Today's Euros Tips: England ready to exploit German weaknesses

Charlie Mullan
29 June 2021
05:00 min read

Gareth Southgate's England face Germany at Wembley for a place in the last eight

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After another thrilling day of football which saw the favourites France knocked out by Switzerland, England and Germany meet at Wembley with a place in the quarter-finals up for grabs. Here's how the key markets are looking.

"Germany's defensive record has been questionable for the last few years, not least November's 6-0 loss in Spain and the home defeat to North Macedonia in World Cup qualifying in March."

Back England to beat Germany at 2.56/4

Andy Brassell on England v Germany

With the Euro 2020 draw opening up invitingly for England, it is to be expected that a few nerves are creeping in ahead of the meeting with Germany at Wembley. The enormity of facing a historical rival is one thing. The feeling that beating Jogi Löw's side holds the key to a run at the whole tournament is something else entirely.

Gareth Southgate's task is to separate the imagined threat from the real one. The traditional view of Germany is of a team that steps up in tournament finals no matter what the quality or otherwise of their squad. That simply doesn't hold water here.

There's plenty to like about the ability at Löw's disposal but this current Germany are about as far from a solid unit who can grind out results as you could imagine.

England have nothing to fear

Their defensive record has been questionable for the last few years, but the lack of a collective plan and of any stability is exposed by some of the setbacks suffered in that time, not least November's 6-0 loss in Spain and the home defeat to North Macedonia in World Cup qualifying in March.

That hall of horrors could have been augmented by a loss against Hungary in Munich in the final group match here but the joint enterprise of Bayern pair Jamal Musiala and Leon Goretzka saved them. Both will need to contribute significantly at Wembley if Germany are to flourish, but England can do just what Die Nationalmannschaft are habitually known for - edging their way to an unspectacular win.

Back England to beat Germany at 2.56/4

Sweden's defence to be tested by Ukraine

Ukraine are the sole representatives from Group C after Austria and the Netherlands were beaten at the weekend. If Andriy Shevchenko's side are to extend their stay in Euro 2020, then they will need to beat a well organised Sweden side at Hampden Park.

Andriy Shevchenko - 1280.jpg

Sweden have been one of the surprise packages of this tournament so far. A goalless draw with Spain in their opening game filled the Swedes with confidence in back-to-back wins by a one-goal margin over Slovakia and Poland. The performances, or rather the results, follow a trend that continues to follow the Scandinavians around previous European Championships.

Eight of their last nine matches have either been draws or been settled by the narrowest of margins. Sweden have lost nine matches at the Euros in normal time and all but one have been by a one-goal margin. The Swedes are 11/4 to win by a single-goal margin while Ukraine, whose three group games were decided by a one-goal margin, are 7/2 to win by the smallest of margins.

Sweden stat 290621.png

If Ukraine are to win, they will have to do something that few teams have done against Sweden in recent times and that is score. Only twice has the Swedish defence been breached in their last eight matches. Sweden are 11/4 to win to nil while their opponents are 7/2 to win without conceding a goal.

With Cristiano Ronaldo watching the remainder of the Euros from home, Emil Forsberg will hope to draw level with the tournament's leading scorer with a couple of goals against Ukraine.

The Swedish midfielder is two goals behind Ronaldo and one behind Patrik Schick who will be looking to add to his goals in the Czech Republic's quarter-final against Denmark. Forsberg is a 32.031/1 option on the exchange to win the Golden Boot award.

Read Mark O'Haire's preview and tips for Sweden v Ukraine here

Swiss send French packing after Mbappe miss

What a tournament this is turning out to be. Favourites France were dumped out of Euro 2020 at the end of another brilliant day of football. The French only have themselves to blame after blowing a 3-1 lead with nine minutes remaining.

Credit to the Swiss who didn't crumble when faced with a two-goal deficit and were backed at 180.0179/1 to qualify. The Swiss will now face Spain in Friday's quarter-final and what a game that promises to be.

Over £12,000 was matched at 1.011/100 on France to qualify, but it wasn't to be for Les Bleus whose fate was sealed when Kylian Mbappe missed the tenth and final penalty in a tense shootout. It summed up France during this tournament and Mbappe's form too as he failed to score in their four matches.

Take nothing away from Switzerland. Few gave them a chance to beat the favourites, but the spirit within that squad of players is very impressive. They started Monday as 100/1 rank outsiders to win the Euros but the Swiss have moved to 22/1 after making the quarter-finals of the Euros for the first time ever.

On June 23, a record 18 goals were scored while yesterday's action produced 14 more at a rate of a goal every 17 minutes.

This tournament has already produced the most goals of any European Championship in the past. Mario Gavranovic's 90th minute equaliser that forced extra-time, was the 118th goal scored and there are still nine matches left to play.

Of the 14 goals netted yesterday, 12 came in normal time. How many goals will be scored in today's two Round of 16 matches? Eight goals or more is available at 6.25/1 on the exchange. Roll on today's action.

Spain pushed all the way by gutsy Croatians

Earlier in the tournament, we were critical of Spain and how their inability to turn their possession into goals left many frustrated. However, scoring five times in each of their last two matches is the perfect way to get those disillusioned spectators back on side. Their match with Croatia in Copenhagen had everything including another bizarre own goal involving a keeper.

Alvaro Morata - 1280.jpg

Spain's Unai Simon was the culprit this time five days after Martin Dubravka gifted the Spaniards their first goal in a 5-0 drubbing of Slovakia. If this is the way Spain are going to play from now, let's hope they reach the final which can be backed at 2.727/4.

The eight goals shared between Croatia and Spain is the second highest scoring game in the history of the European Championships.

Questions remain about their ability to defend, but if they can continue to score freely, those questions might not have to be answered. Six different players have scored for Spain which shows they don't have to rely on one player to score their goals like Portugal do with Cristiano Ronaldo. Luis Enrique's side are 4.3100/30 to win Euro 2020 and get their hands on the Henri Delaunay trophy for the third time in four tournaments.

A total of £125,000 was matched on Spain to qualify at prices between 1.011/100 and 1.101/10 while a 3-3 draw at the end of normal time had been matched at 410.0409/1 on the exchange.

If this is what we can expect from the remaining matches in the tournament, we are in for a feast of football between now and July 11. Euro 2020 is certainly a tournament worth waiting an extra year for.

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