Market Under The Microscope / Nik Wardle / 29 May 2008 / Leave a comment

"Knowledgeable" Nik Wardle talks us through the "Group with the most goals" market and argues a case for Group B, where Austria can concede a hatful and Germany can score freely

A - Czech Republic, Portugal, Switzerland, Turkey. Odds: [4.2]

This group is the second favourite to have the most goals in it. Much of this is down to co-hosts Switzerland being in the group and the expectancy that they'll concede a few goals. Few expect them to progress to the knockout stages and before their recent 2-0 victory against Slovakia, they'd lost four straight games.

Ronaldo not only scored loads for Man United this season, he also scored eight goals in qualifying and you'd expect the likes of Deco, Nani, Quaresma and Simao, (never mind the aforementioned Ronaldo) to create plenty of chances. The Czech Republic are without Nedved and Rosicky and with an ageing Koller and an-out-of form Baros the probable strikers, may not be as free-scoring as they have been in the past.

Tuncay improved over the course of his first season at Middlesbrough but isn't a name you'd expect to top the goalscoring charts - and he's Turkey's main man up front.

B - Austria, Croatia, Germany, Poland. Odds: [2.86]

Having not qualified for a major tournament for a decade and rarely coming out in top in their friendly games in preparation for co-hosting the tournament, it all points to Austria being the whipping boys of this group and, hence, letting in lots of goals.

Germany's Klose has a habit of scoring against the weaker sides in tournament group games and he must be licking his lips about facing Austria. Germany are less cautious these days and I'd back them to score in every group game. Poland topped Portugal's group in qualifying but are more solid than flamboyant, so it's doubtful they'll score many.

Croatia will sadly be without Eduardo, of course, but new Tottenham signing Modric and Portsmouth's Kranjcar should fashion plenty of chances for the likes of Olic, Klasnic and Petric - all of whom play in the league which has the highest goals per game ratio in Europe: the Bundesliga. Petric in particular is a player who I think would do well in the Premiership.

C - France, Italy, Netherlands, Romania. Odds: [5.0]

When the bigger sides meet in the group stages, there's rarely a goal-fest, so I'm not surprised this group has the longest odds. Romania are seen by many as the weakest team in the group but, in fact, finished above Holland in qualifying and have Mutu at the fulcrum of their attack, and he's had an excellent season at Fiorentina.

The qualifying games between Holland and Romania saw just the one goal. France and Italy were also in the same qualifying group - the first game saw France win 3-1, the second was 0-0. With two pairs of sides knowing each other so well, there's a danger these sides may cancel each other out, this despite Italy having the top scorer in Serie A in Del Piero and the top scorer in the Bundesliga in Toni. France seem to think they have so much attacking talent available, that they even left Trezeguet behind but this doesn't necessarily mean they'll be free-scorers at Euro 2008.

D - Greece, Russia, Spain, Sweden. Odds: [4.3]

Russia only scored 18 goals in 12 qualifying games and seeing as they pack their midfield, are likely to want to nick games rather than trying to outscore opponents.

Ditto for Greece whose whole philosophy at Euro 2004 was to focus primarily on keeping clean sheets and treating scoring goals as an afterthought. Spain and Sweden are another pair who came through the same qualifying group. Both scored a good ratio of just under two goals per game in qualifying and both boast true world class strikers in Torres and Ibrahimovic.

With Torres playing for the better side, he's the more likely contender to be top goalscorer and I'd be surprised if he didn't get two or three goals in these group games. But with the so-called weaker teams in the group being well organised, I don't see there being too many high-scoring games.

To swiftly conclude, seeing as it's conceivable that Austria could lose all three of their games by two goals or more, I think Group B is the safe bet to be the one with the most goals in it. At [2.86] it's the clear favourite but it's certainly where my money is going.

Tags: Euro 2008 betting, Euro 2008 goals, football bets, Miroslav Klose