Market Under The Microscope / Dave Farrar / 03 June 2008 / 2 Comments

Dave Farrar dispels the myth that the top goalscorer of the competition must come from the winning side and tells us why he's including Mario Gomez, Karim Benzema and the enigmatic Antonio Cassano amongst his selections

There are many misconceptions about this market, the chief one being that the top goalscorer must come from the tournament's winning team. Not so. The last European Championship top scorer (outright winner, rather than the shared prize in 1992) who played for the winning country was Marco Van Basten in 1988, with five goals. In 1996, Alan Shearer came from the semi finalists England, and both Patrick Kluivert and Savo Milosevic in 2000, and Milan Baros in 2004, left the tournament before the final.

What you do need to look for, though, is the team which will top score in the tournament. That's a pretty obvious thing to say, but the winners don't necessarily get the most goals. Angelos Charisteas got more crucial goals than anyone in Euro 2004, including the winners in the quarter final and the final, and he was the key striker of the tournament, but he only actually scored three of Greece's seven, and Baros won with 5 (of the Czechs' 10), the two in the quarter final v Denmark tipping things his way.

In fact, in the last two Euros, this award has been won by the quarter final stage, the semis and the final rarely providing many goals. So, as long as your selection's team makes the quarters, then you're in business.

So which teams will get goals? Looking at qualifying, and the strength of the groups, those teams should be Germany, Portugal, France, Croatia, and Italy. I leave out Romania, because of their draw, and Spain, because they don't score many goals. Any bet on a Spanish player is fraught with danger, as Luis Aragones is such a frequent user of substitutes. Fernando Torres can't be value, although David Villa possibly is.

I've fancied Mario Gomez to star at Euro 2008 for a long time, and will stick with him, although my worry is that Germany have two other formidable goalscorers in the starting line up - the World Cup golden boot Miroslav Klose and Michael Ballack, who will take penalties. My Eurosport colleague Bryan Hamilton, an exceptional goalscoring midfielder himself, has urged me to go for Ballack - he feels that Ballack's time has come, and that he can get the five goals that he needs (probably) to win.

I know what he means, and he may be proved right, but only one midfielder has ever finished as the top scorer in a European Championship, and that was Michel Platini. Ballack is good, but he's not that good. I will, though, take a punt on Franck Ribery, who got 11 goals in his debut season for Bayern, and will play in an advanced position. He also takes penalties, and is three times Ballack's price.

France are intriguing, because, even though they have big names in the side, the selection of Bafe Gomis at the last minute shows how worried Raymond Domenech is about goalscoring. Aside from Ribery, Karim Benzema is head and shoulders above the other French strikers in terms of his stats this season, and his price is too big. Henry at 23, or Benzema at 34 - it's a no brainer.

There is only one possible winner from Portugal, and that's you know who. If Cristiano Ronaldo starts as a central striker, playing in between Quaresma and Simao, then I'll back him. But I'm going to wait and see before committing myself. Trying to get inside the mind of Big Phil is not something to risk money on.

I can't ignore Antonio Cassano. He may be perceived as an attacking midfielder, but he was in devastating form in front of goal at the end of the season for Sampdoria, and, even though he'll start as a sub, he'll be a likely replacement for Toto Di Natale up front, and can wreak havoc. He is also a big time player, likely to play even better in a major Championship than in a league season. Luca Toni is his rival, but I'm suspicious that he is a bit of a flat track bully. He was awful for much of the World Cup, before two goals against Ukraine gave his stats a false gloss.

My final piece of advice was going to be back Ivan Klasnic, at a likely (so I thought) 350. He's currently trading at 240, and I can't have him at that price after his illness. I do maintain, though, that if Klasnic is fit and firing, then he is a big danger in a good team, and so why not put up a tenner at 300 and see if you can get it matched. I would also advise having a saver on all my selections in the Top Goalscorer - Top 3 market. There is some value to be had there.

So that's the advice, although this market is as capricious as they come so keep stakes small. I wouldn't put you off Villa, Petric, Ballack, or even Mutu, but my selections are as follows:

Mario GOMEZ - back at 18

Franck RIBERY - back at 95

Antonio CASSANO - back at 240

Karim BENZEMA - back at 34

Ivan KLASNIC - back at 300 +

Tags: Euro 2008 bets, Euro 2008 betting, Mario Gomez, Michael Ballack