Germany v Turkey / Dave Farrar / 24 June 2008 / Leave a comment

Dave Farrar has a strange feeling about Michael Ballack and reckons Turkey's luck will run out against Germany.

Match Odds

Having enjoyed the underdog throughout the tournament, I'm afraid that in this game we end up paying the price. Turkey have waged a thrilling campaign, and produced three finishes that have defied belief. The last of those wins, against Croatia, provided more drama than we could have imagined, but the fact remains that Croatia would have given Germany a much tougher test. Turkey have such a problem with injuries and suspensions that it's almost impossible to see them making it through to the final.
Their team has been ripped apart: the first choice goalkeeper Volkan, two of the top three central defenders, Emre, Asik and Servet, and the three exciting forwards, Tuncay, Nihat and most importantly Arda.

They will all be missing and it leaves Faith Terim, great coach that he is, with little or no option. Things are so bad that he has even spoken about using his third string goalkeeper, Tolga Zengin of Trabzonspor, as an emergency striker, and I don't think that he was joking.

The circumstances around the Turkish squad are a real shame, because normally you could have made a case for them to cause a shock in Basel. They have an admirable record against Germany, having won two of the last three matches between the two, and the local derby element that exists when these countries play always makes it more of a level playing field. Having looked at the likely personnel, I can't begin to make a case for Turkey, and while I feel that there'll be an upset in the second semi final, this one will go the way that form and fitness suggest. The players that Germany have at their disposal are simply too good for the ones that Terim can put out. Germany are currently trading at [1.47] to win in normal time, though, and that's very short and takes the absentees into account. I think that there's better value in the second semi final, and elsewhere in this game, so I'll leave that price alone.

Correct Score

The question to ask here is whether Germany will simply do what they need to, or whether they'll hand out the beating that they could to Turkey.

There's little doubt that Turkey will play defensively, and would probably take penalties if they were offered to them now. If Germany score an early goal, Turkey will have to come out and play a bit more, and that may leave them vulnerable. I can't honestly see Turkey scoring without their three key forward men, and so I'll go for Germany to cruise to a comfortable but not embarrassing win, by a 3-0 scoreline, at [11.0]

Half time

The shock of their quarter final performance against Portugal was the speed at which Germany came out in the first half. Jogi Low produced a tactical masterclass, and the beating that his team gave Scolari's Portugal must make Chelsea fans worry whether or not they have got the right man. I think that Germany will do exactly the same here, and expect them to get an early lead that they simply won't relinquish. Germany to be leading at half time at [2.02] is a much better price than what's available in the Match Odds market. This is where a considerable part of my stake will be going.

First goalscorer

I'm starting to get a strange feeling about Michael Ballack in Euro 2008. Not, I hasten to add, the same kind of feeling that my female friends have, but a strange one nonetheless. He has scored in Germany's last two games having been poor at the start of the tournament, and he and Andrei Arshavin are starting to look like the two men who could really stamp their authority on this tournament. Can Ballack score decisive goals in each of Germany's last four games and grab the title? I think that he can, as he is doing what all great players do. Finding his form at just the right time. Ballack is trading at [23.0] to finish as the tournament top goalscorer, and that may prove to be value, but I'll simply stick with him in this market for now, to score first at {7.6].

Corners

This isn't a market which I find particularly appealing. Both of these teams have won above average numbers of corners in Euro 2008, but not so above average that you want to go big on laying 9 corners or under. The nature of the game means that Turkey are not going to spend much time going forward, and the source of most of their width, the front three, are not playing, so we can't expect much from them. The only bet that would interest me is Germany in a corners match bet, but that looks short enough at the moment at {1.45]. If you could get around [1.6] matched, then that would be a good bet, but for now it's a market, with regret, to leave alone.

Tags: Corners, Correct score, First goalscorer, Germany v Turkey: Match odds, Half-time