Euro 2020 Semi-Final Cheat Sheet: Best bets for Italy v Spain in one place

  • Max Liu
  • 3:00 min read
The Euro 2020 trophy in Rome
Euro 2020 began in Rome so will the trophy end up there?

Our Euro 2020 betting experts have all the best angles covered as Italy play Spain in the first semi-final at Wembley on Tuesday evening...

Mark O'Haire: "The Azzurri have produced the most rounded performances at the competition, working from a solid platform, with the best midfield in the tournament, as well as an attack that's been scoring goals in-line with opportunities created."

Italy v Spain: Azzurri favoured in mouthwatering semi-final

Italy v Spain
Tuesday July 6, 20:00
Live on BBC

Italy have only beaten Spain twice in their last 14 meetings in all competitions (D7 L5) but the most recent of those Azzurri victories was in the Euro 2016 round of 16. They are 2.568/5 favourites to win this inside 90 minutes with Spain 3.211/5.

Mark O'Haire says: "European Championship semi-finals tend to be tight affairs. Going back to the beginning of Euro '96, the 12 previous final-four fixtures have produced an average of only 1.83 goals per-game. A strong 67% of matches featured Under 2.5 Goals 1.705/7, although a reasonable 5/12 (42%) paid out for Both Teams To Score 2.001/1 backers.

"Euro 2020 has averaged an encouraging 2.81 goals per-game and the quarter-final contests involving Italy and Spain suggested neither team are likely to sit back, or revert to a pragmatic style of play. However, I'm happy to steer clear of the goals markets and instead invest interest in Italy at 1.804/5 off a scratch 0 start on the Asian Handicap.

"The Azzurri have produced the most rounded performances at the competition, working from a solid platform, with the best midfield in the tournament, as well as an attack that's been scoring goals in-line with opportunities created. Italy's unbeaten streak is difficult to ignore and Roberto Mancini's men also boast a significant rest edge over the Spaniards.

"The selection means we'll see our stake returned as a push if the match ends all-square, and be paid out at 1.804/5 should Italy win in 90 minutes."

Mark's bet: Back Italy +0 Asian Handicap at 1.804/5

Euro 2020 Tactical View: Italy will need Extra-Time

Alex Keble previews the tactical battle between Italy and Spain predicts that we could be in for a late night...

Alex says: "These are two very similar teams tactically, both looking to retain possession for long periods through their talented central midfields and respective 4-3-3s, and that probably means this will be a tense and cautious game of football. For Spain, their primary strategy is for Pedri and Koke to split wide for Sergio Busquest to play through the lines, although from here they often run out of ideas - struggling to create many chances from open play.

"Jordi Alba is their most important attacker and his head-to-head with Giovanni Di Lorenzo will be interesting to watch, certainly more so than on the other side now that Leonardo Spinazzola is out injured. He has been Italy's chief creator in the final third, making him a huge loss to Roberto Mancini. However, despite a mild advantage to Spain on the flanks there is very little between the teams and neither have been free-scoring in this competition.

R Mancini - 1280 (2).jpg

"Italy's midfield three of Marco Verratti, Jorginho, and Nicolo Barella - who got a goal and an assist against Belgium - is just as good at retaining the ball as their Spanish counter-parts, which should create a game of long bouts of possession, from one side to the other, and sadly little goalmouth action. Extra-time is definitely on the cards."

Alex's bet: Back under 1.5 goals in Italy v Spain at 3.185/40

Football...Only Bettor Daily Euros Preview: Italy v Spain and England v Denmark

Kevin Hatchard is joined by Mark O'Haire, Jake Osgathorpe & Jason Murphy for their verdicts on Italy v Spain on Tuesday and England v Denmark on Wednesday. Get their best bets on the two matches as well as some interesting shouts in the Player of the Tournament markets.

Italy v Spain: Add Chiellini in 11/1 shots treble

Paul Higham's latest Bet Builder column picks out a trio of shooting stars for Italy v Spain including the unlikely Giorgio Chiellini.

Paul says: "We're swinging for the fences with the third leg of our treble, but stay with me as it is a semi-final so we're looking to bump up our return with none other than grizzled old Italy defender Giorgio Chiellini.

"The Azzurri skipper is a whopping 4.216/5 to hit the target here, something he's already done once in the tournament from his two efforts on goal. He's even had a goal disallowed in this tournament already.

"Chiellini scored against Spain at Euro 2016 and Luis Enrique's side haven't exactly looked solid at the back from set pieces, something which Switzerland played on as they created four headed chances from dead balls in the quarters.

"Leonardo Bonucci has had three shots this tournament and also had a goal ruled out and both he and his centre back partner to have a shot on target is a tasty double that comes in at around 19.018/1 with Bet Builder if you're feeling extra brave.

"For us though, we're sticking with the skipper to hit the target as the third man in our trio for the recommended Bet Builder levelling out at around 12.011/1."

Paul's bet: Back Olmo, Chiesa & Chiellini 1+ shots on target in Italy v Spain with Bet Builder at around 12.011/1

Euro 2020 Daily Report: Semi-finals can follow high scoring trend

Who will be the first team through to Sunday's Euro 2020 final? Leading scorers Spain or a rejuvenated Italy? Charlie Mullan discusses the key markets .

Charlie says: "Italy won all three of their group games to nil, but Spain are a greater challenge than Turkey, Switzerland and Wales were. Italy will snap your hand off for a boring 1-0 win like the old days and Mancini's side are 4.1 on the exchange to win to nil.

"When Nicolo Barella fired Italy into a 1-0 lead against Belgium in Friday's quarter-final, it was the fifth successive match at the Euros in which Italy had scored the first goal. The Italians are 5/6 to open the scoring against the Spaniards and maintain their record of never trailing at any stage of the tournament to date.

"Three of Italy's five matches at Euro 2020 have seen over 2.5 goals scored while two of Spain's last three matches have seen over 2.5 goals netted. Over 2.5 goals can be backed at 2.3611/8 on the Exchange."

Back Over 2.5 goals @ 2.3611/8

Italy v Spain: Back Azzurri to march on with Wembley Bet Builder

Max Liu rolls three bets into one for an Italy v Spain Bet Builder and backs that man Isnigne to play a pivotal role again.

Max says: "At Wembley on Tuesday, Italy will punish the moments of laxness to which the Spanish have so far been prone. I expect those two 120 minute matches to catch up with Enrique's men too and Roberto Mancini's players should be the fresher.

"Italy eliminated Spain at Euro 2016 and I'm prepared to take the 6/4 available on them to win inside 90 minutes here.

"For all that I rate Italy and distrust Spain, I'm not anticipating a one-sided contest. It will be close. Italy conceded in both their knockout matches and Spain should have enough to get on the scoresheet. I'll take the 9/10 on both sides scoring at Wembley.

"Finally, I'd like a bet on an individual player to pump up the price of this Bet Builder and make things truly interesting. Lorenzo Insigne, who scored the winner against Belgium, has been involved in 13 goals in his last 15 appearances for Italy in all competitions (six goals, seven assists), and I'd back him for an assist here at 9/2."

Back Italy to win, both teams to score and Lorenzo Isnigne for an any time assist @ 17.016/1

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