Euro 2024

Euro 2024 Day Seven Predictions: Back 9/1 Eriksen fouls on the Betfair Exchange

Jude Bellingham was a foul magnet against Serbia so cash in with a big Denmark midfielders fouls committed price.
Jimmy says Christian Eriksen's price to commit some fouls against England is too big.

Jimmy The Punt fancies Serbia to bounce back from the defeat to England, an unlikely source of fouls in Denmark's game with the Three Lions and Italy to cause Spain some issues in the final game of Euros day seven...

England Superboost

Don't fix what isn't broken they say, so Betfair are going again with the exact same Superboost selection in Denmark v England.

You can back Harry Kane and Jude Bellingham each to be fouled 1 or more times vs Denmark at 1/12.00, Superboosted up from 1/21.50!

The same selection won at a canter on MD1 vs Serbia, with Kane winning his first foul in the 55th minute to add to a couple that Bellingham had already won in the first half.

Indeed, Kane (6) and Bellingham (4) were fouled 10 times combined in the opening game, and will no doubt be targeted once again.

Heading into the Serbia match, the duo had been fouled 55 times between them in their last 15 England appearances, but their average has now risen to over 4 fouls won per game across their last 16 international caps.

Back the Superboost here!

Listen to Football...Only Bettor Euro 2024 today's best tips (featuring a special guest)...

Slovenia vs Serbia

  • Thursday, June 20, 14:00

Unfortunately for fans of tidy number 10's (me), Dragan Stojkovic dropped Serbia's creator-in-chief Dusan Tadic and opted for a more defensive minded trio of Sergej Milinkovic-Savic, Nemanja Gudelj and Sasa Lukic.

It is fair to say Serbia made a sluggish start against England as it took them six minutes to complete their first pass.

After falling to lay a glove on the Three Lions in the first half, Stojkovic brought on Ivan Ilic, Tadic and Luka Jovic after the interval and the Eagles finished as the stronger team.

Speaking after the game Stojkovic said: "England are a very good, strong team, but we played a very brave game; the style of football we were aiming to play."

Up next for his nation is Slovenia and I feel it could be the ideal opponent for Serbia to bounce back and get some points on the board.

Since the World Cup, Serbia have scored 25 goals in 15 games and look primed to put a few past Slovenia on Thursday if they can emulate the second half display. At 2.166/5, backing over 2.5 goals is the bet here.

Serbia are more than capable of covering this line on their own but have also only kept three clean sheets since the World Cup.

As Slovenia proved with the point against Denmark, they are capable of a few surprises this summer. Erik Janza netted his nation's first goal at a Euros final ever but it was coming as Benjamin Sesko rattled the woodwork moments before.

Denmark vs England

  • Thursday, June 20, 17:00

England's last Euro campaign was built on a solid defence. En route to the final the Three Lions kept three clean sheets and kicked off 2024 with another, something Jude Bellingham thinks the side deserve more credit for.

He said: "The first half shows why we can score goals against any team and the second half shows why we can keep a clean sheet against any team."

With that in mind, siding with under 2.5 goals against Denmark on Thursday appeals at 1.748/11.

It clicked for the Danes in their opening game as well and having dropped two points against Slovenia, the onus is on them to take the game to England, a dynamic that will not necessarily suit them.

Kasper Hjulmand inherited a pragmatic squad and got a reputation as an attacking coach for making more offensive changes but in truth I think he is more conservative than most think. Hjulmand will probably look at this clash as a game they cannot lose, not a must win.

Jude Bellingham was talismanic against Serbia and covered the majority of the pitch.

Unsurprisingly, Serbia was forced to stop him illegally.

Only Eales keeper, Predrag Rajkovic and Filip Kostic, who was forced off in the first half failed to commit at least one foul.

Serbia's three midfield and front two combined to commit nine fouls so I think another angle worth considering is the Danes foul market.

Bellingham was dropped so deep to influence the game it wasn't just his direct opponent committing fouls on him.

This is why I think Christian Eriksen is worth a tout in the fouls market. The midfield is not a player famed for his off the ball antics which is why the Danish number 10 is such a good price.

Eriksen to commit one foul is currently 2.6613/8 on the Exchange and two fouls is 10.09/1, both are worth a small punt, the latter is as short as 4.3310/3 with some bookmarkers.

Another bonus with backing Erikson is he was the only Danish midfielder to play the full 90 minutes against Slovenia.

Spain vs Italy

  • Thursday, June 20, 20:00

Group B's big hitters are only split by goal difference after matchday one but the pair featured in contrasting opening games.

Spain beat Croatia 3-0 whilst Italy came from behind to beat Albania.

The result is all that matters in the opening game of a tournament, not the performance but the scoreline in La Roja's victory over Croatia flattered them a little.

Luis de la Fuente's side's high-press caused Croatia problems initially but once they realised how to bypass it, they began to find allsorts of space higher up the pitch.

Luciano Spalletti has said his side are not going to overestimate Spain and play their own game and with Federico Chiesa they could cause some damage.

Chiesa had three shots against Albania so his price to score against Spain is worth considering.

The only reason Spain didn't concede against Croatia was slack finishing as the opponents notched up more xG (2.38-20.1) and missed each of the three 'big chances' they created.

Now read all our previews & tips in our Euro 2024 betting hub

Recommended bets

New Customers can get £50 in free bets!

Available to new customers only. Place a £10 bet on the Betfair Sportsbook and you will receive £50 in free bets to use on Bet Builders and Accas! Opt-in here and T&cs apply.

Prices quoted in copy are correct at time of publication but liable to change.