Germany v Turkey / Matthew Walton / 24 June 2008 / Leave a comment

Have you got that feeling of déjà vu? Again!

Germany once again proving the doubters wrong as they stand on the brink of another championship final.

That said, how soon we forget that coming into this tournament the Germans were the clear favourites to win. How quick were we to be seduced (and abandoned) by the Portuguese and the Dutch? All along we should have known that Germany would be there at the business end of proceedings.

Now they are a mere 90 minutes away from the final. The only thing which stands in their way is a battered and broken Turkish side who may start the game with only 13 fit and eligible players. Unlucky for them.

But maybe we shouldn't be so dismissive of Fatih Terim's side. Maybe we should learn the lesson from our shunning of the Germans. This side has already overcome massive odds to get this far, why can't they record another great victory?

We shall have to wait and see which way it goes in Basel but what we can do in the meantime is to plot our path to profit - and there is money to be made from this match.

As is our way, we study these matches from two perspectives. Firstly, we will highlight the 10 Year Trends of each side. Looking at their record in competitive matches over the past decade.

Secondly, we examine the more peculiar details of head-to-head form, previous tournament results and managerial records, better known as the Match Facts.

Together this analysis is used to forecast the outcome of matches and, having employed this strategy throughout the group phase, we have to say it's been pretty successful.

So, we will discuss the outright match result, the correct score market, first goalscorer and also the Over/Under 1.5 goals market and then armed with this information you'll be ready to get stuck into the Betfair markets. Let us begin ...

Germany v Turkey - 10 Year Trends

These are all competitive matches since January 1998. No friendlies just World Cup qualifiers and finals plus Euro qualifiers and finals.

Germany - P67 W41 D17 L9 F122 A51, clean sheets 34/67 (50%)
Turkey - P73 W39 D21 L13 F129 A63, clean sheets 35/73 (47%)

There's no surprise to see Turkey trailing Germany in the key areas - but then again they trailed the Czech Republic and Croatia and we all know what happened there. Germany lead the win ratio by 61% to 53% and have only lost 13% of their games compared to the Turks 17%. Germany also score 1.82 goals/game and concede 0.76 goals/games whereas Turkey score 1.76 and concede 0.86. Fine margins but margins none the less which favour the Germans. Clean sheets, again, just side with Joachim Low's men.

Germany v Turkey - Match Facts

The divide between the two nations is wider when we consider the head-to-heads. Germany lead the 17 match series 11-3, with 3 draws. That's a 64% success rate for the pre-match favourites. However, Turkey have won 2 of the last 3 games - the last of which was back in 2005.

Given the fact that Turkish football has made great strides in the last 15-20 years it's easy to deduce that Germany did most of their winning way back when. More recent encounters have been close.

Mind you, such a proximity between the sides is widened by the statistics for the respective managers and the countries performance in previous championship finals. Germany win both hands down with Low having a much better record than his counterpart, Fatih Terim, and the nation as a whole being much more successful in the tournament's latter stages.

Germany v Turkey - Market Analysis

Outright result - at first glance Germany [1.47] don't look great value, certainly based on the above statistics. Even a 64% win rate would put them in at about [1.56]. The draw [4.8] is similarly on the short side. Around a point shy of the mark on past matches. The reason for both these skinny prices is down to the massive quote for Turkey [8.8].

There seem three main reasons for this. Germany's form in their last match against Portugal, their general form in big tournaments and Turkey's crippling losses to injury and suspension. Our view would be that if anything should sway you to back a German win it's this last point alone. Otherwise we'd back long-term data over short-term results every time.

Correct Score - Germany have scored in all their four matches, Turkey have conceded in all their four matches. Germany have kept a couple of clean sheets though. This could be the difference. And with the prevalence of the 2-0 scoreline in this tournament (7 of 28 group matches for 25%) we have to consider this option at [6.8]. It is the shortest price on offer but it is several points bigger than it should be.

Alternatives such as 1-0 [7.0] or 3-0 [11.0] have no great data to back them up. It may even be better to go for 'Any Unquoted' [8.6] which could see them score 4 ... or more!

First Goalscorer - Podolski [6.2] and Klose [7.0] are pretty close in terms of games/goals. A case could be made for either player or a split stake on both. Failing that Michael Ballack [8.6] is an option but his career strike rate suggests the price is none too generous.

Over/Under 1.5 goals - the 'over' has to be the call, whether [1.36] is a great price is more open to debate. However, given the fact that Germany do score and Turkey do concede there is every chance of multiple goals in this game. So far in this tournament Germany are over in 3 of 4 games and Turkey in 4 of 4. The case for a 0-0 or 1-0 either way is hard to make - at least on the basis of the available figures.

Conclusion

Having had a couple of recent matches where the statistics have been at odds with the popular view (Holland v Russia, Spain v Italy) here we have a match which offers a clear line of attack. Both are singing off the same hymn sheet.

Our only misgivings can be on account of the price. Germany are perhaps a tad skinny on the 90-minute market but they do seem the clear winners - whether you consider the data or the way in which the sides will line up.

You may well find the other markets afford better value for a match which has a familiar ring to it - Germany getting to another major final.

Tags: Euro 2008 bets, Euro 2008 betting, football satts, Michael Ballack