching a game you knew had a chance of being dull but not having a penny on the outcome. So let's make sure we get paid to watch tight, cagey, tense football!

Unsurprisingly the forecast of two low scoring games is already heavily factored into the odds. Both draws are priced at 9/52.80 and under 2.5 goals is just 4/91.44 so we have to get creative. Most people will be used to seeing the Draw at least at the 9/43.25 mark and low under 2.5 goals price is because the goal expectancy is just 2.25 goals. So how are we going to attack this?

Well let's firstly get the Draws onside by backing the double at 7/18.00. Yes we're increasing the variance by requiring both games to be a draw at full time to get paid but 7/18.00 is much more attractive than the skinny 9/52.80's (no pun-intended). This century, nine of the last 16 EURO semi-finals have finished in a draw (56% - implied odds of 4/51.80) and we know this is the draw tournament with 10 of the last 19 finishing all square (53%).

This is heavily driven by the low scoring nature of the games, since Round Three of the group stages when the tournament was on the line for the majority, 18 of the 24 games have finished under 2.5 goals (75%) with an average of just 1.75 goals per-game. Yet we know we have a goal expectancy of 2.25 in both games so we could be onto something. The lower the goal expectancy, the greater the chance of zero, one or two goals hence why the draw is a big runner with 0-0 and 1-1 prominent scorelines.

Penalties on the agenda

If the games have finished in a draw after 90 minutes, there's a good chance they've been tight and cagey and likely we'll be in for something similar in extra-time. So let's get both games to go to penalties in the book at 20/121.00.

We're at the semi-final stage now with the chance of final on the line, so there's every chance players are even more cautious compared to the quarter-finals and round of 16. Since EURO 2004, when Greece shocked the world and won the tournament playing "anti-football", 13 of 39 knockout ties from quarter-finals onwards have been decided on penalties (33% - implied odds of 2/13.00). This tournament has been no different with three of the last seven ties being decided by spotkicks.

No goalscorers could be the way to play it

Finally let's have third longshot to cheer on by backing both games to be goalless at the end of 90 minutes at 38/1. France have failed to score from open play this tournament and their top scorer is own goal! However, they've also only conceded one goal in their five games that read 0-0, 1-0, 1-1, 0-0, 1-0 which includes the likes of Portugal, Belgium and Netherlands. Spain have also conceded just one goal in 90 minutes - an own goal.

In the other semi, England have only conceded three goals whilst creating just 4.3 expected goals in five games plus two lots of extra-time. England's results have finished 1-1, 1-1, 0-0, 1-1, 1-0. Netherlands have already drawn 0-0 with France as we mentioned. However, the bet is to actually back No Goalscorer in the First Goalscorer market at an identical price. Remember that pesky own goal fella above? He's already scored 10 goals this tournament and if our 0-0 bet loses to an own goal or two it still wins giving us a slight piece of insurance.

Now read Jimmy The Punt's 40/1 Semi-Final tip!

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