Germany v Turkey / Editor / 24 June 2008 / Leave a comment

Injury-ravaged Turkey go into this game as outsiders against a momentum gathering German side. But Stats onI Sport, so often the contrarians with the facts to back it up, reveal that Germany might not have it all their own way.

HT

Since World Cup '98, Germany have a solid W10-D15-L4 half-time record in major tournaments. The Mannschaft's group-stage game with Croatia was the first time they had been behind at the break since going down 1-0 to Portugal in the group stages of Euro '00 (W9-D11 to that point) and only the fourth time in that period they had conceded a first-half goal. In knockout matches, the Germans are unbeaten at the break since going down to Croatia in the quarter finals of World Cup '98. But they've only scored themselves in the first halves of only 3/11 since the beginning of that tournament.

Turkey are ravaged by injury and suspension, and Germany start as strong favourites to make it through to the final of Euro '08, but there's little statistical evidence to suggest the Germans will make the breakthrough in the first half. With further support for this view coming from Turkey's record of having been level at half-time in 10/11 competitive games against top-ten ranked teams, [2.48] looks a generous price for the half-time draw.

HT/FT

If you think this depleted Turkish side is going to upset the Germans in 90 minutes, there's little to choose between the D/L and L/L (6/13 of unified Germany's competitive defeats have been D/L). The more likely outcome is a German win, who have been ahead at the break in 10/16 tournament wins on neutral turf (2/3 at Euro '08). In the last decade however, Germany have sometimes struggled for first-half goals, scoring before the break in only 3/11 knockout-stage games.

Since the turn of the millennium, the Turks have been behind at half time in only 3/15 major-tournament matches, two of which they've turned around to win in Euro '08. Seven of the matches were goalless at the interval, of which Turkey went on to win none and lose three.

There's a robustness about Turkey's recent major-tournament record that makes the German D-W at [4.5] look value, although we retain concerns about the ability of injury-ravaged Turkey to hold out for that long.

Germany Clean Sheet

Germany have kept a clean sheet in exactly half (16/32) of their competitive games outside Germany since 2000 and the figure is similar (14/29) in their games at major tournaments since 1998, and these fractions are accurately reflected in the [1.93] price for the German clean sheet in this match.

Since Euro 2000, Turkey have found the back of the net in 9/15 matches at major tournaments. In all competitive matches outside their homeland, the Turks have scored in 11/14 under Fatih Terim, including 2/4 at Euro '08. Markets look well priced.

Turkey Clean Sheet

In all competitive games outside Germany since 2000, Germany have scored in 26/32, while at major tournaments since 1998 they have scored in 23/29. Meanwhile, Turkey's clean sheet in their quarter final with Croatia was their first of this tournament. Since Euro 2000, they've managed six in 15 major-tournament matches.

Whilst Germany's scoring record in Euro '08 matches so far - indicates that they should get on the scoresheet, at [1.16] Turkey are heavily priced to concede.

About the SOS Rankings
SOS consider FIFA's rankings unreliable, as they are based upon criteria clearly weighted to favour countries playing in weaker regional areas. SOS have therefore developed their own system of international football rankings, to give a more accurate guide of teams' relative strengths - and provide a more valid basis for their analysis.

The SOS rankings are based on a sample universe of more than 25,000 international matches, are updated every month, and attach a much greater weighting to both the relative importance of matches (friendly, competitive, major tournament) - as well as the relative strength of opposition and overall match supremacy. Allowance is also made for the game venue, not just in terms of simple home, away or neutral - but also in relation to the country's home continent. Points gained decay over a period of four years, the natural cycle of international football.

For the full SOS Rankings, click here, where you can also view previews for all matches.
All analysis, unless where noted, is based on competitive internationals since the start of the 1998 World Cup Finals.

Tags: Clean sheet, Germany v Turkey: HT, HT/FT