Euro 2024

Euro 2024 Quarter-Final Preview: Tour of Golden Boot and Player of the Tournament markets

Italy's Gianluigi Donnarumma
Gianluigi Donnarumma celebrated Italy's success at EURO 2020 by picking up the player of the tournament trophy

The Euro 2024 quarter-finals are upon us and Mark Stinchcombe is back to review R16 and look ahead to the rest of the tournament...


England v Switzerland Superboost

You can now back Granit Xhaka to commit 1 or more fouls v England at 1/12.00 - Superboosted up from 1/41.25!

The former Arsenal man has comitted six in four games so far at Euro 2024, and is no stranger to the referee as we know from his time in the Premier League.

England (60) have won the most fouls of any side at Euro 2024 (15 per game on average), with both Jude Bellingham (9) and Harry Kane (8) sitting in the top 10 of the most fouls won chart. Indeed, only three players (all 10) have managed more than Bellingham.


R16 Round-up & Quarter-Final Preview

England were mightily fortunate to escape from the Round of 16. It took a 95th minute equaliser from Jude Bellingham with their first shot on target in the match, to take the game into extra-time before Harry Kane immediately essentially broke Slovakian hearts with a headed winner.

There's no doubt England were poor, allowing Slovakia to create 1.89 expected goals and have 63% possession in extra-time as they tried to hold onto their lead. It's Switzerland in the next round where England are 6/52.20. Given one of the big four await on the other side of the draw in a potential final, the 7/24.50 looks too short for the tournament faves.

France 9/25.50 Outright and Portugal 15/28.50 were two of the other big guns who underwhelmed in the last round and now meet in a huge clash on Friday night with Les Bleus 13/102.30 favourites.

Despite the French having 19 shots to Belgium's five, they only created 1.06 expected goals and needed a scrappy 85th minute own goal to qualify. Unless Kylian Mbappe sparks they look very ordinary. Portugal huffed and puffed against a dogged Slovenia and although they had over 60% possession, they created fewer than one expected goal. And if not for Diogo Costa's heroics in both extra-time and penalties, they could easily have been sent home.

Spain 4/15.00 and Germany 9/25.50 have been the standout teams of the EUROs so far and they meet in the opening quarter-final on Friday afternoon with the market struggling to split them, with the Spanish ever so slight faves at 13/82.63.

These two sit in the top three this tournament for goals scored, expected goals for, shots on-target, big chances created and corners for in what could be a really open tie. 10 of Spain's last 16 matches have gone over 2.5 goals (63%) and eight of Germany's last 13 home games have seen 3+ goals (62%).

With the low scoring nature of the tournament seeing 16 of the last 21 games finish under 2.5 goals (76%), it's impacting the odds with unders Fav in all but one of the quarter-final matches. Therefore Over 2.5 could be a bet here at 19/201.95.

Netherlands were the big winners of the Round of 16. Not only did they put on an impressive performance with a 3-0 victory over Romania but they will now meet Turkey in the quarter-finals who look dead on their feet following their victory over Austria. The Turk's conceded 21 shots and over three expected goals as only a world class save from Mert Gunok denied the Austrian's extra-time.

The disparity here is reflected in the Outright market with Netherlands now just 7/18.00 and Turkey the huge outsiders at 33/134.00.


Golden Boot

Cody Gakpo 7/24.50 and Jamal Musiala 11/26.50, alongside the knocked-out Georges Mikautadze and Ivan Schranz, with three goals lead the golden boot market. Gakpo seemingly shorter here given the Netherlands are heavy favourites at 1/41.25 to qualify for the semi's compared to Germany at 10/111.91.

Despite not playing well, England's Harry Kane 11/26.50 and Jude Bellingham 14/115.00 along with Kai Havertz 11/112.00 are the main attacking contenders one back on two goals. Given England are 8/151.53 faves to qualify, and will be a similar price v Netherlands or Turkey in the semi, it could make sense to back Bellingham each-way (1/4 Odds, 3 Places) at 14/115.00.

He's well over twice the price of Kane, and came into the tournament off the back of a 23 goal debut season for Real Madrid. If you think he'll start v Turkey, Donyell Malen has made himself a live contender at 40/141.00 with those two late goals against Romania.


UEFA Player of the Tournament

Jamal Musiala 6/17.00, Toni Kroos 13/27.50 and Jude Bellingham 7/18.00 continue to lead the market for Player of the Tournament. However, the Winner has always come from a team that has at least made the Final, and with the top half of the draw housing all of Spain, Germany, France and Portugal, it makes sense to look at the alternative options in the other side of the draw.

Only that man again Cody Gakpo 10/111.00 is in the top 10 of the betting from the bottom half of the draw to give an idea of the minefield of this market. Granit Xhaka 22/123.00 has had a fantastic tournament but Switzerland would still need to overcome England then Netherlands/Turkey to reach the final - a 7/24.50 shot already.

Virgil van Dijk is 40/141.00 and is no stranger to individual accolades whilst only Spain and France have conceded fewer goals than England's two and potentially some more penalty heroics could elevate Jordan Pickford 80/181.00 into the conversation. Gianluigi Donnarumma won this accolade at EURO 2020.


UEFA Young Player of the Tournament

Lamine Yamal is standout favourite here at 6/52.20 and it's difficult to argue with the price considering everything he has achieved at just 16 years-old. His 17th birthday comes one day before the final and with Spain 4/15.00 second faves, a double celebration could be written in the stars.

Musiala follows swiftly behind at 11/53.20 before Nico Williams 11/26.50. Arda Guler 9/110.00 has looked fantastic for Turkey but with them just 1/41.25 to exit at this stage, it looks difficult to upset one of the top two in the market, with one of them guaranteed to make at least the semi's.


Now check out Opta's Euro 2024 Quarter-Final Preview

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Prices quoted in copy are correct at time of publication but liable to change.