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Euro 2020 Group A Betting Guide: Italy, Switzerland, Turkey, Wales

Editor
30 May 2021
6:00 min read

Bale is more important to his team than any other player at Euro 2020

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Italy are firm favourites to win Group A at Euro 2020 but Switzerland, Turkey and Wales will be no pushovers and can all compete for qualification to the knockout rounds...

"Wales play their opening two games in Baku, against Switzerland and Turkey, with their third game in Rome against Italy, a slight advantage as it will allow for less travel than Switzerland."

Italy - Azzurri look solid this time

Sam Kingston of the Betfair trading team says Italy have a manager who knows how to get results and experienced players who excel at getting the job done.

Profile: The Azzurri are nearly always competitive when they qualify for international tournaments. They have a better record at World Cups than European Championships, although they did win this competition in 1968. With the current crop of talent all plying their trade at big European clubs, and a manager who has won Premier League and Serie A titles, they will expect to top Group A and be a match for anyone they meet in the knockout rounds.

How They Qualified: Italy won all 10 of their matches in qualifying, scoring 37 goals and conceding four. Their opponents were Finland, Greece and Bosnia, and an Armenia side who the Italians thumped 9-1.

The Manager: Roberto Mancini won the Premier League with Man City, and three back-to-back Serie A titles with Inter Milan. He can be an abrasive manager, with a history of arguments with players and opposing managers, but he usually gets results as demonstrated by his 67% win-rate with Italy.

Roberto Mancini Italy.jpg

The Squad: They played 4-3-3 all the way through the qualifiers but should have no issue switching to a back three if needed, with plenty of their players used to that formation with their club sides. They should be defensively well set up, with pace and skill on the counter attack. At the heart of defence, Giorgio Chiellini and Leonardo Bonucci are winners with bags of experience and they will do whatever it takes to get the job done.

Key Man: Federico Chiesa has had a superb debut season for a struggling Juventus side, with 12 goals and eight assists. Still only 23, he has the ability to light up this tournament.

One To Watch: Manual Locatelli started two of Italy's three World Cup 2022 qualifiers so far and seems to be a big part of Mancini's plans. After a super season for Sassuolo, with an overall rating of 7.03, the young midfield general looks comfortable on the ball and physical off it.

Tournament Prospects: It would be a surprise to see Italy finish anywhere other than top of Group A. Italy have the advantage of playing all three of their Group matches in the Stadio Olimpico in Rome.

How To Bet On Italy: If Italy top their group, they will play the runner up of Group C (Holland, Ukraine, Austria, North Macedonia), which looks like the weakest of all the groups. Italy's path to the quarter-final is quite straightforward. We make them 1/2 to reach the last eight, but anything bigger than this is worth a bet.

Switzerland - Defence can give them a run

Sam Kingston of the Betfair trading team thinks the Swiss have a good chance of finishing second in the Group.

Profile: Ranked 13th in the world, this Swiss generation has largely underachieved, failing to make it past the last 16 of a tournament since 1954. They bowed out in the second round in 2016 but they arguably have a stronger squad this time. They have a favourable group and will be disappointed if they do not get out of it.

How They Qualified: Topped a group that also featured Republic of Ireland and Denmark, winning five, drawing twice and suffering their solitary defeat to the Danes.

The Manager: Before taking over the national side in 2014, Vladimir Petkovic mainly managed Swiss clubs, although he had a two-year stint at Lazio during which times he won the Coppa Italia in 2013. Under Petkovic's management, Switzerland have a 51% win rate.

The Squad: It's likely they'll play 4-4-2 against Turkey and Wales, and switch to a back three against Italy. Petkovic likes balance from his wide players, and deploys Steven Zuber on the left of midfield with Xherdan Shaqiri on the right. With Remo Freuler and Granit Xhaka, they have a strong core in midfield. They like playing with a big target man in Haris Seferovic. He's scored 22 goals in 43 appearances for Benfica this season.

Xherdan Shaqiri Switzerland 1280.jpg

Key Man: Switzerland depend on captain Xhaka for ball retention and to hold that strong midfield partnership with Freuler. The replacements for centre midfield are different types of players, so the team would need to change their style if Xhaka were to get injured.

One To Watch: The young, energetic defensive midfielder Denis Zakaria plies his trade in the Bundesliga for Borussia Monchengladbach. He won't start but could be important off the bench or be a great alternative if there injuries. He covers a lot of ground and could be very useful to Petkovic.

Tournament Prospects: They will play both Turkey and Wales in Baku, and face Italy in Rome. This puts the Swiss at a slight disadvantage in terms of travel, especially with Italy being their second game. Even so, Petkovic's men would expect to qualify from the group, and if they manage to come second they will play the runners up from Group B.

How To Bet On Switzerland: Switzerland are the second best rated side in the group, and should give Italy the best game of all three sides. With Wales' managerial troubles, a win against them should get the Swiss through the group, and they should be slight favourites against Turkey. The battle for second place could come down to goal difference between Switzerland and Turkey and, with the Swiss' more defensive set up against Italy, they should be able to keep the score down and maybe even pick up a point. Back Switzerland to finish as Group A runner up at 21/10.

