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Euro 2012 Live: Germany v Italy

Mike Norman
28 June 2012

Germany are clear favourites to edge past Italy and set up a Final clash with Spain on Sunday

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Spain await the winners of tonight's second semi-final between Germany and Italy, and Mike Norman is on hand to guide you through all the In-Play betting markets as the match progresses.

"Please join us on Sunday for the final where Spain can be backed at 1.618/13 to win Euro 2012; Italy are into 2.6213/8."

21:42

That's all from me folks. Please join us on Sunday for the final where Spain can be backed at 1.618/13 to win Euro 2012; Italy are into 2.6213/8.

21:38 Full Time

Italy win 2-1 and are into the final to play Spain on Sunday night. It was thoroughly deserved in all honesty, Mario Balotelli the hero for the Italians. Germany were below par this evening, and in a competition of this magnitude if you underperform you go home.

21:36 GOAL!!!!

Germany 1, Italy 2. A Mezut Ozil penalty has given Germany a lifeline. Grandstand finish perhaps, two minutes to go. Over 2.5 Goals landed.

21:30

This has been a very surprising second half for me; Germany had a decent 10 minute spell at the start of it but since then they've created next to nothing. Italy have been brilliant, and so has that man Andrea Pirlo, who destroyed England a few days ago you'll remember.

21:28

Into the last five minutes also and a few corners for the Germans come to nothing. Reus was almost through on goal but a last ditch tackle preventing him from getting a shot at goal. Germany need two goals, but you wouldn't think so looking at how they are playing.

21:24

It probably is all over but it most certainly could/should have been just then. Germany are leaving holes all over the place and Italy are exploiting them; Di Natale the latest player to go clean through on goal only to put his shot wide.

21:20

Clasic Italy this, defending brilliantly, looking dangerous on the attack. Over 2.5 Goals out to 1.910/11 and I still fancy that, a goal is on it's way one feels, and probably to the Italians.

21:15

There'll be no hat-trick for Mario Balotelli as he limps off, but he'll have the comfort of being the match winner if Germany don't step up a gear very soon. They are offering nothing at the moment and the game is a bit lifeless. One goal will change all that though. Thomas Muller on for the Germans.

21:10

Nothing much for Germany in the last five minutes or so and time is beginning to run out. Italy are into 1.152/13 to win the game in 90 minutes. That's not a bet for me but they do look pretty comfortable right now.

21:06

Germany getting closer here, Reus has just had a wonderful free-kick tipped over by Buffon courtesy of the cross-bar. All we are asking is give us a goal... anyone... please. Thiago Motta is on for Italy and he'll add some more strength to that Italian midfield.

21:04

Opta have just informed me that Italy have yet to be rewarded a corner and no team in Euro 2012 has gone a full game without one.

21:03

This game is still finely balanced. A goal for Germany and they're right back in it; a goal for Italy and they're into the final. Reus and Klose have definitely made a difference and I think we'll definitely see another goal in this game, and probably soon.

Over 2.5 Goals can be backed at 1.351/3, which effectively means you're getting slightly better than 1/3 for one more goal at least to be scored. Yes please.

20:59

Ten minutes into the second half and it remains 2-0 to Italy.

Match Odds: Germany 17.5, Italy 1.251/4, The Draw 6.411/2

20:56

This Marco Reus chap has made an immediate impact and Germany look better going forward already. Lahm should have got a shot on target just then but he fired over from inside the box. The Alamo springs to mind - or at least that is what this second half might turn out to be, in Germany's favour obviously.

20:50

Marco Reus and Miroslav Klose are on for Germany, in place of Gomez and Podolski.

20:49

High-fives amongst the Italian media report the BBC, tears in the eyes of German fans. You'd have thought that no side has ever come back from two down in the history of the game. Get a grip people. This is not over by a long chalk. Second half about to commence.

Match Odds: Germany 13.5, Italy 1.292/7, The Draw 6.25/1

20:44

Next Goal - Germany 1.814/5, Italy 4.03/1, No Goal 4.84/1

In 31 games at the Euros, Italy have never scored more than two goals in a single match. You've been warned.

20:40

So that was a great 45 minutes of football, lit up by Mario Balotelli. Italy look good going forward, Germany look poor defensively but fine going forward themselves so surely more goals are in the offering here.

If you're in profit then I think laying Italy at 1.330/100 is worth a wager. They don't look great defensively themselves and if Germany get it going in attack we might just be in for a comeback.

20:33 Half Time

Germany 0 Mario Balotelli 2 - and you just know the Italian striker will milk this.

Match Odds: Germany 12.5, Italy 1.321/3, The Draw 6.05/1

20:30

We've had 13 shots so far, nine on target. What a difference from last night's borefest. Over 2.5 Goals is into 1.21/5 by the way and Over 3.5 Goals into 1.910/11. I hope you're on.

20:26

It's very bad news for Germany this scoreline. Apart from stating the blooming obvious (they are two down) the Germans have lost their last four games when they've been two goals down and they've never beaten Italy in a competitive game.

Match Odds: Germany 12.5, Italy 1.330/100, The Draw 6.611/2

20:23 GOAL!!!

He's definitely their top scorer now becuse he's just scored again. Wowzers x 2!

Brilliant finish from 20 yards out, smashed into the top corner. Did anyone see this coming?

20:20

Who is Italy's leading European Championship semi-final goalscorer? Well done if you said Mario Balotelli. That's right, Mario's goal is the first Italy have ever scored in a European Championship semi-final. Unbelievable Geoff!

