Euro 2020 Tips: Why Spain can be victorious this summer

Alex Keble
18 May 2021
5:00 min read

Luis Enrique has had good preparation for Euro 2020

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Alex Keble assesses the five favourites to win Euro 2020, predicting that Spain's good form and easy run to the final make them worth a bet...

"Injuries to Maguire and Virgil van Dijk mean Spain may not need particularly talented goalscorers to squeeze through to the final and cause an upset."

England may apply the brakes too much

England are considered tournament favourites primarily because of home advantage; this might be a European-wide competition but if England top Group D and reach the final then six out of their seven matches will be at Wembley. Given that Covid-19 will limit opposition fans in stadiums this is big news for Gareth Southgate's very talented squad.

The main obstacle to success is whether England can balance pragmatism and low-block possession football to the correct degree. They must play more assertively than in the 2018 World Cup if they are to win the tournament, and yet Southgate's conservative instincts may leave England fans frustrated as creative players like Jack Grealish, Jadon Sancho, and Trent Alexander-Arnold are left out of the starting line-up. Will that create too much tension for the England squad to bear?

Then again, should England avenge Croatia in their opening game then Southgate's side really have nothing to fear. Only France boast a more talented first 11, who England can avoid until the final if they top Group D. Much will rest on whether Harry Maguire returns in time to lead England's defence, because even with John Stones in good club form this is England's weakest area.

Question marks remain over what formation Southgate will default to once England reach the latter stages, and whether he is capable of confronting revered opposition as equals. In other words, the battle for England is as much psychological as tactical or technical.

England fans are born pessimistic such is the overbearing, anxious history that tends to weigh the players down. There are perhaps too many unknowns to back England to beat (most likely) Portugal, Spain, the Netherlands, and France.

France are in their prime and should win

Didier Deschamps will approach Euro 2020 in much the same way as the World Cup: taking the best squad of footballers in the world and drilling them in a cautious defensive system that worries more about clean sheets than playing entertaining football. France are undoubtedly the best team at the tournament and yet, frustratingly, will play the kind of safety-first football that limits their talents but makes them even harder to beat.

N'Golo Kante and Paul Pogba are the key players in midfield, because - supported by Adrien Rabiot - they will be charged with creating the majority of the team's chances. Kante excels in a more defensive role than at Chelsea, such is the Ranieri-style stand-off tactics deployed by his national team manager, while Pogba clearly benefits from the added discipline and stripped-back role.

But stranger things have happened than an early France collapse. They face Portugal and Germany in the group of death, and while they will surely qualify it could be as the second- or third-ranked in Group F, meaning a possible second-round tie against England. There are no guarantees in international football and few nations have as gruelling a run to the final as France.

Nevertheless, they are worth backing. Their World Cup winning squad isn't just intact but three years more mature: from Kylian Mbappe to Raphael Varane, France are in their prime.

Belgium's ageing defence a barrier

Belgium's showing at the World Cup went a long way to disproving the theory that Roberto Martinez cannot coach a defence. The Belgians were perhaps more open than others, but only in the pursuit of surging attacking football that made the best use of their attacking talent. Unfortunately for Martinez the squad's dynamic has changed quite a bit since then.

The good news for Belgium is that Romelu Lukaku, Kevin de Bruyne, and Youri Tielemans have enjoyed very good domestic seasons. The bad news is that Vincent Kompany has retired, the golden generation of defenders are all well into their thirties, and Eden Hazard hasn't settled at Real Madrid. The Belgium squad is no longer the glittering array of stars it once was.

When coupled with Martinez's attacking instincts - a tactic that rarely works on the cautious international stage, where players have so little time to get in sync - Belgium's ageing defence is a cause for serious concern. Toby Aldweireld, Jason Denayer, and Jan Vertonghen is a worrying line-up for whenever Belgium face the tournament favourites.

Spain's strong midfield makes them dark horses

Spain's 6-0 win over Germany in the UEFA Nations League has made people sit up and pay attention. Luis Enrique hardly presides over a vintage set of Spanish players but they are playing with a fluency and understanding that is rarely found in international football, making them worthy dark horses at Euro 2020.

This is a team built in the image of the 2010 World Cup winners, in that its key components are silky possession players who play for the collective. Rodri, Pedri, and Koke make for a formidable central midfield backed up by Sergio Busquets, and considering how important cautious possession football has become in international tournaments that foundation may carry Spain a very long way.

However, in the final third Spain are relying on Ferran Torres (who hasn't played much for Manchester City this season), RB Leizpig's Dani Olmo, and Alvaro Morata - which will hardly make opposition defenders quake in their boots.

But Spain have a good run to the final. If they top a group containing Sweden, Poland, and Slovakia they will face a third-place team in the last 16, England in the quarter-finals, and Netherlands in the semi-finals. Injuries to Maguire and Virgil van Dijk mean Spain may not need particularly talented goalscorers to squeeze through to the final and cause an upset.

Germany are in crisis and nowhere near good enough

After a disastrous 2018 World Cup the German FA made the even more disastrous decision to keep Joachim Low and entrust him to the rebuild. It clearly has not worked and Germany are in their worst state for some forty years, most recently losing 2-1 at home to North Macedonia. There is no doubt a talented young generation are coming through - Leroy Sane, Timo Werner, Kai Havertz - but Low is the wrong manager.

He is set to be replaced after the tournament, which puts a dark shadow over their Euro 2020 campaign, and if that wasn't bad enough Germany have Portugal and France in their group. It is entirely conceivable that they lose both of these matches and face an anxious play-off with Hungary in the final game. Name recognition alone puts them among the favourites.