Turkey - Should make the knockout rounds

Rob Jones of the Betfair trading team thinks a lack of strength in depth up front will be Turkey's biggest problem.

Profile: Reaching the semi-finals of the 2008 tournament was Turkey's best Euros performance by far. They next qualified in 2016 and crashed out in the group stage.

How They Qualified: Turkey were impressive runners up in their group, just two points behind France. Turkey conceded only three goals in 10 games and were extremely difficult to break down. Since then they've suffered disappointing results in the Nations League but looked back on track in recent World Cup qualifiers, with a 4-2 victory over the Netherlands.

The Manager: Senol Gunes is vastly experienced and this his second stint in charge of the national team. He lead them to a third place World Cup finish in 2002 and won back-to-back Turkish Super Lig titles in 2016 and '17 with Besiktas.

The Squad: Turkey generally line up in a 4-2-3-1 formation. In Caglar Soyuncu and Merih Demiral they have an outstanding young defensive partnership, although the latter has struggled with injury this season. Ozan Kabak and Kaan Ayhan are decent options to replace him. Much of the creative responsibility falls on Hakan Calhanoglu who currently has nine assists this season for AC Milan and tops the charts for Key Passes in Serie A. Burak Yilmaz leads the attack and, at 35, looks better than ever with his 16 goals helping Lille win the Ligue 1 title

Key Man: Yilmaz's recent hat-trick against the Netherlands highlighted his goalscoring threat. While Turkey will rely heavily on his goals, his all-round play is just as important. Outstanding hold up play and passing range are two of his key strengths.

One To Watch: With over 50 caps, Calhanoglu finds himself as one of the most senior members of this squad. He's adept at playing as a 10 or off the left and, at 27, will want to showcase his talent at this tournament.

Tournament Prospects: Turkey's first group game is against Italy in Rome, followed by two games in Baku. The travel schedule has been far less kind on Switzerland and this could prove significant when Turkey meet them in the final group game. Ultimately, they should make the knockout stage but lack the strength in depth in attacking areas to go deep.

How To Bet On Turkey: Turkey are being slightly underrated in this group. Defensive stability was key to their qualifying success and they can keep things very tight here. Turkey have raised their level to match better opposition in recent games and they will look to do the same again as they travel to hosts Italy in the opener. Turkey will fancy getting a win against Wales and play an evenly matched Switzerland in the final game. The Swiss face an undesirable travel schedule which could really benefit Turkey. Back Turkey to qualify from Group A at 8/15.

Wales - Bale is key again

Sam Kingston of the Betfair trading team thinks Gareth Bale's form will be key to Wales' chances repeating their heroics of 2016.

Profile:Wales achieved their best ever finish in an international tournament by some distance last time out, reaching the semi-finals of Euro 2016. The current side is quite similar to that one from five years ago and Wales may just well be the dark horse this tournament needs again.

How They Qualified: Their qualifying group actually included four sides who are at Euro 2020 - Croatia, Slovakia and Hungary. Wales finished second in the group behind Croatia, taking 11 points from their final five games, and sealing qualification with a 2-0 win at home to Hungary.

The Manager: After Ryan Giggs was charged with assault, it was confirmed that Robert Page will take the national team to the Euros. Page has previously managed Port Vale and Northampton, along with Wales U21s.

The Squad: It's likely Wales will play with a back three. They have plenty of options for wide players including Manchester United's Daniel James. Page likes to play a defensive midfielder along with a box to box man, so the combination of Ethan Ampadu and Aaron Ramsey should suit his tactics. The team will be built around Gareth Bale and he's likely to play up front alongside Kieffer Moore.

bale belgium.jpg

Key Man: Bale is arguably more important to his team than any other player in the competition, vital for goal scoring, creating chances and delivering set pieces. After a few years of warming the bench in Madrid, we're seeing glimpses of the player we knew back in 2014. If Bale can get back to his best in this tournament, Wales can cause a few shocks again.

One To Watch: Moore is coming here off the back of his best goal-scoring season, with 20 in 42 appearances for Cardiff City. A big target man, who can make defenders life very difficult, if he can complement Bale's quality alongside him, he may be vital to his team's chances.

Rising Star: Still only 23, James has appeared 21 times for Man United this season, scoring four goals. His lightning pace out wide gives Wales alternative options in attack to catch the opposition off guard.

Tournament Prospects: Wales play their opening two games in Baku, against Switzerland and Turkey, with their third game in Rome against Italy, a slight advantage as it will allow for less travel than Switzerland. If Wales finish second, they will play the runner up from Group B (Belgium, Denmark, Russia, Finland), which would be quite a winnable game. If they qualify in third place it could be a difficult last 16 game.

How To Bet On Wales: With Gareth Bale taking up a huge percentage of this market, there are decent options elsewhere. Look no further than Kieffer Moore. Wales may only score a couple of goals throughout the tournament, and with Moore the main man up top, it's quite possible he can bag a few.

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