About 10 minutes left to the interval - Match Odds: Germany 4.3100/30, Italy 2.1211/10, The Draw 3.3512/5

20:16

Agter that early-ish goal the Over 2.5 Goals option is into 1.768/11. There'll surely be more goals in this game... Germany have to score... don't they?

20:12

Opta have just informed me that Italy have won only two of their last six Euro games when they have scored first. That's not very promising is it? You can lay the Italians at 2.26/5 currently.

20:09

Match Odds: Germany 4.03/1, Italy 2.0621/20, The Draw 3.45

20:07 GOAL!!!

Mario Balotellllllllllllliiiiiii. Germany 0, Italy 1.

CAT AMONGST THE PIGEONS. Game on now. A simple header a few yards out and that man Mario - available to back at 11.010/1 to score first - puts his country in front.

20:05

I'm a great believer in loud atmospheres contributing to fast and exciting games. Well the atmosphere is about as quiet as it can be. But for a few whistles from time to time, and the sound of a few Germans slurping their beer, it's pretty lifeless. A shot from Montelivo does nothing to lift the atmosphere.

Match Odds: Germany 1.9720/21, Italy 4.94/1, The Draw 3.3512/5

20:01

Buffon spills one and Germany perhaps should be ahead. But they're not, and here's a bit of advice for you. Don't go lumping on the Germans when they have a corner as Opta have just informed me they haven't scored from a corner in a Euros Finals game since 1992. Wowzers!

19:59

Just over 10 minutes in, no goals, and the Under 2.5 Goals odds have quickly shrunk to 1.68/13. It only takes a second to score a goal though...

19:53

Cagey start, nothing to report (apart from a Hummels miss perhaps). The 0-0 Half Time Score can be backed at 2.466/4

19:50

A quick Opta stat for you. Germany have scored just one first half goal against Italy in their last five matches. Germany can be backed at 1.738/11 to score the Next Goal, though doesn't have to be in the first half for you to collect.

19:47

We're underway in the National Stadium in Warsaw. Who will hold their nerve, who will show their class? The next 90 minutes (or possibly 120) will tell us.

Match Odds: Germany 1.9420/21, Italy 4.94/1, The Draw 3.55/2

19:40

We've had two goalless 120 minutes of football in a row now so surely we're due a few tonight. Over 2.5 Goals is available to back at 2.447/5 if you believe we'll se at least three in the 90 minutes, or if you're a wishful thinker (or just plain mad) like me, then you can back Over 3.5 Goals at 4.67/2. That's worth a few quid surely. Kick-off next.

19:35

Ten minutes to kick-off so best I mention that popular First Goalscorer market.

Gomez is the favourite at 6.05/1 though it's interesting that substitute Miroslav Klose is a shorting price - 9.28/1 - to score first than Arsenal-bound Podolsk (9.89/1). The brilliant Mesut Ozil is next in at 14.013/1. If anyone deserves a goal tonight it's him, so that's where my cash is going.

For Italy Balotelli is their most fancied man to notch first at 11.010/1 ahead of Antonio Cassano (15.5) and Antoni Di Natale (16.015/1).

19:30

The guys at Opta have been at their number crunching best and you can read the best bits of their analysis of this game by clicking this link.

19:25

Much has been said about Germany's 15 game winning streak in competitive games, but they've never defeated Italy in seven attempts in a competitive fixture. Something has to give tonight then.

Match Odds: Germany 1.9720/21, Italy 4.94/1, The Draw 3.45

19:20

Giorgio Chiellini returns from injury for the Italians and that man Mario Balotelli keeps his place in the side.

Italy starting XI - Buffon, Chiellini, Balzaretti, Barzagli, Bonucci, Marchisio, De Rossi, Montelivo, Pirlo, Balotelli, Cassano

19:15

Michael Lintorn superbly discusses the headache facing Joachim Loew as the German boss ponders who to start with up front tonight. Read Michael's discussion here.

As for Loew himself he's pondering no more as he's gone for Mario Gomez and Lukas Podolski in attack.

Germany starting XI - Neuer, Hummels, Badstuber, Lahm, Boateng, Khedira, Schweinsteiger, Ozil, Kroos, Podolski, Gomez

19:10

Just a quick heads up to tell you that I've included links to some of our most popular markets at the top of this page. Clicking on Germany v Italy will take you directly to the Match Odds market, clicking on the Correct Score link will take you straight to the... well, I think you get the point.

19:05

A couple of Betfair Ambassadors for you now. First up is Mr Football himself, Harry Redknapp, who believes Germany will prevail tonight and set up that Germany/Spain final that he predicted (at a tasty 8.07/1) before the tournament commenced. Harry's going for 2-0 - advised at 9.28/1.

And what about Lee Dixon? Well he thinks Germany can win the whole thing, but fancies them to secure just a narrow victory tonight; 2-1 in fact is Lee's prediction - advised at 10.09/1.

19:02

After last night's dull affair we're all hoping for something better this evening and the bang in form James Eastham - who has had 15 winning bets from 20 selections at Euro 2012 - believes both sides will get on the scoresheet at least once. You can read James' full match preview here.

19:00

The National Stadium in Warsaw is the venue for tonight's second semi-final between Germany and Italy with Spain awaiting the winners after their penalty shoot-out victory over Portugal last night.

To win Euro 2012 - Spain 1.9110/11, Germany 2.829/5, Italy 7.87/1

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