Germany v Turkey / Dan Fitch / 24 June 2008 / Leave a comment

Last week Dan Fitch predicted Turkey would be found out by Croatia but instead a never say die attitude imspired their best performance yet. As the Turks prepare to take another step too far, Dan recommends you bet in play.

Isn't it annoying when you're proved hopelessly wrong? Last week I speculated that against Croatia, the Turks would have to do better than their patented 'wait until everyone thinks that the game's over and then score in the last minute' routine.

Of course this was Turkey's cue to score their most ridiculously brilliant last minute goal yet. So I am now chastened and accept the reality that Turkey will score in the last minute of every game that they play in.

As good a tactic as this may be, one wonders if it can be improved upon. Perhaps by tinkering with the stadium clock, Fatih Terim could trick his players into thinking that the 65th minute was the last minute of the game and get them to score a bit earlier.

Regular readers of my articles (hello Mum) will remember that I drew Turkey in a sweepstake, but despite the potential of financial gain, I just can't bring myself to throw my weight behind them.

As an England fan, Turkey winning the European Championships would be a bit like bumping into a girl who'd dumped you, only to find they were now seeing someone far uglier than you. You could live with being rejected for someone who was better looking, but to taste failure only for someone even lower down the scale get the prize, is truly galling.

Of course, whilst I don't really want Turkey to win in the final, it would be hugely enjoyable if they could beat Germany. But this may prove a step too far for Turkey, though I'm aware that I said this when they played Croatia.

Turkey currently have so many players either injured or suspended that they're currently waiting to see if they get dispensation from UEFA to call up Ali and Mehmet Osman. They might even have to look into whether Boris Johnson is actually half Turkish, or whether he just said that so it wouldn't seem like he was a racist and people would vote for him.

Perhaps more importantly, the Germans looked very impressive against Portugal, having got rid of the leaden Mario Gomez for the swashbuckling Schweinsteiger. They took full advantage of Portugal's weakness in the air, which is an area where Turkey also have problems.

So does this all add up to an over 2.5 goals payout? Statistically it seems unlikely. Of the last six semi finals since 1996, only one has broken 2.5 goals.

Since the fall of the Berlin wall made a hero of David Hasselhoff and more importantly brought together a united Germany, there have been four matches between them and Turkey. Only one of these matches broke the 2.5 goals barrier, but it did come in the most recent clash, in 2005. Is the fact that two of these goals were scored in the last minute, an ominous sign for Germany, or a barely relevant coincidence? Only you can decide.

Both sides have a 50% record of over 2.5 goals in this tournament. These records are not representative of the tournament. Despite the good football that has been played, the goals have refused to flow.

Only 35% of games in this tournament have broken 2.5 goals. That compares to 53% of games up to the quarter final stage in 2004 and 2000. Even the low scoring Euro 96 managed 39% of overs by the quarters stage.

This could be a blip, but is most likely a consequence of teams clogging up their midfield and playing just one man up front. Such a system can be extremely attacking, with the right personnel in midfield, but too often it's employed as a precautionary measure.

Under 2.5 goals is the narrow favourite at [1.89], with overs available at [2.12]. Statistics point to it being unders and given Turkey don't seem to score until they hear the fat lady warming up her vocals, it might be prudent for anyone fancying overs to bet in play.

Tags: Germany v Turkey: 2.5 goals market